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Rocktober like the old days. Bridging to winter


weathafella

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Monday is mild, but we cool off Tuesday and Wednesday WRT highs. Lows are probably the ones that take a hit in the cool dept, hence why I said mild overall pattern yesterday for a few days next week. It's definitely not what I thought a few days ago, which is nice and has cooled over the last couple of days...the highs will probably not be that mild except maybe Monday, at least that's how it looks now. Tuesday into Wednesday will probably have cool highs for sure. My guess is the week may end up close to seasonal or even a bit below..depending on where you are I guess.

Going forward, I still think we need to watch that gradient pattern. It may try to sneak some cool shots in here after next week...although the ensembles still try to keep it north.

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Do the euro ensembles torch us in the long range?

No, they are maybe seasonal or a little above. They have cooled a bit, while the GEFS warmed a bit so as usual..a compromise. However, the possibility exists like we talked about yesterday...we may sneak in cooler wx with that block to our north. At the very least..the north plains could get chilly and perhaps over to you.

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MAV is going 30F for ORH on Saturday morning and MET is going to 28F...NWS also goes for 28. Definitely yesterday's NAM seems to be winning out for cold tomorrow night/Sat morning.

The average first freeze here is October 16 with a median date of October 18, so this would be a bit earlier than average. Earliest first freeze at the airport was Sept 25, 1950, latest is Nov 12, 1977 (who would have guessed this year?) . The record low for Oct 15th is actually 27F, so MET and NWS are going 1F off the record low.

We'll see how the guidance comes in today, but I'm still a tad skeptical of the airport hitting 20s.

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Nice split flow pseudo-block on the Euro helps make that coastal happen the way it does.

06z GFS is almost comical in the LR too with a 570 block in the Davis straight/Baffin Island. 06z

Still looks like more troughing in the West/Alaska than we've seen so far this October. I could see a long-term warm-up for much of the country even if the Northeast sees a coastal keeping temperatures cooler.

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