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Rocktober like the old days. Bridging to winter

weathafella

By weathafella,
in New England

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

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ORH_wxman

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Posted 12 March 2010 - 10:19 AM

snapback.pngCoastalWx, on 12 March 2010 - 10:18 AM, said:

Might as well drink heavily anyways and forget about this weekend. What a disaster.

I might announce my retirement from meteorology after this storm.

lol he lost it then. Absolutely lost it
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forkyfork

forkyfork

Posted
Posted

Yes there are some things that I don't like, but give it several weeks before throwing in the towel. Maybe it doesn't work out and we look back and say October started to look like sh*t, or we look back in February and laugh at our concerns. It's just way too early.

we're probably going to punt december and you know it

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

we're probably going to punt december and you know it

I actually would agree if we had more of a

Niño developing. I envision a +NAO. But I kind if agree with Will regarding that the pattern in

December could be Nina-like if we get Aleutian ridging. So I really couldn't say right now. I'll be more concerned if the AK low hangs around through November.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

Tim Kelly mentioned Weds night and Fri night as potential flake producers

God bless him... he is so ready for snow, just like the rest of us.

He was up to visit last week and we hung out on top for a bit... he posted his photos on NECN's website. He got a few of the back of my head, thanks Tim ;)

http://www.necn.com/...005&feedID=6239

And this video called Three Meteorologists from the base of Stowe near the golf course...Eric Fisher from TWC, Weir Lundstedt (WINDEX and FAA), and Tim Kelley... can't wait to ski with this guys again this winter. Always a lot of fun to talk weather and make some turns.

Three guys talking squirrels and other good news for the winter haha.

http://www.skitheeas...d/789629179/550

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Tropopause_Fold

Tropopause_Fold

Posted
Posted

God bless him... he is so ready for snow, just like the rest of us.

He was up to visit last week and we hung out on top for a bit... he posted his photos on NECN's website. He got a few of the back of my head, thanks Tim ;)

http://www.necn.com/...005&feedID=6239

And this video called Three Meteorologists from the base of Stowe near the golf course...Eric Fisher from TWC, Weir Lundstedt (WINDEX and FAA), and Tim Kelley... can't wait to ski with this guys again this winter. Always a lot of fun to talk weather and make some turns.

http://www.skitheeas...d/789629179/550

i want in on that. lol

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

Moisture to the east. Signs of things to come I guess.

Someone posted a CFS image that looked to show that with wet anomalies over the Maritimes... that would argue for some swinging east and then going negative a bit later, fantastic for eastern areas.

I've said it a few times this fall, but I've just got that gut feeling that we'll be watching BOS-PWM cleaning up while just inland is flurries and dim sun.

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dendrite

dendrite

Posted
Posted

Moisture to the east. Signs of things to come I guess.

I actually would agree if we had more of a

Niño developing. I envision a +NAO. But I kind if agree with Will regarding that the pattern in

December could be Nina-like if we get Aleutian ridging. So I really couldn't say right now. I'll be more concerned if the AK low hangs around through November.

SWFE Dec followed by ENE specials thereafter? Tough winter for those in SW New England.
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dendrite

dendrite

Posted
Posted

Areas in the midwest got into teens last night...impressive

Some records were shattered in E SD and NW IA. Lots of low to mid 10s.

RECORD EVENT REPORT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD

823 AM CDT SUN OCT 7 2012

...RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE SET AT SIOUX CITY IA...

AT 548 AM CDT...THE TEMPERATURE AT SIOUX GATEWAY AIRPORT IN SIOUX

CITY IOWA FELL TO 15 DEGREES. THIS BROKE THE RECORD LOW FOR OCTOBER

7TH...WHICH WAS PREVIOUSLY TIED AT 23 DEGREES FROM 1974 AND 2000.

$$

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dendrite

dendrite

Posted
Posted

Ydy highs and this AM's lows...damn cold.

ASUS63 KFSD 071238
RTPFSD
MAX/MIN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLE FOR
SE SOUTH DAKOTA/SW MINNESOTA/NW IOWA/NE NEBRASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
738 AM CDT SUN OCT 7 2012
VALUES REPRESENT HIGHS YESTERDAY...LOWS OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS
AND PRECIPITATION OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS
.BR FSD 1007 C DH01/TAIRZXZ/DH07/TAIRZPZ/PPDRZZZ/SFDRZZ/SDIRZZZ
:
:					   MAX	 MIN			   SNOW  SNOW
:ID    LOCATION		 TEMP    TEMP	 PCPN	 FALL DEPTH
:
: SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...
:
BKX :BROOKINGS SD   :    43  /   21   /   0.00  /  0.0 /   0
9V9 :CHAMBERLAIN SD :    47  /   25   /   0.00  /  0.0 /   0
HON :HURON SD	   :    48  /   19   /   0.00  /  0.0 /   0
MHE :MITCHELL SD    :    48  /   27   /   0.00  /  0.0 /   0
MDS :MADISON SD	 :	 M  /    M   /   0.00  /  0.0 /   0
FSD :SIOUX FALLS SD :    48  /   22   /   0.00  /  0.0 /   0
YKN :YANKTON SD	 :    46  /   21   /   0.00  /  0.0 /   0
:
: SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...
:
LYV :LUVERNE MN	 :    45  /   18   /   0.00  /  0.0 /   0
DVP :SLAYTON MN	 :    41  /   21   /   0.00  /  0.0 /   0
MJQ :JACKSON MN	 :    43  /   23   /   0.00  /  0.0 /   0
MML :MARSHALL MN    :    43  /   25   /   0.00  /  0.0 /   0
PQN :PIPESTONE MN   :    41  /   21   /   0.00  /  0.0 /   0
TKC :TRACY MN	   :    42  /   25   /   0.00  /  0.0 /   0
MWM :WINDOM MN	  :    45  /   18   /   0.00  /  0.0 /   0
OTG :WORTHINGTON MN :    43  /   19   /   0.00  /  0.0 /   0
:
: NORTHWEST IOWA...
:
CKP :CHEROKEE IA    :    47  /   15   /   0.00  /  0.0 /   0
LRJ :LE MARS IA	 :    45  /   12   /   0.00  /  0.0 /   0
ORC :ORANGE CITY IA :    45  /   21   /   0.00  /  0.0 /   0
SHL :SHELDON IA	 :    46  /   14   /   0.00  /  0.0 /   0
SUX :SIOUX CITY IA  :    48  /   15   /   0.00  /  0.0 /   0
SPW :SPENCER IA	 :    46  /   13   /   0.00  /  0.0 /   0
SLB :STORM LAKE IA  :    43  /   25   /   0.00  /  0.0 /   0
.END
THESE DATA ARE PRELIMINARY AND HAVE NOT UNDERGONE FINAL QUALITY
CONTROL BY THE NATIONAL CLIMATIC DATA CENTER /NCDC/. THEREFORE...
THESE DATA ARE SUBJECT TO REVISION. FINAL AND CERTIFIED CLIMATE DATA
CAN BE ACCESSED AT WWW.NCDC.NOAA.GOV.

