forkyfork Posted October 5, 2012 Share Posted October 5, 2012 going to be hard to snow if it's dry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 5, 2012 Share Posted October 5, 2012 though there's no consistency in any of the precip forecasts from run to run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trapperman Posted October 5, 2012 Share Posted October 5, 2012 I think if you look at the long range drought monitor map you can pretty well see where CPC thinks the main storm track is going to set up through December. SWFE for you guys? If it is what it is, sure looks like the lower midwest thru northern NE could really cash in... I hope me posting on this forum isn't pissing you guys off but there's a lot of knowledge here and I think I've learned more on this one than any other... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 5, 2012 Share Posted October 5, 2012 Yikes--looks like the pit got to 71.7 today. Awful. Guess I'll be returning to a less awful high of 66. About to join a 5k roadrace as part of my conference. What idiot thought that having a race at 6:30 would be a good idea? Plus, 35* makes it sound really enticing. Deicing for my 6:00a.m. flight tomorrow? Tonight: Cloudy. Areas of drizzle...slight chance of rain and snow showers in the evening...then a chance of snow...areas of light freezing drizzle and fog after midnight. Lows in the upper 20s. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph in the evening becoming light. Chance of precipitation 40 percent. Saturday: Snow likely in the morning...then a chance of snow showers in the afternoon. Snow accumulation up to 1 inch. Highs in the upper 30s. North winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts to around 25 mph. Chance of snow 60 percent. I guess here it hit 69.9F lol Lots of those nasty bugs though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 5, 2012 Share Posted October 5, 2012 going to be hard to snow if it's dry Without a doubt that's always my fear for a winter. Temps will get cold enough to support wintery precip even if it does rain from time to time, but you have zero shot at any snow if it doesn't precipitate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 6, 2012 Share Posted October 6, 2012 Without a doubt that's always my fear for a winter. Temps will get cold enough to support wintery precip even if it does rain from time to time, but you have zero shot at any snow if it doesn't precipitate. See 2011-2012. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted October 6, 2012 Share Posted October 6, 2012 I also wonder what those large trees are. Pretty to see them yellow. From this disance, they look like sugar maples. And the leafless ones might be white ash, always among the first to disrobe. Peak color around the house. I was in the woods (brush was very wet thru mid-aft) north of Bigelow, and they're a bit past peak with considerable leaf drop. It's also 1,100' or higher there. Aspens are in their full yellows, with some orange for bigtooth aspen. Having that tree family offers two separate leaf peaks, first for the maples and birches, second for the poplar famly. Oaks "color" about the same time as aspen, but only white oak (rare up here) and pinoak (not native here though often planted) have fall colors worth noting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 6, 2012 Share Posted October 6, 2012 Asian ladybeetles were out in large numbers this afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 6, 2012 Share Posted October 6, 2012 Ahhh the 18z NAM... if only it was 4 weeks later this would probably be a nice little event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 6, 2012 Share Posted October 6, 2012 Ahhh the 18z NAM... if only it was 4 weeks later this would probably be a nice little event. 1 for each panel.... :weenie: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 6, 2012 Share Posted October 6, 2012 1 for each panel.... :weenie: lol... yep deserved. That's a nice little event for you in the middle of the winter. Quick hitting advisory level snow. Unfortunately, this time the advisory level snow would be falling at 3-5K feet, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 6, 2012 Share Posted October 6, 2012 lol... yep deserved. That's a nice little event for you in the middle of the winter. Quick hitting advisory level snow. Unfortunately, this time the advisory level snow would be falling at 3-5K feet, lol. Yeah Scott, Move it forward 2 moths and it would be a nice 3-5" event, I would take those all day long Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 6, 2012 Share Posted October 6, 2012 From this disance, they look like sugar maples. And the leafless ones might be white ash, always among the first to disrobe. Peak color around the house. I was in the woods (brush was very wet thru mid-aft) north of Bigelow, and they're a bit past peak with considerable leaf drop. It's also 1,100' or higher there. Aspens are in their full yellows, with some orange for bigtooth aspen. Having that tree family offers two separate leaf peaks, first for the maples and birches, second for the poplar famly. Oaks "color" about the same time as aspen, but only white oak (rare up here) and pinoak (not native here though often planted) have fall colors worth noting. Yeah ash are the first to go. We had an ash and the thing was always first to get nude. Colors are really nice this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 6, 2012 Share Posted October 6, 2012 lol... yep deserved. That's a nice little event for you in the middle of the winter. Quick hitting advisory level snow. Unfortunately, this time the advisory level snow would be falling at 3-5K feet, lol. Ray drinking shots while spooning the toaster in the tub while I post 6" of paste type event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 6, 2012 Share Posted October 6, 2012 Ray drinking shots while spooning the toaster in the tub while I post 6" of paste type event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 6, 2012 Share Posted October 6, 2012 We haven't really had a Ray meltdown event like that. In October 2011, he said he was screwed 4 hours in and went out drinking at a Halloween party, lol. In Feb 2010 he was already resigned to the winter being over. But def another Dec 1996 when optimism is at high levels would be a classic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 6, 2012 Share Posted October 6, 2012 We haven't really had