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Rocktober like the old days. Bridging to winter


weathafella

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EC ensembles still pretty mild in the 11-15 day. Not a massive blow torch, but that -PNA will ensure the west is cool for now if they are right. I don't mind since heights near AK are at least zonal to even a little above normal.

Good, I hope it continues or get even higher their

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Earliest date of shoveling a roof?

Most of the snow melted except a few patches in extreme shaded areas... but of course the drifts on the roof weren't going anywhere. The guys are doing some work on the roof and needed to clear the remaining snow; I'm certain I've never seen anyone shovel a roof earlier than October 9th, lol.

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Why is that guy shoveling a roof that has hardly any snow on it?

lol... they needed it clear to continue their work. The only snow left was a few drifts in spots but that drifted snow is stubborn to melt. It was pretty funny seeing a guy shovel the roof for a couple 6-inch wind rows on an otherwise clear roof.

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The UK forum has great nuggets to mine and I believe Glacier Point posts here. This is his take on what a strong amp MJO progression will look like in two weeks.

http://forum.netweat...ttach_id=141299

Interesting. 18z GFS a little different but not by much. fantasy land but still...

http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2012&model_mm=10&model_dd=09&model_init_hh=12&fhour=324&parameter=WSPD&level=500&unit=MB&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false

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I will say it is possible the milder air could be muted in the coming two weeks, but in a gradient like pattern. Why? Well, we have a weak -NAO and also ridging into AK albeit weak. At the same time we have a -PNA trough in the west trying to torch us.

The EC of course wants to torch us...the GEFS try to warm us as well, but of course aren't as -PNA happy like the EC is. Perhaps it's a combo of bias here. EC happy -PNA and GEFS not strong enough with the -PNA? Regardless, it's possible we could have alternating warm-cool-warm instead of all out warm thanks to progressive storms....or perhaps the entire gradient slides south.

So for now, I do think it's milder overall...but there are a few things to monitor as we go out into the next week. It doesn't change the fact that overall pattern isn't great.

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Yeah the ens had no semblance of it. Hence the lol in my post. I guess I have to be careful what I post though or else a week from now some will be asking "where is the euro's storm and cold?"

Oh I know....it was meant as a jab to Kevin of course. I do see hints at it....hopefully it does happen.

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