CoastalWx Posted October 9, 2012 Share Posted October 9, 2012 Looking at the forecast for the Whites Friday night into Saturday, into the teens for a low and mid 30s at 4k for a high. That oughtta get the blood flowing during my walk. Looks like winds will at least lighten up a big heading into Saturday, but cold it will be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted October 9, 2012 Share Posted October 9, 2012 Looks like winds will at least lighten up a big heading into Saturday, but cold it will be. That's good news, cold won't bother me. Winds were ripping pretty good on Saturday, probably upwards of 40mph gusts above treeline, but it was warm. Think I'd like a nice calm sunny day on the ridge for a change. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted October 9, 2012 Share Posted October 9, 2012 Looks like winds will at least lighten up a big heading into Saturday, but cold it will be. Hoping it will be dry one, last weekend for racing and a long weekend at that. We race until 10pm on Sat and the track is in one of those hollows that is always cool. Ready to break out the lined jeans! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 9, 2012 Share Posted October 9, 2012 That's good news, cold won't bother me. Winds were ripping pretty good on Saturday, probably upwards of 40mph gusts above treeline, but it was warm. Think I'd like a nice calm sunny day on the ridge for a change. lol I mean, they still might be blowing at a decent clip, but things are all relative when you are at 4k or higher..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 9, 2012 Share Posted October 9, 2012 What a bust on the rain. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted October 9, 2012 Share Posted October 9, 2012 I mean, they still might be blowing at a decent clip, but things are all relative when you are at 4k or higher..lol. lol ... yeah, I should've placed an asterisk on "calm". 20 mph would be nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted October 9, 2012 Share Posted October 9, 2012 Yawn after this weekend. Looks mild. For how long? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 9, 2012 Share Posted October 9, 2012 AWT..Freeze watches and warning will be flying to the coast on Fri nite.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 9, 2012 Share Posted October 9, 2012 For how long? For a while, maybe until the end of the month. It won't be a torch the whole time, but just a mild pattern in general I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 9, 2012 Share Posted October 9, 2012 Euro busted on rain today as did many forecasts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 9, 2012 Share Posted October 9, 2012 Euro busted on rain today as did many forecasts Euro really had no rain for you. If anything..maybe a little too wet here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted October 9, 2012 Share Posted October 9, 2012 For a while, maybe until the end of the month. It won't be a torch the whole time, but just a mild pattern in general I think. Do the euro ensembles have that Alaska ridge in the extended like the GEFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 9, 2012 Share Posted October 9, 2012 Do the euro ensembles have that Alaska ridge in the extended like the GEFS? Not really. Just accept the milder wx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 9, 2012 Share Posted October 9, 2012 There is actually weak ridging in NW Canada and a weak -NAO signal, but a rather stout -PNA too. Given shorter wavelenmgths this time of year, it's probably allowing for milder wx. Maybe the last week of the month cools down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted October 9, 2012 Share Posted October 9, 2012 Time to embrace ROCKTOBER and enjoy the middle finger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted October 9, 2012 Share Posted October 9, 2012 Seems as though the horses will indeed be let out of the gate after all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted October 9, 2012 Share Posted October 9, 2012 you guys should watch the live feed of the guy jumping from the stratosphere. He'll probably go up in around an hour. http://newschoolers.com/ns/forums/readthread/thread_id/712249/ its somewhere in there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 9, 2012 Share Posted October 9, 2012 you guys should watch the live feed of the guy jumping from the stratosphere. He'll probably go up in around an hour. http://newschoolers....read_id/712249/ its somewhere in there that guy is nuts! Amazing if he succeeds... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 9, 2012 Share Posted October 9, 2012 Euro really had no rain for you. If anything..maybe a little too wet here. the euro moved away from it yesterday at 12z---the GFS also backed away--it was the NAM that held on and busted... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted October 9, 2012 Share Posted October 9, 2012 that guy is nuts! Amazing if he succeeds... I'm hoping he doesn't blow into pieces on live feed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 9, 2012 Share Posted October 9, 2012 Both Mike. It looks way too far NW with the rain today, despite some showers possible this morning. lol, Its never to early to start tossing it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 9, 2012 Share Posted October 9, 2012 Check out the MJO progs. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml Now check out to what they correlate to temp wise. So, the "Nino" phases on october are sort of warm here. However, nothing wrong with seeing the wave which has been sort of stagnant, fire into the Nino phases. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted October 9, 2012 Share Posted October 9, 2012 Is it looking to be in the 60's and 70's here in Northern Connecticut next week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 9, 2012 Share Posted October 9, 2012 I see the 0z GFS has a TC in the long range SW of Bermuda fwiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 9, 2012 Share Posted October 9, 2012 Check out the MJO progs. http://www.cpc.ncep....clivar_wh.shtml Now check out to what they correlate to temp wise. So, the "Nino" phases on october are sort of warm here. However, nothing wrong with seeing the wave which has been sort of stagnant, fire into the Nino phases. Also note that these are FWIW. 2 weeks out would mean progs centered around the 20th and it's possible the correlations may shift around a bit. However, per Allan Huffman....his correlations also argue for that too. Shorter wavelengths in the Fall can sometimes lead to screwy correlations....or none at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted October 9, 2012 Share Posted October 9, 2012 Check out the MJO progs. http://www.cpc.ncep....clivar_wh.shtml Now check out to what they correlate to temp wise. So, the "Nino" phases on october are sort of warm here. However, nothing wrong with seeing the wave which has been sort of stagnant, fire into the Nino phases. Interesting post. Seems like for this area at this time of year the MJO isn't all that good an indicator, perhaps due to the shorter wavelengths you mention, but of course the one phase that there does seem to be a decent correlation (with warmth) is phase 8 and that is where we're headed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 9, 2012 Share Posted October 9, 2012 How much lead time did we have last Oct for the two end of month snow events? Was it about 2 weeks where models started picking up on it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 9, 2012 Share Posted October 9, 2012 Interesting post. Seems like for this area at this time of year the MJO isn't all that good an indicator, perhaps due to the shorter wavelengths you mention, but of course the one phase that there does seem to be a decent correlation (with warmth) is phase 8 and that is where we're headed. This time of year, those correlations aren't terribly strong...especially if the wave is not coherent. However, if the models are right...it may be coherent enough to have a say in tipping the northern hemispheric pattern one way or another. The weird thing is that many October Ninos are usually cooler than normal, but one can argue this almost doesn't classify as one...or barely so. I just posted it for giggles. It's interesting anyways. If the models are correct...I wouldn't mind seeing this move east and perhaps push some westery winds past the dateline. I'm not so sure that wil happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 9, 2012 Author Share Posted October 9, 2012 How much lead time did we have last Oct for the two end of month snow events? Was it about 2 weeks where models started picking up on it? It was pretty far out but mostly within a week. I DO NOT WANT! I'm still convinced for BOS measurable in October is bad news. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted October 9, 2012 Share Posted October 9, 2012 Question for scooter With the weak ridging that the euro ensembles show over NW Canada, does it also have weak troughing over the n plains into the lakes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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