a Ray meltdown event like that. In October 2011, he said he was screwed 4 hours in and went out drinking at a Halloween party, lol. In Feb 2010 he was already resigned to the winter being over. But def another Dec 1996 when optimism is at high levels would be a classic. Well SSTA and QBO might say '96-'97 is in play lol. I would love a Ray meltdown. I don't know if you saw earlier last week, but I posted classic weenie posts from Kevin from 12/19/10. I had a little time so I went through the treads from December again. Kevin was really being a whiny weenie, asking why he wastes so much time on this hobby and how that winter will suck. Little did he know he'd have one of the best winters ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 6, 2012 Share Posted October 6, 2012 Well SSTA and QBO might say '96-'97 is in play lol. I would love a Ray meltdown. I don't know if you saw earlier last week, but I posted classic weenie posts from Kevin from 12/19/10. I had a little time so I went through the treads from December again. Kevin was really being a whiny weenie, asking why he wastes so much time on this hobby and how that winter will suck. Little did he know he'd have one of the best winters ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 6, 2012 Share Posted October 6, 2012 I was fine until I saw that live on TV. Then I got pissed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted October 6, 2012 Share Posted October 6, 2012 Any chance of snow in the next few weeks? this wx blows. short drive to mt kearsarge, 3k. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 6, 2012 Share Posted October 6, 2012 I was fine until I saw that live on TV. Then I got pissed. "Theres THIRTEEN inches of new snow on the ground and it is snowing at 4 inches per hour!!!" Just classic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 6, 2012 Share Posted October 6, 2012 "Theres THIRTEEN inches of new snow on the ground and it is snowing at 4 inches per hour!!!" Just classic. Those two systems both had TSSN. I was pretty happy seeing lightning in my last period class in HS from the first system. What a paste bomb that first one was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 6, 2012 Share Posted October 6, 2012 Those two systems both had TSSN. I was pretty happy seeing lightning in my last period class in HS from the first system. What a paste bomb that first one was. Yeah I remmeber the forecast for the first one was 1-4" in the "highest terrain" which meant mostly the hills around us and not a lot of ORH proper at 550-700 feet...I was kinda of disappointed. On winter hill if I was there back then, it would have meant 1-4" of snow...but I was expecting a sloppy coating to an inch. Then we got 9-10" of paste. Then the 2nd system was progged to almost come out of nowhere and they said it would be down to the wire whether ORH would be snow or not. They weren't wrong as the rain line got to 495 and then a bit beyond, but we stayed all snow. We went from 1-4" at most 12 hours before to 26" in less than 36 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 6, 2012 Share Posted October 6, 2012 Yeah I remmeber the forecast for the first one was 1-4" in the "highest terrain" which meant mostly the hills around us and not a lot of ORH proper at 550-700 feet...I was kinda of disappointed. On winter hill if I was there back then, it would have meant 1-4" of snow...but I was expecting a sloppy coating to an inch. Then we got 9-10" of paste. Then the 2nd system was progged to almost come out of nowhere and they said it would be down to the wire whether ORH would be snow or not. They weren't wrong as the rain line got to 495 and then a bit beyond, but we stayed all snow. We went from 1-4" at most 12 hours before to 26" in less than 36 hours. I feel like something like that will happen sooner rather than later. Perhaps not as intense, but it's coming. That November also had a weenie snow event to the south of the city too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 6, 2012 Share Posted October 6, 2012 That system is a great example of how muhc of a bust could happen even in 1996 versus now. It would never be 1-4" for the whole thing nowadays for people who think models are better now. But it still probably would have been a bust. Feb 2010 was a pretty big bust too...the TV forecasts going for 1-3" and then 11" of paste later. However, the NWS was much better in that and didn't get scared from the Feb 10, 2010 bust. Forecasting like that is really tough...and brings out the nerves. Especially following a bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 6, 2012 Share Posted October 6, 2012 I seriously cannot wait for winter. Ray will be posting again. The band will be back in full force. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 6, 2012 Share Posted October 6, 2012 That system is a great example of how muhc of a bust could happen even in 1996 versus now. It would never be 1-4" for the whole thing nowadays for people who think models are better now. But it still probably would have been a bust. Feb 2010 was a pretty big bust too...the TV forecasts going for 1-3" and then 11" of paste later. However, the NWS was much better in that and didn't get scared from the Feb 10, 2010 bust. Forecasting like that is really tough...and brings out the nerves. Especially following a bust. Euro FTW on that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 6, 2012 Share Posted October 6, 2012 I feel like something like that will happen sooner rather than later. Perhaps not as intense, but it's coming. That November also had a weenie snow event to the south of the city too. Nov 1996 was pretty cold...esp late...we had a powdery 1.5" the day before Thanksgiving and it made it a white Thanksgiving. The high on Thanksgiving was 24F. Nov 1996 finished -3.5 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 6, 2012 Share Posted October 6, 2012 Speaking of meltdowns, I secretly had one last year on that 2/29 storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 6, 2012 Share Posted October 6, 2012 Euro FTW on that one. Yeah except the changeover in mid-morning. Euro said we'd stay all snow...but overall it def won. The NAM was an epic disaster in that one. I remember you and I were talking about the weenie Euro maps with the 900mb temps showing 0C just south of ORH and -1C over like Princeton in that...total red flag for a paste bomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.