Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,584
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    LopezElliana
    Newest Member
    LopezElliana
    Joined

Rocktober like the old days. Bridging to winter


weathafella

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 2.1k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Yeah a couple blockbuster in the interior....but its mostly because of the famed SWFE. SNE crushes it in SWFEs in -PDO/-NAO winters. Occasionally we get lucky and do it in -PDO/+NAO winters lioke '07-'08 and '75-'76...but then we also get winters like last year and the late 90s.

I found some blizzard of '78 pics in my grandmothers photo albums. Talk about pure weenie gold lol.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Will and Jerry offically highly concerned and Scooter not nearly as excited as he was. They are dropping like flies

When was I ever excited? I think most are looking forward to winter as usual, but we've stated the caveats for a while. Just sit back and enjoy the ride....wherever it takes you. If there is one thing I've realized as I get older....it is what it is when it comes to winter. You appreciate every minute of a good one and appreciate every inch of the bad ones.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

When was I ever excited? I think most are looking forward to winter as usual, but we've stated the caveats for a while. Just sit back and enjoy the ride....wherever it takes you. If there is one thing I've realized as I get older....it is what it is when it comes to winter. You appreciate every minute of a good one and appreciate every inch of the bad ones.

When you thought we were gonna have a weak west based nino you were chucking and ducking..now that we're looking at neutral and the GOAK disaster is back...it's slipping thru our fingers

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Euro ensembles are pretty mild beyond mid month...for us, they have roughly +7C to +8C temps for days 12-15. Climo for that time of the year is about +5C.

The synoptic pattern supports the mild look as we see a return of some pretty low height anomalies in the GOA and AK itself. We are having a hard time totally eliminating the synoptic pattern that has plagued us since Spring of 2011...18 months now. We have shaken it up decently in the past 4-5 weeks, but it hasn't gotten totally snuffed out yet.

This post really says it all...we are just stuck in this pattern. Every month seems to start with a massive torch. Perhaps its just one of those stretches, like the late 90's. With nino fading, its hard to remain optimistic....with long range showing that ugly goa, will it ever just go away for good? Seems like we take 2 steps foward, 4 back....

Link to comment
Share on other sites

When you thought we were gonna have a weak west based nino you were chucking and ducking..now that we're looking at neutral and the GOAK disaster is back...it's slipping thru our fingers

Well there is a reason for that. It did look better (west based niño) two months ago, but it's not the end all. We have warm water near the dateline and if we can get forcing from that area, we'll be fine. We also are forgetting the NAO which also could try to make an appearance. The QBO is still highly negative which could help with periods of blocking. We simply don't know. There are factors that argue both ways and it's early. Just wait fr another 5-6 weeks as the atmosphere continues to adjust.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

This post really says it all...we are just stuck in this pattern. Every month seems to start with a massive torch. Perhaps its just one of those stretches, like the late 90's. With nino fading, its hard to remain optimistic....with long range showing that ugly goa, will it ever just go away for good? Seems like we take 2 steps foward, 4 back....

It happens. Boston had a stretch of 19 out of 23 months above normal in 1949-1952. Same kind of pattern too....-PDO/+AMO with a lack of a -NAO in the winter. History does tend to repeat itself every once in a while.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It happens. Boston had a stretch of 19 out of 23 months above normal in 1949-1952. Same kind of pattern too....-PDO/+AMO with a lack of a -NAO in the winter. History does tend to repeat itself every once in a while.

The ugly truth....i remember you saying when it stinks it stinks down here....during earthlights incredible stretch of winters...granted it cant get much worse then last year, but that does not mean big things this winter.....

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The ugly truth....i remember you saying when it stinks it stinks down here....during earthlights incredible stretch of winters...granted it cant get much worse then last year, but that does not mean big things this winter.....

Yes there are some things that I don't like, but give it several weeks before throwing in the towel. Maybe it doesn't work out and we look back and say October started to look like sh*t, or we look back in February and laugh at our concerns. It's just way too early.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yes there are some things that I don't like, but give it several weeks before throwing in the towel. Maybe it doesn't work out and we look back and say October started to look like sh*t, or we look back in February and laugh at our concerns. It's just way too early.

It's the roller coaster of emotions...i just dont like seeing that goa low showing up...be nice to just eliminate that lol.....looks like tomorrow will be a pretty big departure day....lows look to drop tonight before we cloud over...

Another winter of ll dancing nude at pebble beach would stink

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It's the roller coaster of emotions...i just dont like seeing that goa low showing up...be nice to just eliminate that lol.....looks like tomorrow will be a pretty big departure day....lows look to drop tonight before we cloud over...

Another winter of ll dancing nude at pebble beach would stink

I got news for you. He would be over there nude no matter what. I don't like the low either, but let's see where the pieces fall as they may.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The ugly truth....i remember you saying when it stinks it stinks down here....during earthlights incredible stretch of winters...granted it cant get much worse then last year, but that does not mean big things this winter.....

Yeah it can get ugly...it does. I think some people have amnesia when it comes to some putrid patterns in the last century. It just NOW NOW NOW all the time these days. What have you done for me lately? Patience was required previously....nowadays not so much with the data we have.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yeah it can get ugly...it does. I think some people have amnesia when it comes to some putrid patterns in the last century. It just NOW NOW NOW all the time these days. What have you done for me lately? Patience was required previously....nowadays not so much with the data we have.

God bless Weatherma and all those who were not around for the 80s and early 90s prior to dec '92. They have no idea how bad it was.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yeah it can get ugly...it does. I think some people have amnesia when it comes to some putrid patterns in the last century. It just NOW NOW NOW all the time these days. What have you done for me lately? Patience was required previously....nowadays not so much with the data we have.

Obviously i cant read ur mind....but it seems you are sold on a mild december

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Obviously i cant read ur mind....but it seems you are sold on a mild december

I am not by any stretch. In fact December could be Nina-like if this ENSO continues to get turds dropped on it by the PDO....that would favor a colder December if we have a stout aleutian ridge that is poleward enough. I actually would be more likely to favor a mild December if Nino strengthened a lot.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...