radarman Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 48/46 ra- These past two weeks have been a suck stretch of weather for W. NE I would just like two days of sun in a row. Thursday and part of Friday last week were decent. Other than that, it's been brutal. Bring the freeze, bring the snow, please. Enough of this garbage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 I will say it is possible the milder air could be muted in the coming two weeks, but in a gradient like pattern. Why? Well, we have a weak -NAO and also ridging into AK albeit weak. At the same time we have a -PNA trough in the west trying to torch us. The EC of course wants to torch us...the GEFS try to warm us as well, but of course aren't as -PNA happy like the EC is. Perhaps it's a combo of bias here. EC happy -PNA and GEFS not strong enough with the -PNA? Regardless, it's possible we could have alternating warm-cool-warm instead of all out warm thanks to progressive storms....or perhaps the entire gradient slides south. So for now, I do think it's milder overall...but there are a few things to monitor as we go out into the next week. It doesn't change the fact that overall pattern isn't great. I would think are warmups would only be very brief and short lived and only occur when we're dealing with storm systems cutting to our west and the return flow being more southerly/southwesterly would pump up some milder air. Other than that we should be predominately normal to even slightly below at times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 Are the EC ensembles known to have a bias with forecasting too much of a -PNA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 Are the EC ensembles known to have a bias with forecasting too much of a -PNA? You're getting a late start, but you could still give Kevin a battle for WOTY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 You're getting a late start, but you could still give Kevin a battle for WOTY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 I will say it is possible the milder air could be muted in the coming two weeks, but in a gradient like pattern. Why? Well, we have a weak -NAO and also ridging into AK albeit weak. At the same time we have a -PNA trough in the west trying to torch us. The EC of course wants to torch us...the GEFS try to warm us as well, but of course aren't as -PNA happy like the EC is. Perhaps it's a combo of bias here. EC happy -PNA and GEFS not strong enough with the -PNA? Regardless, it's possible we could have alternating warm-cool-warm instead of all out warm thanks to progressive storms....or perhaps the entire gradient slides south. So for now, I do think it's milder overall...but there are a few things to monitor as we go out into the next week. It doesn't change the fact that overall pattern isn't great. Good summary. The strong onshore flow out west in combination with the developing Greenland blocking lends credence to the EC's coastal storm next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 I would think are warmups would only be very brief and short lived and only occur when we're dealing with storm systems cutting to our west and the return flow being more southerly/southwesterly would pump up some milder air. Other than that we should be predominately normal to even slightly below at times. Well after this weekend...I actually think it will be above...but I may be wrong if we manage cutoff type deals or if the gradient sags south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 Once you win WOTY you are not eligible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 Well after this weekend...I actually think it will be above...but I may be wrong if we manage cutoff type deals or if the gradient sags south. With the gradient so close by it will be quite difficult to really gauge whether or not we will be predominately above or below normal. I think overall it will be tough to be average much above given the presence of colder air to our north and west and we'll see cold fronts shoot through ushering in periods of cooler air. I guess it will just depend on what's more intense, the cooler air that works in or the warmer air that moves in. Also, with the gradient so close by just subtle changes in the NAO/PNA state could make quite a difference so if models are having difficulties handling each phase and the strength the models are going to have a tough time depicting where the gradient actually ends up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 With the progged blocking any major mild up is gonna be muted as we get closer. Those calling for Indian summer are going to be disappointed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 Good summary. The strong onshore flow out west in combination with the developing Greenland blocking lends credence to the EC's coastal storm next week. It may be something where the parent low moves north of us with a front moving through...but the front stalls offshore and a low forms. At that point, the question is where does the front stall. I could buy the euro, but I'm not so sure it develops so close to the coast. I wouldn't mind seeing a good storm...hope it's more right than wrong. The reason why I brought up the gradient idea, is because the op runs sort of suggest that. Yes, I know it's the op runs....but despite their wild swings...I found they sometimes can suggest a pattern idea. For instance a couple of weeks ago..they had those crazy polar plunges and while they are not to the extent as modeled, it had the "idea" anyways. That's how I usually treat the op runs. If they continue to hint at warm ups or cool downs...they may be on to something. Just do not take them literally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 55/54 light rain disgusting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 55/54 light rain disgusting A/C on? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 A/C on? Why would my air conditioner be on? If the dew was above 65 you bet your ass, funny funny guy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 With the progged blocking any major mild up is gonna be muted as we get closer. Those calling for Indian summer are going to be disappointed. Agreed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 Models starting to change, -AO, -NAO, -PNA, MJO forcing. Cold brief Mild up then cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 Too bad that cold blast Friday is a 1 day shot. If it were timed better, we could radiate and have widespread 20s Friday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 Sultan XXX incoming? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 Why would my air conditioner be on? If the dew was above 65 you bet your ass, funny funny guy. Sounds like the pattern is getting to you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 Too bad that cold blast Friday is a 1 day shot. If it were timed better, we could radiate and have widespread 20s Friday night. Windex for the lucky NNE and elevations though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 Too bad that cold blast Friday is a 1 day shot. If it were timed better, we could radiate and have widespread 20s Friday night. We are gonna have widespread 20's Friday nite. Only the coast and big cities wont Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 Update on how this year is progressing temperature wise.......... Bangor Maine.....2nd warmest ever Boston .........Warmest year ever recorded Bridgeport.........Warmest year ever recorded Burlington VT...........warmest year ever recorded Buffalo NY ..........waarmest year ever recorded Caribou Maine........3rd warmest ever Concord NH.........2nd warmest ever Hartford.......Warmest year ever recorded NYC(Central Park) LGA JFK all Warmest years ever in recorded times Philly ..........Warmest Ever Pittsburgh......Warmest ever Worchester Mass..........Warmest year ever recorded ***This is through September this year*** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 Update on how this year is progressing temperature wise.......... Bangor Maine.....2nd warmest ever Boston .........Warmest year ever recorded Bridgeport.........Warmest year ever recorded Burlington VT...........warmest year ever recorded Buffalo NY ..........waarmest year ever recorded Caribou Maine........3rd warmest ever Concord NH.........2nd warmest ever Hartford.......Warmest year ever recorded NYC(Central Park) LGA JFK all Warmest years ever in recorded times Philly ..........Warmest Ever Pittsburgh......Warmest ever Worchester Mass..........Warmest year ever recorded ***This is through September this year*** Where do you find this out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 Where do you find this out? NOAA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 You're getting a late start, but you could still give Kevin a battle for WOTY. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 TORCH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 It may be something where the parent low moves north of us with a front moving through...but the front stalls offshore and a low forms. At that point, the question is where does the front stall. I could buy the euro, but I'm not so sure it develops so close to the coast. I wouldn't mind seeing a good storm...hope it's more right than wrong. The reason why I brought up the gradient idea, is because the op runs sort of suggest that. Yes, I know it's the op runs....but despite their wild swings...I found they sometimes can suggest a pattern idea. For instance a couple of weeks ago..they had those crazy polar plunges and while they are not to the extent as modeled, it had the "idea" anyways. That's how I usually treat the op runs. If they continue to hint at warm ups or cool downs...they may be on to something. Just do not take them literally. Stalled front... precisely. Whether a wave forms on it remains to be seen. The blocking should be pretty far east into Greenland, and given the MJO associations you posted yesterday, I think it may be reasonable to expect the flow off the pacific to exceed progs, especially ensemble progs. With little to no amplification in the great basin, there should be a lot of momentum to force a front east near the coast. I'd suspect things to verify flatter than the euro op east of the Mississippi, with a weaker primary, but I could definitely see that front hanging out for a couple days with possible disturbances. Not the pattern for a big wound up coastal, but something offshore wouldn't surprise me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 We are gonna have widespread 20's Friday nite. Only the coast and big cities wont I doubt you'll be in the 20s Saturday morning. Although, with your Davis that is too cold..maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 Update on how this year is progressing temperature wise.......... Bangor Maine.....2nd warmest ever Boston .........Warmest year ever recorded Bridgeport.........Warmest year ever recorded Burlington VT...........warmest year ever recorded Buffalo NY ..........waarmest year ever recorded Caribou Maine........3rd warmest ever Concord NH.........2nd warmest ever Hartford.......Warmest year ever recorded NYC(Central Park) LGA JFK all Warmest years ever in recorded times Philly ..........Warmest Ever Pittsburgh......Warmest ever Worchester Mass..........Warmest year ever recorded ***This is through September this year*** BSE2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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