Baroclinic Zone Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 Sup gang. Crappy day out there with the drizzle/-ra. Been raw the last couple days, Looks like widespread frost advisories will be hoisted for Friday night, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 I doubt you'll be in the 20s Saturday morning. Although, with your Davis that is too cold..maybe. lol, bad sitting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 BYE2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 I'll settle for low-40s Friday night. Maybe we can squeeze out a 39. Very little chance at frost this early - even up at BDR the first 36F temperature has a 30% chance of occurring by the 12th of October (each additional 10% in probability equates to 3 days later at BDR). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 Positioning of sfc high pressure is more favorable for NJ/PA/NY to get down into the 20s. Much of SNE will probably have trouble decoupling Friday night, though the valleys should go calm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 I'll settle for low-40s Friday night. Maybe we can squeeze out a 39. Very little chance at frost this early - even up at BDR the first 36F temperature has a 30% chance of occurring by the 12th of October (each additional 10% in probability equates to 3 days later at BDR). I think many places in low lying areas will have scattered frost, remember pics or it did not happen, I am hoping to write Kevins names in frost on my windshield! (and the date and time of course) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 Of course Friday night will have to be freezing. Now I'll have to wear my winter jacket to the Whale game. It pisses me off b/c it's a major pain to bring it and carry it around. I usually try not to but i hate walking and shivering like a cat going into shock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 I think many places in low lying areas will have scattered frost, remember pics or it did not happen, I am hoping to write Kevins names in frost on my windshield! (and the date and time of course) There will be frost in Fairfield County. I'd be surprised if it happens in the 95 corridor, but back country, and places like New Canaan, Wilton, just about anyone from the parkway (which roughly divides the northern and southern Fairfield County zones) north should be able to do it. This is a run of the mill cold air mass for mid-October, and frost and freezes aren't unusual for the date (in fact we're running a little late in Connecticut this year). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 I hope this rain isn't going to be ongoing all day...I have to go to a few places. it always has to rain out when I have things to do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 Wind will probably be a factor here on friday night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 What is the EURO doing next week, Nor'easter / subtropical hybrid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 I hope this rain isn't going to be ongoing all day...I have to go to a few places. it always has to rain out when I have things to do. Of course Friday night will have to be freezing. Now I'll have to wear my winter jacket to the Whale game. It pisses me off b/c it's a major pain to bring it and carry it around. I usually try not to but i hate walking and shivering like a cat going into shock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 Hahaha this is too good... watch this SkitheEast.net weather video from Tim Kelley from this morning. At 30 seconds in... "This is the track we want for snow in southern New England... but who really cares about snow in southern New England." http://www.skitheeast.net/posts/id/1643260318/tim-kelley-snowcast-october-week-2 This outta get you guys going... Discuss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 Hahaha this is too good... watch this SkitheEast.net weather video from Tim Kelley from this morning. At 30 seconds in... "This is the track we want for snow in southern New England... but who really cares about snow in southern New England." http://www.skitheeas...-october-week-2 This outta get you guys going... Discuss. In a ski forum why would SNE matter, it does matter to your bosses though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 In a ski forum why would SNE matter, it does matter to your bosses though. I get it... its just funny because knowing Tim, he would do anything to get another Jan 2005 and/or storms that just pummel the south shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 Can't believe no one posted the October 2011 Redux storm on the 00z GFS... accuracy score is about the same as the CFS, lol. Maybe this is the winter that breaks the October snowfall equals crap winter mentality... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 48/46 ra- These past two weeks have been a suck stretch of weather for W. NE I would just like two days of sun in a row. Dry begets dry. 49/48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 I'll settle for low-40s Friday night. Maybe we can squeeze out a 39. Very little chance at frost this early - even up at BDR the first 36F temperature has a 30% chance of occurring by the 12th of October (each additional 10% in probability equates to 3 days later at BDR). Yeah its still pretty early for most of CT, RI, and parts of MA to see a solid frost. Maybe in a few weeks. Looking at a low near 25 up here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 Can't believe no one posted the October 2011 Redux storm on the 00z GFS... accuracy score is about the same as the CFS, lol. Maybe this is the winter that breaks the October snowfall equals crap winter mentality... Just what we need...blow our load early again this year and watch as we go +6 for DJF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 Wind will probably be a factor here on friday night Agreed, though with the date and the forecast 850s, that would mean 28 at my place rather than 22. (Had 25 yest morning.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 I get it... its just funny because knowing Tim, he would do anything to get another Jan 2005 and/or storms that just pummel the south shore. I love Tims weather , ski and surf my kind of guy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 Can't believe no one posted the October 2011 Redux storm on the 00z GFS... accuracy score is about the same as the CFS, lol. Maybe this is the winter that breaks the October snowfall equals crap winter mentality... We're all too smart to fall for this GFS bs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 Some average first frost / freeze dates across Connecticut... BDR - Oct 18 / Nov 4 Burlington - Sep 28 / Oct 10 Danbury - Sep 26 / Oct 9 Falls Village - Sep 16 / Sep 27 Groton - Oct 8 / Oct 19 BDL - Sep 30 / Oct 9 Mansfield Hollow Lake - Sep 20 / Oct 1 Norfolk 2 SW - Sep 22 / Oct 5 Norwich Pub Util Plant - Sep 29 / Oct 11 Shepaug Dam - Sep 28 / Oct 5 Stamford 5 N - Oct 1 / Oct 12 Storrs - Oct 2 / Oct 16 West Thompson Lake - Sep 19 / Oct 2 Data from NCDC publication Climatography of the U.S. No. 20. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeanInWayland Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 We're all too smart to fall for this GFS bs. OK, stupid question here, but why does the GFS go out 16 days? (at least, since that's what the posted forecast was) Not being snarky, just curious. What's the value of pushing it out that far? Is there any residual info left in the forecast at that point? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 OK, stupid question here, but why does the GFS go out 16 days? (at least, since that's what the posted forecast was) Not being snarky, just curious. What's the value of pushing it out that far? Is there any residual info left in the forecast at that point? there is no value at all OP GFS past day 8 is a crapshoot..ensembles give you a better idea on days 8-16..but to look at the OP GFS past day 8 is entertainment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 OK, stupid question here, but why does the GFS go out 16 days? (at least, since that's what the posted forecast was) Not being snarky, just curious. What's the value of pushing it out that far? Is there any residual info left in the forecast at that point? GEFS? You need something to run ensemble perturbations off of. Then you have other global scale features that some would argue it has some skill in. d16 is definitely a crapshoot synoptically, but no met would seriously put stock in any details it shows past d10. If every run in the extended keeps showing similar teleconnection indices then maybe that is something you have to keep in the back of your mind as well. Other than that, it provides us plenty of nerdy meteorological laughs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 I'll also add that it is valuable to keep pushing the envelope with modeling. We continually improve resolution, initialization, modeling equations, etc and we see the improvements yearly in the error scores. In the mid 90s, d7 on the MRF was probably closer to our d9 or so now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 some odd orange disc just appeared in the sky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 OK, stupid question here, but why does the GFS go out 16 days? (at least, since that's what the posted forecast was) Not being snarky, just curious. What's the value of pushing it out that far? Is there any residual info left in the forecast at that point? The GFS shouldn't be run out to 1 day. Noone should be using it for any of their forecasts. It is garbage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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