weatherMA Posted October 6, 2012 Share Posted October 6, 2012 Wow the foliage is like 10-15 days behind down here compared to back at Plymouth...not the best weekend to be home as the foliage is great up there right now. First time home since 8/28 this weekend. 75/57 under cloudy skies here right now...feels like how it did when I left at the end of August...I think it was colder then actually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 6, 2012 Share Posted October 6, 2012 73F here for the high. Walked up the street with our wagon to the alpaca farm and bought. 40lbs of pumpkins Gorgeous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted October 6, 2012 Share Posted October 6, 2012 Dark clouds and wind have arrived... put a damper on an otherwise beautiful day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 6, 2012 Share Posted October 6, 2012 Eww, take a shower than - Lol You should go to Barre for Frisbee today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 6, 2012 Share Posted October 6, 2012 Wow the foliage is like 10-15 days behind down here compared to back at Plymouth...not the best weekend to be home as the foliage is great up there right now. First time home since 8/28 this weekend. 75/57 under cloudy skies here right now...feels like how it did when I left at the end of August...I think it was colder then actually. I was driving down around Lake quinsig yesterday and there is a pretty big difference around there compared to like Holden, MA near me. Probably a good week behind. We are starting to hit the ramp up in the hills around north and west of town and probably like 5-7 days away from the beginning of peak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 6, 2012 Share Posted October 6, 2012 Next satrday is going to be pretty damned cold....at least if the Euro is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted October 6, 2012 Share Posted October 6, 2012 I was driving down around Lake quinsig yesterday and there is a pretty big difference around there compared to like Holden, MA near me. Probably a good week behind. We are starting to hit the ramp up in the hills around north and west of town and probably like 5-7 days away from the beginning of peak. Makes sense...elevation always plays a huge factor. Plymouth is probably at peak this weekend and surrounding hills are probably at the end of their peak. We are planning to hike one of the mountains next weekend up there but it should be past peak by then. I'm sure it'll still be nice though...just past peak. Here at 470' we are probably 2 weeks away from peak still which feels late after being up at Plymouth...but that's normal for this location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 6, 2012 Share Posted October 6, 2012 Makes sense...elevation always plays a huge factor. Plymouth is probably at peak this weekend and surrounding hills are probably at the end of their peak. We are planning to hike one of the mountains next weekend up there but it should be past peak by then. I'm sure it'll still be nice though...just past peak. Here at 470' we are probably 2 weeks away from peak still which feels late after being up at Plymouth...but that's normal for this location. Yes this year we are pretty much right on time but it seems earlier because the past couple of autumns have been so mild. Peak in the hills here is usually around Oct 12-15. 2009 was the last year which we had a peak near or even slightly early. 2011 and 2010 were late. 2007 was really late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 6, 2012 Share Posted October 6, 2012 Interesting little microclimate on the lake. Doing a boat cruise currently and the islands still have a lot of green left. I know it also has to do with tree species, but its noticeable. However, the Mtn sides like the Belknap Mtns and the Ossipees are on fire. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trapperman Posted October 6, 2012 Share Posted October 6, 2012 Hey Weatherfalla. Euro at 240 looks identical to GFS at 216. And certainly no torch. GFS a day faster? Looks like an indentical pattern. Wonder if the northern tier is going to get their cold shot... 1 day "torch" for us, 1 day "torch" for you guys. Everything in between looks very fallish except for the southern plains on east. This is interesting to say the least. Yeah there's a huge goa low but the GFS takes it and dives it south around that big southwest coast high... same feature is on the Euro. Hmmmm.... makes one wonder at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 6, 2012 Share Posted October 6, 2012 Hey Weatherfalla. Euro at 240 looks identical to GFS at 216. And certainly no torch. GFS a day faster? Looks like an indentical pattern. Wonder if the northern tier is going to get their cold shot... 1 day "torch" for us, 1 day "torch" for you guys. Everything in between looks very fallish except for the southern plains on east. This is interesting to say the least. Yeah there's a huge goa low but the GFS takes it and dives it south around that big southwest coast high... same feature is on the Euro. Hmmmm.... makes one wonder at least. Euro looks toasty at 240 for the central CONUS...we are at the tail end of a cold shot on the 240h Euro in New England. Huge GOA low on the 240h Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 6, 2012 Share Posted October 6, 2012 Hopefully the models are seeing perhaps some MJO assisted ridging in the AK area. Can't really get too excited with a semi permanent trough there. Kind of early to tell. It would be nice if Niño would not crap out. Maybe the area near the dateline can help us out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trapperman Posted October 6, 2012 Share Posted October 6, 2012 Euro looks toasty at 240 for the central CONUS...we are at the tail end of a cold shot on the 240h Euro in New England. Huge GOA low on the 240h Euro. Huge goa low on the 216 GFS too and look what it does with it, dives it south around the southwest coast high and eventually the EPO block comes back and lots of cold air follows into northern tier. Just saying, interesting and a very look-alike pattern, except GFS is a day faster. no surprise there, eh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 6, 2012 Share Posted October 6, 2012 Hopefully the models are seeing perhaps some MJO assisted ridging in the AK area. Can't