NJwinter23 Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 GEFS? You need something to run ensemble perturbations off of. Then you have other global scale features that some would argue it has some skill in. d16 is definitely a crapshoot synoptically, but no met would seriously put stock in any details it shows past d10. If every run in the extended keeps showing similar teleconnection indices then maybe that is something you have to keep in the back of your mind as well. Other than that, it provides us plenty of nerdy meteorological laughs. Well you don't need the GFS op to run in the 11-15 day in order to run the GEFS through the 11-15..the perturbations come in the initial conditions of course...The euro ensembles as you may know go out to 360 hrs despite the op only going to 240. I agree with your points though. The details such as storm threats are quite useless, however, occasionally you will see the 11-15 day op latch onto a pattern for a few runs in a row (IE an intense cold shot for the central/east with variations in the day-to-day details) and you can sense that it is definitely onto something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 GFS trying to get a low east of us, but in the process...tries to drive a very brief. cool shot mid week next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 The GFS shouldn't be run out to 1 day. Noone should be using it for any of their forecasts. It is garbage Take out the trash Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 Wonder how much the recurving typhoon east of Japan will impact the weather beyond next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scoob40 Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 Wonder how much the recurving typhoon east of Japan will impact the weather beyond next week. Your question should be directed to the Sultan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 Meanwhile, nasty sheet rains on my way into work just now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 The op 12z GFS has it pretty chilly in the NE at the end of the run, Waiting to see if the Ensembles have it as well out to 216 so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 Skies have cleared and its turned into a beautiful day, so nice to see the sun again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 Sun breaking out here now-up to 62 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 GFS trying to get a low east of us, but in the process...tries to drive a very brief. cool shot mid week next week. sneaky scooter cold shot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 socked in the sheet drizzle here. fun times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 socked in the sheet drizzle here. fun times. Ask me if I'm surprised that todays forecast of showers has been steady ra- all day here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 Well you don't need the GFS op to run in the 11-15 day in order to run the GEFS through the 11-15..the perturbations come in the initial conditions of course yeah. Well aware of that. I'm on my phone and it was a pain to retype what I meant. Obviously the perturbations come off of the initial control. I don't really know why I mentioned them. It's one of those space cadet days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 My area is 100% peak color currently. Even the Oaks have changed. About 1 week early or so. I work down in North Haven for the next few months until home 4 days a week and still only about 50% color in the valley and down 91 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 man these are some cold recent runs of the GFS... By the way, it's a sad, sad day for America. Mongo, the horse punching lurch from Blazing Saddles died Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 Skies have cleared and its turned into a beautiful day, so nice to see the sun again. Send some up this way, I am in Ashford/Union area and drizzle/light rain most of the day! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 Sunny 66/59 down here in key west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 Meanwhile, nasty sheet rains on my way into work just now. Same here... lovely day. Wind blown small droplet rains and 49F at home, 39F top of the mountain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 My area is 100% peak color currently. Even the Oaks have changed. About 1 week early or so. I work down in North Haven for the next few months until home 4 days a week and still only about 50% color in the valley and down 91 It's just the tree species...living at 1k has nothing to do with more color than the CT Valley. Just ask Scott and Ginx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 Ask me if I'm surprised that todays forecast of showers has been steady ra- all day here. yesterdays forecast in the winter would have been a big snow bust, today's call for showers,.24 so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 It's just the tree species...living at 1k has nothing to do with more color than the CT Valley. Just ask Scott and Ginx. WTF you throwing me in with that I said nothing on that subject. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trapperman Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 man these are some cold recent runs of the GFS... By the way, it's a sad, sad day for America. Mongo, the horse punching lurch from Blazing Saddles died Semi-Octobomb in the "believeable" range. Just a few hundred miles north od the last one lol, and I guess you can't compare a 210kt 250 jet to 160 kts, but still, that's a storm. I suppose it's the next NAO block... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 Both the Euro and the GFS have the MJO moving into phases 8 or 1 in the next two weeks, which would support below normal temperatures in the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 Just found this on the PBS site: Part 2 next week on NOVA...how Hawinton, CT took the next step from getting more snow than Princeton, MA to having a shorter growing season than Pittsburg, NH all in less than a year. After the show, stay tuned for an insider look at how Tolland, CT mesonet temperature stations have a super-adiabatic lapse rate between 700 and 1,000 feet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 Both the Euro and the GFS have the MJO moving into phases 8 or 1 in the next two weeks, which would support below normal temperatures in the east. Precipitous drop in AO and NAO by months end, -EPO, -PNA gradient cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 Just found this on the PBS site: LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 man these are some cold recent runs of the GFS... By the way, it's a sad, sad day for America. Mongo, the horse punching lurch from Blazing Saddles died Mongo don't know, got to do where cho-cho go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 Just found this on the PBS site: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 Windexxxy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 the euro came back to reality for day 6. that storm on last night's run was garbage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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