isohume Posted October 3, 2012 Share Posted October 3, 2012 Yeah the NWS has done a great job with moving to more impact based statements. I still don't think showing an actual winter storm watch/winter storm warning/winter weather advisory does a whole lot of good. I'd rather spend that time going through the impacts than showing a map of who is under what advisory. Oh, I thought you said they didn't do a good job of answering those questions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted October 3, 2012 Share Posted October 3, 2012 I should have been more clear. I think in general the winter weather advisories don't really communicate a threat well. Severe thunderstorm warnings, tornado warnings, or flash flood warnings, on the other hand do a better job (but still not great). I do think, and this has been litigated many times over and over, that in general even with a short fused convective event we need to do a better job separating truly unusually severe events (say the DC derecho) from a run of the mill SVR that produces isolated damage. I think the NWS has done a great job recently heading to more impact based stuff and I hope that continues. All the NWS offices around here have also done a really nice job with improved coordination thanks to things like NWS Chat. It's been an impressive change for the better in recent years IMO. I don't see a huge benefit for winter weather advisories, winter storm watches, etc. I think they don't do a great job answering the questions... how much/when/what will the impact be. The new bullet format to the long fused headline products like the WSW's should help with this, but this also depends on the forecaster typing up the product. This can also be applied to short fused products like the SVR, where the forecaster should add in text conveying the threat if there is something that needs more attention. It also comes back to partnership as I am still amazed during active weather we are hearing little but then turn on the evening news and there is footage being shown of numerous trees knocked over and other damage. It would be nice if the appropriate NWS office gets this info especially in real time. Thus, the communication part still needs to be improved in my opinion and this naming of the winter storms by a private weather company may just add more confusion. We shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted October 3, 2012 Share Posted October 3, 2012 I'm sure people on here have read the Northeast Snowstorms books by Paul Kocin and Uccellini. Well this setup would be perfect for the NWS to take over in the future. Who wouldn't love to have documented tracks off all storms ranging from clipper systems to Nor'easters??? That way there could be a referanced climatologically favored areas after reviewing all paths taken by developing winter storms and their origins just like how we analyse tropical systems via the analog system. Having case studies done on all winter storms would be pretty darn epic, especially if some other ranking system is developed other than the NEISS!! I'm stoked at the possibilities for winter weenies everywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted October 3, 2012 Share Posted October 3, 2012 Not to bust anyone's balls... but I think its important to note: I do work for the NWS (though am commenting as myself, and am in no way speaking for the NWS etc), and CT Rain works for TWC's parent company, NBC. And everyone in the NE forum knows the value that CT Rain adds to analysis of every single event, even if they don't like his more conservative take. The "two sides" in this debate clearly show their biases, as well as their self-righteousness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 3, 2012 Share Posted October 3, 2012 The good thing someone like you can do, is at least give your thoughts on a watch or warning. For instance we know that even though your SE viewing area is under a some sort of severe watch....you feel confident they don't have to worry, so you therefore add value to the forecast. You have enough knowledge not to concern viewers in that part of the watch. Yup and that's what we do. I have to say I'm impressed by the changes I've seen in the NWS over the last few years with their push toward impact based products and communication with the media. It's better than ever before IMO. I think the days of spending :20 or :25 seconds on a map showing who is under what watch or what warning (NOT for severe weather) should be over. We can do a much better job detailing specific information and impact. This sort of ties into the whole discussion on storm naming. As long as you're providing accurate and specific information to the end consumer the whole naming issue shouldn't be much of an issue. Someone doesn't care if they're under a winter storm warning or a winter weather advisory... they just want to know what to expect when driving to work. Same thing with a storm's name.... they probably don't care if it has a name or if it doesn't... they just want to know how a storm will impact them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isohume Posted October 3, 2012 Share Posted October 3, 2012 The new bullet format to the long fused headline products like the WSW's should help with this, but this also depends on the forecaster typing up the product. This can also be applied to short