CoastalWx Posted October 6, 2012 Share Posted October 6, 2012 Squally here up north. These 5 min downpours come through and wind is gusting from the nw around 25kts. Leaves falling like crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 6, 2012 Share Posted October 6, 2012 ChrisM is getting Pete syndrome where Harwinton CT has the climate of Caribou. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 6, 2012 Share Posted October 6, 2012 We still have a southerly breeze...front not here yet...but its hitting Hubbdave just now probably....just beginning to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted October 6, 2012 Share Posted October 6, 2012 ChrisM is getting Pete syndrome where Harwinton CT has the climate of Caribou. LOL. I can take a pic! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 6, 2012 Share Posted October 6, 2012 ChrisM is getting Pete syndrome where Harwinton CT has the climate of Caribou. Pete already has snowpack established for the winter. Big winter incoming...big big winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted October 6, 2012 Share Posted October 6, 2012 We still have a southerly breeze...front not here yet...but its hitting Hubbdave just now probably....just beginning to. Just traveled Rt 31 from Spencer to Thompson, and was pretty dark to the west on top of Dresser Hill. Checked radar and wasn't looking that impressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 6, 2012 Share Posted October 6, 2012 LOL. I can take a pic! I can probably take several pics from different angles that show a lot of trees bare...it just depends on the species and if they are sitting in a swamp or if they are on a broad hillside where most of them have their leaves. I'm sure it looks like autumn there...it should since its been pretty typical of autumn weather and you are near 1,000 feet in NW CT....but I'll bet most of the trees still have most of their leaves when you look at the big picture....I'm sure there are groves that are almost bare too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted October 6, 2012 Share Posted October 6, 2012 Will biting hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 6, 2012 Share Posted October 6, 2012 Just traveled Rt 31 from Spencer to Thompson, and was pretty dark to the west on top of Dresser Hill. Checked radar and wasn't looking that impressive Spencer is a good sneaky high spot that is a bit WSW of ORH...they do well there. They are atop that ridge line that starts in Leicester and near the south side of ORH airport. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 6, 2012 Share Posted October 6, 2012 The Nino was trying to fight the PDO for a while and was making some headway....but it looks like in this David vs Goliath battle, David is actually going to win. Usually the PDO loses to ENSO....however, maybe in this case it was the PDO that was Goliath. That thing has been a total monster. I guess the one good thing is that the tropical convection is trying to hang just west of the dateline and waters are mild there. Probably doesn't mean much right now, but something to watch. The PDO is taking no prisoners right now. It's entrenched. Luckily it's early so we have time to monitor how things progress. Weeklies didn't look too bad week 4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 6, 2012 Share Posted October 6, 2012 Pete already has snowpack established for the winter. Big winter incoming...big big winter. Frozen locks of hair making it tough for outdoor work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 6, 2012 Share Posted October 6, 2012 Down to 59.1 here now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 6, 2012 Share Posted October 6, 2012 I guess the one good thing is that the tropical convection is trying to hang just west of the dateline and waters are mild there. Probably doesn't mean much right now, but something to watch. The PDO is taking no prisoners right now. It's entrenched. Luckily it's early so we have time to monitor how things progress. Weeklies didn't look too bad week 4. Yeah, at least we saw the AK vortex eradicated for a longer period recently than has been seen for almost 18 months, so there is optimism that it will finally go with just a little more help from the Tropical Pacific. The PDO keeps wanting to force the GOA low....this doesn't mean we have to see an AK/Berking straight vortex though....the PDO has completely whipped everyone (except the 2009-2010 Nino) since 2007 and we have seen a poleward enough Aleutian ridge in several winters to keep the CONUS cold....the 2007-2011 period was quite cold in the northern tier of the CONUS....but since the AK vortex took hold, its lit the match and pressed down on the spray paint can toward the U.S. for 18 months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted October 6, 2012 Share Posted October 6, 2012 Elevation plays a big role around here as far as foliage development is concerned. I was at my dad's house in Enfield this morning splitting some firewood for him and it's amazing just how green the landscape is. He lives at 146' in elevation and this is the view from his front yard with nearly all green foliage: This is a picture from part of my backyard with some bare tree's and a lawn that was free of leaves after a cleanup yesterday afternoon: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted October 6, 2012 Share Posted October 6, 2012 Plummeting down now. 54 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 6, 2012 Share Posted October 6, 2012 Yeah, at least we saw the AK vortex eradicated for a longer period recently than has been seen for almost 18 months, so there is optimism that it will finally go with just a little more help from the Tropical Pacific. The PDO keeps wanting to force the GOA low....this doesn't mean we have to see an AK/Berking straight vortex though....the PDO has completely whipped everyone (except the 2009-2010 Nino) since 2007 and we