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Rocktober like the old days. Bridging to winter

weathafella

By weathafella,
in New England

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weatherwiz

weatherwiz

Posted
Posted

Enjoy as boredom returns after mid month.

The pattern will be dormant for a period but I don't think it will be for too long. Seems like the theme lately is we get active troughs working into the country and things become active for a period then the pattern relaxes for a bit and we do it all over again.

One thing I like so far though is we're getting some decent cold building up in central Canada and with ridging in the E PAC extending into the GOA with troughing developing into central Canada this should allow for some episodes of colder air to work in (similar to what we will see this upcoming weekend)...if we can continue this into the end of October and into November that could make for some fun potential for us, especially if the jet stream stays active.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

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The pattern will be dormant for a period but I don't think it will be for too long. Seems like the theme lately is we get active troughs working into the country and things become active for a period then the pattern relaxes for a bit and we do it all over again.

One thing I like so far though is we're getting some decent cold building up in central Canada and with ridging in the E PAC extending into the GOA with troughing developing into central Canada this should allow for some episodes of colder air to work in (similar to what we will see this upcoming weekend)...if we can continue this into the end of October and into November that could make for some fun potential for us, especially if the jet stream stays active.

Canada will warm a little going forward, but no blow torch up there which is good. We may get a chance towards the end of the month to reload if some of the medium range progs are right, but that is in la-la land right now.

And while we may become seasonal to a little above after mid month, there is still troughing hanging around the east. So that says to me that it may offer the opportunity to have more coastal storms....maybe....at that time, while the colder air stays north. That's fine with me. Even the long range pattern would work in the winter.

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weatherwiz

weatherwiz

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Canada will warm a little going forward, but no blow torch up there which is good. We may get a chance towards the end of the month to reload if some of the medium range progs are right, but that is in la-la land right now.

And while we may become seasonal to a little above after mid month, there is still troughing hanging around the east. So that says to me that it may offer the opportunity to have more coastal storms....maybe....at that time, while the colder air stays north. That's fine with me. Even the long range pattern would work in the winter.

I do like the idea of a coastal storm towards the end of the month...even next week. Not necessarily talking about snow but we've seen some pretty intense storm systems this fall and I don't see why that shouldn't continue. The Arctic jet and sub-tropical jet don't really look to weaken anytime soon and both have been quite strong which has been a major reason for such intense systems earlier on. Anytime though we have cold air built to our north we definitely have a shot but these next 2-3 weeks will be quite interesting. I know it's early but I'd rather have things looking like they are now than the complete opposite.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

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I do like the idea of a coastal storm towards the end of the month...even next week. Not necessarily talking about snow but we've seen some pretty intense storm systems this fall and I don't see why that shouldn't continue. The Arctic jet and sub-tropical jet don't really look to weaken anytime soon and both have been quite strong which has been a major reason for such intense systems earlier on. Anytime though we have cold air built to our north we definitely have a shot but these next 2-3 weeks will be quite interesting. I know it's early but I'd rather have things looking like they are now than the complete opposite.

Seems like there is something to be said for coastals in October. Not all the time, but I'd like to see it more often than not.

Again, it might not happen that way....but something I could see after mid month. Maybe even a cutoff type look?

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weatherwiz

weatherwiz

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Seems like there is something to be said for coastals in October. Not all the time, but I'd like to see it more often than not.

Again, it might not happen that way....but something I could see after mid month. Maybe even a cutoff type look?

There is some research out there that shows having a fair amount of coastals in the spring is a sign for the winter so let's hope that works out!

It definitely might not happen at all...that's what makes medium and long range forecasting all the more fun. You can recognize the pattern and nail it down but good patterns don't always translate to good results.

A cutoff type lock would be really interesting. It will be interesting as well to see how active MJO activity becomes...some decent waves coming out of the Indian Ocean it appears but don't appear to really stay in tact.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

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This post is for LL...

We are absolutely torching up here. It's 60F at 7am here and thats the low since midnight. If that holds, that's a +21 on the min.

SLK is 61F right now with a low of 59F at 1,600ft. That's like a +25-30.

Yesterdays climate report is pretty good...MPV with a +17 on the min, but only +1 on the high with 62/56 hi/lo. MVL put up the same +17 on the minimum and a +2 for the high.