fused products like the SVR, where the forecaster should add in text conveying the threat if there is something that needs more attention. It also comes back to partnership as I am still amazed during active weather we are hearing little but then turn on the evening news and there is footage being shown of numerous trees knocked over and other damage. It would be nice if the appropriate NWS office gets this info especially in real time. Thus, the communication part still needs to be improved in my opinion and this naming of the winter storms by a private weather company may just add more confusion. We shall see. We should be able to electronically access the county call centers logs. Doing a county canvas for snow reports or inquiring about svr weather is a huge waste of time not to mention the utter mind-ache dealing with someone who wont give info or doesn't know how to access the info. We don't often get damage info from the media, it's normally them chatting us up or calling wanting to know what we've got. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Supercane Posted October 3, 2012 Share Posted October 3, 2012 I don't see the problem in trying this out. It's worked in Europe for over 50 years, why not here? Who knows, if it catches on maybe the HPC/NWS will adopt an official naming convention. That said, I am curious to see what the actual criteria will be for naming storms. Will this just be for low pressures? Or any potentially big winter event? I won't be bothered by occasional inconsistencies at first -- heck, the NHC still isn't 100% consistent in naming TCs -- but I do hope they at least take the process seriously. Someone mentioned earlier basing the criteria on how anomalous the storm is (or is forecast to be) relative to the region. So a 4" snowstorm in North Dakota wouldn't be named, but a 4" snowstorm in Florida would. I could live with that. It sounds like TWC will consider population too -- I have mixed feelings about that, but I guess it makes some sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 3, 2012 Share Posted October 3, 2012 Yup and that's what we do. I have to say I'm impressed by the changes I've seen in the NWS over the last few years with their push toward impact based products and communication with the media. It's better than ever before IMO. I think the days of spending :20 or :25 seconds on a map showing who is under what watch or what warning (NOT for severe weather) should be over. We can do a much better job detailing specific information and impact. This sort of ties into the whole discussion on storm naming. As long as you're providing accurate and specific information to the end consumer the whole naming issue shouldn't be much of an issue. Someone doesn't care if they're under a winter storm warning or a winter weather advisory... they just want to know what to expect when driving to work. Same thing with a storm's name.... they probably don't care if it has a name or if it doesn't... they just want to know how a storm will impact them. I knew what you meant in your post on the previous page about the NWS watches and warnings. Not that you ignore it, but you understand the local climo in your area and add value in some shape or form. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 3, 2012 Share Posted October 3, 2012 The new bullet format to the long fused headline products like the WSW's should help with this, but this also depends on the forecaster typing up the product. This can also be applied to short fused products like the SVR, where the forecaster should add in text conveying the threat if there is something that needs more attention. It also comes back to partnership as I am still amazed during active weather we are hearing little but then turn on the evening news and there is footage being shown of numerous trees knocked over and other damage. It would be nice if the appropriate NWS office gets this info especially in real time. Thus, the communication part still needs to be improved in my opinion and this naming of the winter storms by a private weather company may just add more confusion. We shall see. Yup... I should have been more clear in my initial comments. I like a lot of what I'm seeing from the NWS... so we're getting there with better communication. Of course it could be better but it comes with time and it's a 2 way street. I hope we don't see more confusion... but I think at the end of the day getting specific and impact based information to the end user is the most important thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted October 3, 2012 Share Posted October 3, 2012 And everyone in the NE forum knows the value that CT Rain adds to analysis of every single event, even if they don't like his more conservative take. The "two sides" in this debate clearly show their biases, as well as their self-righteousness. Note I never said anything about CT's analysis value. Just pointing out our biases (since I'm not sure everyone in this thread knows what they are). