radarman Posted October 9, 2012 Share Posted October 9, 2012 This time of year, those correlations aren't terribly strong...especially if the wave is not coherent. However, if the models are right...it may be coherent enough to have a say in tipping the northern hemispheric pattern one way or another. The weird thing is that many October Ninos are usually cooler than normal, but one can argue this almost doesn't classify as one...or barely so. I just posted it for giggles. It's interesting anyways. If the models are correct...I wouldn't mind seeing this move east and perhaps push some westery winds past the dateline. I'm not so sure that wil happen. One thing that chart definitely did suggest is that the -PNA might not be going anywhere for a while, but most mets have been on top of that for a week or more anyway. The negative anomalies in NW canada for phase 8 are pretty impressive. edit- Will say I'd have expected slightly greater negative anomalies in the Rockies though for a true -PNA. Maybe more of a compressed jet look, which might equal pac firehose? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 9, 2012 Share Posted October 9, 2012 One thing that chart definitely did suggest is that the -PNA might not be going anywhere for a while, but most mets have been on top of that for a week or more anyway. The negative anomalies in NW canada for phase 8 are pretty impressive. It's fun to watch the correlations for the MJO change with the season as the wavelengths change. Just getting back in the loop after a week of no weather. Didn't seem to miss much lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 9, 2012 Share Posted October 9, 2012 Apparently SPC is adding an "enhanced" risk to bridge slight and moderate. They may convert see text to marginal. This is sort of funny because I've been doing the same thing on air. Low/enhanced/significant/extreme. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 9, 2012 Share Posted October 9, 2012 Question for scooter With the weak ridging that the euro ensembles show over NW Canada, does it also have weak troughing over the n plains into the lakes? :weenie: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 9, 2012 Share Posted October 9, 2012 Apparently SPC is adding an "enhanced" risk to bridge slight and moderate. They may convert see text to marginal. This is sort of funny because I've been doing the same thing on air. Low/enhanced/significant/extreme. To be honest, I'm not sure the benefit of this new change. I guess perhaps because the outlooks don't really sway me any which way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 9, 2012 Share Posted October 9, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 9, 2012 Share Posted October 9, 2012 Man, these operational runs are all over the place! You got the 00z CMC threatening a D10 run with an EC 'cane, the 12z GFS indicating that D10-15 goes to winter from the NP to NE and sustains some serious cold anomalies... Actually, the 00z Euro hinted at the CMC - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 9, 2012 Share Posted October 9, 2012 To be honest, I'm not sure the benefit of this new change. I guess perhaps because the outlooks don't really sway me any which way. I generally don't like the categorical outlooks either. I really don't think they're the best way to convey a threat as we've discussed before on here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 9, 2012 Share Posted October 9, 2012 Ahh, yes. The annual GFS op run featuring both snow and an offshore tropical system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted October 9, 2012 Share Posted October 9, 2012 Sign of the times, cool nights have sent Zoysia into dormancy:( Perfect fall day out here cool and overcast a true gem to work in! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 9, 2012 Share Posted October 9, 2012 Ahh, yes. The annual GFS op run featuring both snow and an offshore tropical system. haha - I know, but I think you meant GGEM ? every year, the GGEM tries to phase a TC into a mid latitude blizzard at least once per autumn. if you go back and look at GGEM runs from 7 or so days before the big December storm of 2003, that had a TC/Blizzard hybrid hyper bomb on the Va Capes. anyway, the run about doesn't do that, per se, but it is interesting that it implies an EC threat and then the GFS goes to winter shortly thereafter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 9, 2012 Share Posted October 9, 2012 haha - I know, but I think you meant GGEM ? every year, the GGEM tries to phase a TC into a mid latitude blizzard at least once per autumn. if you go back and look at GGEM runs from 7 or so days before the big December storm of 2003, that had a TC/Blizzard hybrid hyper bomb on the Va Capes. anyway, the run about doesn't do that, per se, but it is interesting that it implies an EC threat and then the GFS goes to winter shortly thereafter. The 12z GFS has a TC pretty far offshore, but it was tied to a deep trough plowing through the East Coast. I suppose the merit of a TC trying to develop is there given some favorable teleconnections. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted October 9, 2012 Share Posted October 9, 2012 The 12z GFS has a TC pretty far offshore, but it was tied to a deep trough plowing through the East Coast. I suppose the merit of a TC trying to develop is there given some favorable teleconnections. major Greenland block after day 10 on GFS..keeps us cooler toward the end of the month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 9, 2012 Share Posted October 9, 2012 major Greenland block after day 10 on GFS..keeps us cooler toward the end of the month The EC had some blocking too, but I can't trust the GFS op. The GEFS were a little cooler....we'll see of the EC follows suit. It would take a substantial shift in the overall pattern to flip what is progged and I don't see it for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 9, 2012 Share Posted October 9, 2012 The end of the 12z GEFS had another cold pool loading into western and central Canada Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 9, 2012 Share Posted October 9, 2012 This is a pretty nasty looking -AO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 9, 2012 Share Posted October 9, 2012 OMG - ORH will have 3 days in a row of belwo normal temps! yawn Feels good to actually wear a sweatshirt in the house Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 9, 2012 Share Posted October 9, 2012 Heat has been on at nite for 2 days now. Was down into the upper 50's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 9, 2012 Share Posted October 9, 2012 Heat has been on at nite for 2 days now. Was down into the upper 50's I have been in the 30's several nights and have not turned it on yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 9, 2012 Share Posted October 9, 2012 Heat has been on at nite for 2 days now. Was down into the upper 50's Heat? Not needed yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 9, 2012 Share Posted October 9, 2012 Heat? Not needed yet Poorly insulated home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 9, 2012 Share Posted October 9, 2012 Still have the A/C's in the windows.............. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 9, 2012 Share Posted October 9, 2012 Heat has been on at nite for 2 days now. Was down into the upper 50's That's where its supposed to be. I've got mine set at 56F right now. Heat shouldn't be on if you're near 60F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 9, 2012 Share Posted October 9, 2012 EC ensembles still pretty mild in the 11-15 day. Not a massive blow torch, but that -PNA will ensure the west is cool for now if they are right. I don't mind since heights near AK are at least zonal to even a little above normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 9, 2012 Share Posted October 9, 2012 Anything gbelow 64 inside is chilly. With young kids you run heat or risk sleeping outside from wrath of wife Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 9, 2012 Share Posted October 9, 2012 Winter continues to slowly settle in... lot more snow icons showing up in the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 9, 2012 Share Posted October 9, 2012 Anything gbelow 64 inside is chilly. With young kids you run heat or risk sleeping outside from wrath of wife That's true, I'll give ya that. With kids in the house and a wife... its not your decision, lol. Living by myself, I'll save on the heat and just put a hoodie on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 9, 2012 Author Share Posted October 9, 2012 Anything gbelow 64 inside is chilly. With young kids you run heat or risk sleeping outside from wrath of wife I finally pulled out my daughter's a/c last night under her protest. Just like her mother...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 9, 2012 Share Posted October 9, 2012 Anything gbelow 64 inside is chilly. With young kids you run heat or risk sleeping outside from wrath of wife lol, Good point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 9, 2012 Share Posted October 9, 2012 One thing for sure right now Friday overnight into Saturday AM is going to be a chilly one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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