Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,584
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    LopezElliana
    Newest Member
    LopezElliana
    Joined

Rocktober like the old days. Bridging to winter


weathafella

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 2.1k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Looks like winds will at least lighten up a big heading into Saturday, but cold it will be.

Hoping it will be dry one, last weekend for racing and a long weekend at that. We race until 10pm on Sat and the track is in one of those hollows that is always cool. Ready to break out the lined jeans!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

That's good news, cold won't bother me. Winds were ripping pretty good on Saturday, probably upwards of 40mph gusts above treeline, but it was warm. Think I'd like a nice calm sunny day on the ridge for a change. lol

I mean, they still might be blowing at a decent clip, but things are all relative when you are at 4k or higher..lol.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Check out the MJO progs.

http://www.cpc.ncep....clivar_wh.shtml

Now check out to what they correlate to temp wise. So, the "Nino" phases on october are sort of warm here. However, nothing wrong with seeing the wave which has been sort of stagnant, fire into the Nino phases.

post-33-0-65285400-1349787178_thumb.gif

Also note that these are FWIW. 2 weeks out would mean progs centered around the 20th and it's possible the correlations may shift around a bit.

However, per Allan Huffman....his correlations also argue for that too. Shorter wavelengths in the Fall can sometimes lead to screwy correlations....or none at all.

post-33-0-35048300-1349788998_thumb.gif

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Check out the MJO progs.

http://www.cpc.ncep....clivar_wh.shtml

Now check out to what they correlate to temp wise. So, the "Nino" phases on october are sort of warm here. However, nothing wrong with seeing the wave which has been sort of stagnant, fire into the Nino phases.

post-33-0-65285400-1349787178_thumb.gif

Interesting post.

Seems like for this area at this time of year the MJO isn't all that good an indicator, perhaps due to the shorter wavelengths you mention, but of course the one phase that there does seem to be a decent correlation (with warmth) is phase 8 and that is where we're headed.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Interesting post.

Seems like for this area at this time of year the MJO isn't all that good an indicator, perhaps due to the shorter wavelengths you mention, but of course the one phase that there does seem to be a decent correlation (with warmth) is phase 8 and that is where we're headed.

This time of year, those correlations aren't terribly strong...especially if the wave is not coherent. However, if the models are right...it may be coherent enough to have a say in tipping the northern hemispheric pattern one way or another. The weird thing is that many October Ninos are usually cooler than normal, but one can argue this almost doesn't classify as one...or barely so. I just posted it for giggles. It's interesting anyways.

If the models are correct...I wouldn't mind seeing this move east and perhaps push some westery winds past the dateline. I'm not so sure that wil happen.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

How much lead time did we have last Oct for the two end of month snow events? Was it about 2 weeks where models started picking up on it?

It was pretty far out but mostly within a week.

I DO NOT WANT! I'm still convinced for BOS measurable in October is bad news.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...