have seen a poleward enough Aleutian ridge in several winters to keep the CONUS cold....the 2007-2011 period was quite cold in the northern tier of the CONUS....but since the AK vortex took hold, its lit the match and pressed down on the spray paint can toward the U.S. for 18 months. I like that analogy lol. The Aleutian ridge idea is funny among some mets. I've heard people comment on the Aleutian ridge not the best for a cold winter, to which I was quick to point out some good success stories. Maybe in DC it's Uzi worthy, but I won't complain. I guess maybe if a +NAO is oriented in a horrible way we might do crappy, but we've done well in general. Of course nothing more than speculation at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 6, 2012 Share Posted October 6, 2012 I;m starting to sense lots of doubt and worry from some of the mets and folks..who were gung ho on a good winter. Also lots of mets are pulling plug entirely on el nino..Not good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 6, 2012 Share Posted October 6, 2012 Quick 2 minute downpour...front still a bit west though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trapperman Posted October 6, 2012 Share Posted October 6, 2012 I;m starting to sense lots of doubt and worry from some of the mets and folks..who were gung ho on a good winter. Also lots of mets are pulling plug entirely on el nino..Not good no sh-t. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 6, 2012 Author Share Posted October 6, 2012 Return of the GOAK low has me worried. Glad I held off in the forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trapperman Posted October 6, 2012 Share Posted October 6, 2012 Return of the GOAK low has me worried. Glad I held off in the forecast. http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/sweaver/cfs_fcst/images1/wk3.wk4_20121005.NAsfcT.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 6, 2012 Share Posted October 6, 2012 I like that analogy lol. The Aleutian ridge idea is funny among some mets. I've heard people comment on the Aleutian ridge not the best for a cold winter, to which I was quick to point out some good success stories. Maybe in DC it's Uzi worthy, but I won't complain. I guess maybe if a +NAO is oriented in a horrible way we might do crappy, but we've done well in general. Of course nothing more than speculation at this point. Much of the 1960s was spent with an Aleutian ridge...its fine as long as you have it poleward enough. I don't think most mets would consider the 1960s bad winters. Two items to note....look at the Bering straight and W AK....ridge. Not vortex. And obviously look at the Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 6, 2012 Share Posted October 6, 2012 I really would hold off on worrying about the AK low for another month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 6, 2012 Share Posted October 6, 2012 -PDO/-NAO is really the New England golden combo...that is why we had basically zero bad winters in the 1960s and its why we cleaned up so well in 2008-2009 and 2010-2011...its a combo that has been almost infallible here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 6, 2012 Share Posted October 6, 2012 Much of the 1960s was spent with an Aleutian ridge...its fine as long as you have it poleward enough. I don't think most mets would consider the 1960s bad winters. Two items to note....look at the Bering straight and W AK....ridge. Not vortex. And obviously look at the Atlantic. Yep exactly. I think perhaps they were thinking of more the eastern conus and from a more +pna perspective. Up our way, we at least have latitude as the ace up our sleeves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 6, 2012 Share Posted October 6, 2012 -PDO/-NAO is really the New England golden combo...that is why we had basically zero bad winters in the 1960s and its why we cleaned up so well in 2008-2009 and 2010-2011...its a combo that has been almost infallible here. I still can't believe how the 60s had no huge blockbuster winters with such a favorable patten. Just solid winters. At least for BOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted October 6, 2012 Share Posted October 6, 2012 Good-bye Summer! And good riddance. Hopefully just a handful of AN days ah...(weeks) to endure before the big plunge. I kind of like "normal" but everything is relative. Shocking that sweaters in October might be needed again! Time to shake-off the cobwebs and start watching the models with more frequency and detail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trapperman Posted October 6, 2012 Share Posted October 6, 2012 I still can't believe how the 60s had no huge blockbuster winters with such a favorable patten. Just solid winters. At least for BOS. 63 here was below zero (my father remembers and I mean below zero during the DAYTIME) for something like 20 straight days from the middle of Jan to Feb, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 6, 2012 Share Posted October 6, 2012 I still can't believe how the 60s had no huge blockbuster winters with such a favorable patten. Just solid winters. At least for BOS. Yeah a couple blockbuster in the interior....but its mostly because of the famed SWFE. SNE crushes it in SWFEs in -PDO/-NAO winters. Occasionally we get lucky and do it in -PDO/+NAO winters lioke '07-'08 and '75-'76...but then we also get winters like last year and the late 90s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 6, 2012 Share Posted October 6, 2012 I dunno guys - don't get to swept away by yesterday and today's balm. This a massive area of the seasons first real frost imposing, possible freeze air mass - not just chill based on local studies. It may not exceed 52 for a high in sun on Monday, and that low Tuesday a.m. may come across as bone chilling due to the abruptness of arrival. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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