really get too excited with a semi permanent trough there. Kind of early to tell. It would be nice if Niño would not crap out. Maybe the area near the dateline can help us out. The Nino was trying to fight the PDO for a while and was making some headway....but it looks like in this David vs Goliath battle, David is actually going to win. Usually the PDO loses to ENSO....however, maybe in this case it was the PDO that was Goliath. That thing has been a total monster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trapperman Posted October 6, 2012 Share Posted October 6, 2012 Huge goa low on the 216 GFS too and look what it does with it, dives it south around the southwest coast high and eventually the EPO block comes back and lots of cold air follows into northern tier. Just saying, interesting and a very look-alike pattern, except GFS is a day faster. no surprise there, eh? Bah, I'm talking fantasy land. I just find it interesting that both models are pretty much showing identical features out that far and are within a day of each other... You guys are the experts and if you vote torch I am not one to argue... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 6, 2012 Share Posted October 6, 2012 Bah, I'm talking fantasy land. I just find it interesting that both models are pretty much showing identical features out that far and are within a day of each other... The problem with the statement you are replying to (your own) is that the EPO is ridiculously positive on the 240h Euro. There is a huge dumbell low configurations with one in the GOA and one north of Barrow, AK....AK is in the freezer with low heights. The configuration is a very positive AO look. Which isn't necessarily bad in October anyway. We want it to be positive in October going on stasticial probability for the liklihood of a winter -AO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 6, 2012 Share Posted October 6, 2012 I think the only discouraging thing on the Euro and its ensembles is that the big AK vortex keeps wanting to come back. Its not a huge deal at this point, but if that thing is still over staying its welcome by mid November, we might be in trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trapperman Posted October 6, 2012 Share Posted October 6, 2012 The problem with the statement you are replying to (your own) is that the EPO is ridiculously positive on the 240h Euro. There is a huge dumbell low configurations with one in the GOA and one north of Barrow, AK....AK is in the freezer with low heights. The configuration is a very positive AO look. Which isn't necessarily bad in October anyway. We want it to be positive in October going on stasticial probability for the liklihood of a winter -AO. I can't see half the stuff you're seeing with my limited resources so I will bow out. Thanks for the explanation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 6, 2012 Share Posted October 6, 2012 I can't see half the stuff you're seeing with my limited resources so I will bow out. Thanks for the explanation. Raleighwx from this site has good images in our model section Here is the 10 day Euro height anomalies....note Alaska and GOA: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trapperman Posted October 6, 2012 Share Posted October 6, 2012 Raleighwx from this site has good images in our model section Here is the 10 day Euro height anomalies....not Alaska and GOA: Doesn't look tooo bad for the northern plains... any chance that nice blue stuff off the coast with dive south towards us like the GFS shows and not just sit there pumping heat up here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted October 6, 2012 Share Posted October 6, 2012 Wow is it fall around here. Blizzard of leaf drop. Going to look like november by next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trapperman Posted October 6, 2012 Share Posted October 6, 2012 Yeah the GFS ensembles are pretty similar. Crap. I'm sick of warmth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 6, 2012 Share Posted October 6, 2012 Wow is it fall around here. Blizzard of leaf drop. Going to look like november by next weekend. Youll probably have a lot more leaves still on the trees than November next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted October 6, 2012 Share Posted October 6, 2012 Youll probably have a lot more leaves still on the trees than November next weekend. Half of the trees in my town are somewhat bare...just saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 6, 2012 Share Posted October 6, 2012 Half of the trees in my town are somewhat bare...just saying. I guess. I have a lot of bare trees around here too, but when you actually look around, most of them have most of their leaves. I'm at 950 feet at a higher latitude than you, so I guess I'm just saying perhaps you having selective observation. This year isn't really different from climo. Last two years were just slow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 6, 2012 Share Posted October 6, 2012 At any rate, look at this monster cold front....this is impressive. I didn't really notice it until now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted October 6, 2012 Share Posted October 6, 2012 I guess. I have a lot of bare trees around here too, but when you actually look around, most of them have most of their leaves. I'm at 950 feet at a higher latitude than you, so I guess I'm just saying perhaps you having selective observation. This year isn't really different from climo. Last two years were just slow. November was an exaggeration but it does look very autumnal around here. Do you think you get more snow than me? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted October 6, 2012 Share Posted October 6, 2012 Just got really windy...front is here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 6, 2012 Share Posted October 6, 2012 November was an exaggeration but it does look very autumnal around here. Do you think you get more snow than me? Yes..probably about 5" more. You do pretty well there though. Prob about 64-65" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 6, 2012 Share Posted October 6, 2012 Just got really windy...front is here. Yeah that front is just hitting you...cold incoming fast there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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