Ginx snewx Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 PF 4-8? Euro liking some Mansfield upslope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 It could actually be kind of cold here next week for a few days with that high there in Quebec. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 It could actually be kind of cold here next week for a few days with that high there in Quebec. But I thought it was a torch starting next week till the end of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 It's just the tree species...living at 1k has nothing to do with more color than the CT Valley. Just ask Scott and Ginx. Actually it's not the tree species or elevation, but rather the poor soil factor. On a side note it's clearing a bit here with the rain ending and sunshine filtering through the clouds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 It could actually be kind of cold here next week for a few days with that high there in Quebec. AWT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 Neggy NAO doing its job muting and squelching any mild ups Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 But I thought it was a torch starting next week till the end of the month. Nope torch will be muted FTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 the euro ensemble mean isn't as cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 that cold high depends on the tuesday storm amplifying and this run backed off from 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 Actually it's not the tree species or elevation, but rather the poor soil factor. On a side note it's clearing a bit here with the rain ending and sunshine filtering through the clouds. You must have missed the other night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 If that coastal low can develop, it will definitely mute the warmer weather next week. That was modeled as a warm period until yesterday, but shorter wavelengths and blocking can do that. Still not certain, but at the least..a high nearby will limit day time temps..even if night temps are mild. That was the overall warmer look that I mentioned this morning, but that coastal low could put a wrench into it. I still think going forward, we need to watch that -NAO/AK ridging/-PNA pattern and the gradient look. While it probably will be mild here...we could either have the whole gradient shift south (somewhat unlikely) or have more alternating warm-cool-warm type of action. If we had that pattern in December, most definitely we probably would be rejoicing north and east of Tolland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 If that coastal low can develop, it will definitely mute the warmer weather next week. That was modeled as a warm period until yesterday, but shorter wavelengths and blocking can do that. Still not certain, but at the least..a high nearby will limit day time temps..even if night temps are mild. That was the overall warmer look that I mentioned this morning, but that coastal low could put a wrench into it. I still think going forward, we need to watch that -NAO/AK ridging/-PNA pattern and the gradient look. While it probably will be mild here...we could either have the whole gradient shift south (somewhat unlikely) or have more alternating warm-cool-warm type of action. If we had that pattern in December, most definitely we probably would be rejoicing north and east of Tolland. Models just starting to catch on to the gradient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 yeah. Well aware of that. I'm on my phone and it was a pain to retype what I meant. Obviously the perturbations come off of the initial control. I don't really know why I mentioned them. It's one of those space cadet days. We've all had those days! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 Models just starting to catch on to the gradient. It's one of those things where looking at mean 11-15 day pattern...it sort of screams bust potential near the Canadian border, east of the GL. However, it is October and you can't necessarily apply that logic to the pattern going forward. I do think it merits at least mentioning the possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 Cold begets cold. WarmSST will screw the coast but inland folks watch out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 67 sunny skies absolutely gorgeous~ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 52.5F and sheet rain. Awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 52.5F and sheet rain. Awesome. I have a sheet rain fetish. A very efficient rain process and It adds up rather nicely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 I have a sheet rain fetish. A very efficient rain process and It adds up rather nicely. I like it too. It's like hitting a wall of small droplets when you step outside. It's probably borderline drizzle...just a dense amount of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 Personally think "weather" a coastal develops or not we're getting false warm weather signals anyway. Flows likely to end up more NW and could be strong through central Canada with a tanking NAO happening in tandem with an onsetting +PNA. Also, may not be done monitoring the tropics this season either. High res sat shows 97L might try to Bahama bomber. There's also the east of Leewards system - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 Personally think "weather" a coastal develops or not we're getting false warm weather signals anyway. Flows likely to end up more NW and could be strong through central Canada with a tanking NAO happening in tandem with an onsetting +PNA. Also, may not be done monitoring the tropics this season either. High res sat shows 97L might try to Bahama bomber. There's also the east of Leewards system - I think early next week does warm up. I guess the question is how that storm effects the pattern, but may cause a traffic jam overhead and keep cooler high pressure nearby for a few days anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 Maybe Tippy Tropical Trouble gets involved with storm next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 At this point I don't care much about warm or cold. 40s, 50s, 60s, 70s, doesn't matter. I would just like some sun lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 Yup A hard freeze looks like a good bet for much of CT SAT AM as temps could dip into the mid-20s across some inland areas. wxedge.com/articles/20131… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 Was looking at archives on foliagenetwork site, and I can't find a year since 1999 further along than right now at this point. Latest update has coastal locations into moderate - 30 to 61% change, which is definitely a solid week early. The pattern for foliage has been great the past month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 Brown grass weather saturday morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 Was looking at archives on foliagenetwork site, and I can't find a year since 1999 further along than right now at this point. Latest update has coastal locations into moderate - 30 to 61% change, which is definitely a solid week early. The pattern for foliage has been great the past month. Pretty much peak in most areas around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trapperman Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 So which model is right? GFS with it's bomb and huge cold shot/eastern trough or Euro with the weaker system and neg pna/gradient pattern? Hmmm? FWIW, GGEM has a 985 over northern MN at the same time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 NOAA forecast now has a low of 24 Friday night. Previous cold temperature was 36....serious cold shot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 Definitely a gradient look to the models. If the -PNA relaxes, it would be a lot cooler here...but it seems like we'll have to battle the big west coast trough. If this were winter...I'd take it in a heartbeat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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