BTVs warning area is generally starting the month with some +10F departures...seems we do this every month. We need that OP ECMWF cold shot at day 8 to reverse this warmth. I bet today is another +10 at least given low temps right now that are +20 to +30. It's warmer than it was yesterday morning.

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snowman21

snowman21

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This post is for LL...

We are absolutely torching up here. It's 60F at 7am here and thats the low since midnight. If that holds, that's a +21 on the min.

SLK is 61F right now with a low of 59F at 1,600ft. That's like a +25-30.

Yesterdays climate report is pretty good...MPV with a +17 on the min, but only +1 on the high with 62/56 hi/lo. MVL put up the same +17 on the minimum and a +2 for the high.

BTVs warning area is generally starting the month with some +10F departures...seems we do this every month. We need that OP ECMWF cold shot at day 8 to reverse this warmth. I bet today is another +10 at least given low temps right now that are +20 to +30. It's warmer than it was yesterday morning.

BTV has the most variable temperatures of any of the New England sites if you look at standard deviations of monthly departures. It's not quite like a Midwestern site, but it is different than a place near the water like BDR, BOS, PVD, or PWM. You can start off the month +10, but you also have a shot at some big negative departures to balance it out.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

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BTV has the most variable temperatures of any of the New England sites if you look at standard deviations of monthly departures. It's not quite like a Midwestern site, but it is different than a place near the water like BDR, BOS, PVD, or PWM. You can start off the month +10, but you also have a shot at some big negative departures to balance it out.

I assume you are talking about BTV proper vs their entire CWA, but yeah it's location on the far northwestern edge of New England puts it furthest from the ocean of any site, and it's also west of the mountains that guard New England from the rest of the country.

It is a neat climate in that it is so highly dependent on wind flow...south and north winds funnel with increasing speed up and down the valley between 4-5K terrain in NY and 4K in VT. On a south wind BTV will be much warmer than a place further south and east like ORH, but yet on a north wind they can be brutally cold from low level air oozing down the valley that struggles to make it east of the Spine.

FROPAs in the winter are the most impressive because there's nothing stopping the air out of Canada behind a front. Also BTV will warm more than anywhere else ahead of the front...the temperature changes can be crazy and that's probably why this area gets great squalls. While east of the mountains it's a more gradual CAA and those areas don't warm up as much to begin with, but in December BTV can pull off the 50F to 10F in a matter of a few hours, while east it might take all night to go from 40F to 15F with the same FROPA.

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Mr Torchey

Mr Torchey

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Posted

This post is for LL...

We are absolutely torching up here. It's 60F at 7am here and thats the low since midnight. If that holds, that's a +21 on the min.

SLK is 61F right now with a low of 59F at 1,600ft. That's like a +25-30.

Yesterdays climate report is pretty good...MPV with a +17 on the min, but only +1 on the high with 62/56 hi/lo. MVL put up the same +17 on the minimum and a +2 for the high.

BTVs warning area is generally starting the month with some +10F departures...seems we do this every month. We need that OP ECMWF cold shot at day 8 to reverse this warmth. I bet today is another +10 at least given low temps right now that are +20 to +30. It's warmer than it was yesterday morning.

Just mind numbing, one day we might see a stretch of negative departures like that, what an eye opener that will be. Next week looks chilly, then the pattern should relax later in the month with possibly more positive departures on the way.

I guess it makes for good leaf peeping. Enjoy it!

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snowman21

snowman21

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Just mind numbing, one day we might see a stretch of negative departures like that, what an eye opener that will be. Next week looks chilly, then the pattern should relax later in the month with possibly more positive departures on the way.

I guess it makes for good leaf peeping. Enjoy it!

Next week isn't that chilly. Looks like by Tuesday we're back in the 60s. Sunday/Monday will be the big departure days, and even those days may not crack -10 (maybe -8 or -9?), at least around here. This won't be that impressive of a cold shot, but when your dew points in the morning are higher than your normal high for the day, anything will feel a lot cooler.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

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I like the forecast for town on Monday...mostly sunny with a chance of snow showers and a high near 50F. Somehow the snow showers don't seem to fit with the sky cover and temps, lol..not even rain or snow, just snow. Ahh gotta love the P/C forecasts.

Columbus Day: A chance of snow showers. Mostly sunny, with a high near 50. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

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