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Allsnow

Allsnow

Posted
Posted

Some records were shattered in E SD and NW IA. Lots of low to mid 10s.

RECORD EVENT REPORT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD

823 AM CDT SUN OCT 7 2012

...RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE SET AT SIOUX CITY IA...

AT 548 AM CDT...THE TEMPERATURE AT SIOUX GATEWAY AIRPORT IN SIOUX

CITY IOWA FELL TO 15 DEGREES. THIS BROKE THE RECORD LOW FOR OCTOBER

7TH...WHICH WAS PREVIOUSLY TIED AT 23 DEGREES FROM 1974 AND 2000.

$$

Yeah most of that area had -10 or greater departures yesterday

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

We enter this Arctic outbreak as follows .......

BOS +4.7

BDL +6.1

PVD +5.2

ORH +5.7

BDR +6.0

It's part of the 30-year mystery where/why respective cool and warm patterns have tended to result mild or very warmer, despite leading synoptic appeals.

That said, we haven't entered into the cooler regime of this high amplitude pattern just yet, so we'll see how this goes. But, keeping awareness of those tendencies in mind, one must wonder if we don't just roll off 7 days of mere average before returning to some other variant of an excuse to be above normal :axe: It's just the Terran plight. The sun is getting hotter. 500,000,000 years from now winters won't occur at all, as its hydrogen fuel will be running out and it begins fusing helium - haha.

Even so (if so), we still have new (as in, NOT seen over the last 18 months!) "tendency" for the resting state to fall into a PNAP (Perennial North American Pattern) in play.

Again ... a PNAP refers to a non-wildly amplified but still noted western ridge, eastern trough. It is the longer duration pattern tendency going back a 100 years and more, per observation and re-analysis.

What all that means is, when there isn't something directly perturbing the field, the flow will have that orientation. Now, it appears this return to the longer term favored PNAP has a bit of a +PNAP flavor to it. It's why you see these extended range operational, and to some degree ensemble means depictions, showing this say, 2/3rds of the time; if a run cycle comes out opposing, dimes to donuts the next run or run after will have flipped back to the +PNAP or some variant of greater amplitude therein. As I have discussed with Will, the great airs started behaving this way, in the models, back in mid August actually - regardless of how well it's been showing up at the thermometer houses. I think it has though, as Sept, whether above normal or not, was not as demonstratively so as previous endless, ad nauseam warm months had been (although June was an outlier relative to). But that fits the "least excuse to verify warm" model. Signals abound that the background synoptics have finally flipped, only seems to mean muting the warm a little, but not going actually cold. I dunno - maybe that's GW in play. who knew

Take a look at the initialization of the 06z GFS and compare it to both the CDC and PNA nightly computations for the PNA; there is no way those two are complimentary. Their is a strong -EPO feature currently in the NE Pacific that is masking the -1.0 (est) PNA, otherwise the local time-scaled PNAP might be more

-PNAP in construct.

These different spacial teleconnector sources seems to oscillate either in harmony, or in discord with one another. Right now, the EPO and PNA seem to be oscillating in discord, where the -EPO/-PNA or +PNA/+ or neutral EPO is taking place regardless of how well those states are correlated. The PNA prog at both the CDC and CPC do not keep the PNA at -1 for long; in fact, the CPC indicates a heavily clustered (agreed upon) PNA curve that bolts abruptly upward some 1.5 SD values, beginning in about 4 days. By a 10 days from now, there could be a modest +.5 to +1SD PNA; but look at the EPO at that time? It's gone positive, not hugely so - no - but about +1 give or take. It seems these two indexes (teleconnectors) are vacillating in opposition to the longer term statistical correlation.

That correlation is positive that a +PNA/-EPO, or -PNA/+EPO, will exist some ~60%; that's an impressive absolute value of correlation for that atmosphere! It means that the current time is like transitional, for one, as eventually the 60% having more weight than the 40%, quite naturally the atmosphere will find its way back there. Unfortunately, back there can mean that dreaded -PNA/+EPO, too.

To sum up where I am going with all this, in simple terms any eastern ridge in the D5+ range is suspect

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