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted October 3, 2012 Share Posted October 3, 2012 I have to say I'm impressed by the changes I've seen in the NWS over the last few years with their push toward impact based products and communication with the media. It's better than ever before IMO. Excellent. I think the days of spending :20 or :25 seconds on a map showing who is under what watch or what warning (NOT for severe weather) should be over. We can do a much better job detailing specific information and impact. This sort of ties into the whole discussion on storm naming. As long as you're providing accurate and specific information to the end consumer the whole naming issue shouldn't be much of an issue. Someone doesn't care if they're under a winter storm warning or a winter weather advisory... they just want to know what to expect when driving to work. Same thing with a storm's name.... they probably don't care if it has a name or if it doesn't... they just want to know how a storm will impact them. Why issue watches and warnings then? Why name winter storms? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 3, 2012 Share Posted October 3, 2012 I knew what you meant in your post on the previous page about the NWS watches and warnings. Not that you ignore it, but you understand the local climo in your area and add value in some shape or form. And severe thunderstorm warnings/tornado warnings are different. I was thinking more about other NWS warnings/advisories that don't necessarily mean much to the end user. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted October 3, 2012 Share Posted October 3, 2012 Note I never said anything about CT's analysis value. Just pointing out our biases (since I'm not sure everyone in this thread knows what they are). I don't disagree. Probably, though, Ryan's biases come much more from him being a TV weatherman (the face of communicating about weather) than from him having anything to do with NBC. That statement seemed like a big stretch to me... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted October 3, 2012 Share Posted October 3, 2012 We should be able to electronically access the county call centers logs. Doing a county canvas for snow reports or inquiring about svr weather is a huge waste of time not to mention the utter mind-ache dealing with someone who wont give info or doesn't know how to access the info. We don't often get damage info from the media, it's normally them chatting us up or calling wanting to know what we've got. My office can do this now for some eastern PA counties, but sometimes the logs are not updated in real time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 3, 2012 Share Posted October 3, 2012 Excellent. Why issue watches and warnings then? Why name winter storms? Good questions on both. I don't think the average end user knows what a winter storm warning means or if they would prepare any differently if one was in effect. Certainly different from a hurricane warning or a severe thunderstorm warning. I would rather you guys be able to spend more time coordinating with local media, emergency management, governments and issuing more impact based information and forecasts. But that's just me... I'm only one user or many for your products so it's certainly possible that they are of use other places. To be honest part of the issue here in my market is that we're covered by 3 different offices so it can be a mess if one office issues warnings or advisories prior to another office etc. Names aren't going to convey any information to a viewer better than the status quo lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted October 3, 2012 Share Posted October 3, 2012 And severe thunderstorm warnings/tornado warnings are different. I was thinking more about other NWS warnings/advisories that don't necessarily mean much to the end user. How do you know this? Perhaps to the general public, however to others such as DOT's and EM's they mean something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isohume Posted October 3, 2012 Share Posted October 3, 2012 My office can do this now for some eastern PA counties, but sometimes the logs are not updated in real time. Man that'd be nice...even if the info is somewhat dated. Not to derail this awesome thread much more, but is that something your WCM set up? We can access our state's sheriff collectives, but these are usually vague as to the number of trees down, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 3, 2012 Share Posted October 3, 2012 How do you know this? Perhaps to the general public, however to others such as DOT's and EM's they mean something. I just posted about this in my next reply. Yeah I'm just speaking about the public and myself. There certainly may be other users where they are of some value or even of great value. I'm not sure how much time/effort goes into things like this and if that time can be better spent. Just throwing out an idea... I don't know the answer... just a question. At least for me I don't pay a whole lot of attention to those kinds of statements but others may. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted October 3, 2012 Share Posted October 3, 2012 Man that'd be nice...even if the info is somewhat dated. Not to derail this awesome thread much more, but is that something your WCM set up? We can access our state's sheriff collectives, but these are usually vague as to the number of trees down, etc. Yeah, it was our WCM and I believe another forecaster that got it rolling. We tried with another state we cover but so far that has not gone anywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted October 3, 2012 Share Posted October 3, 2012 Good questions on both. I don't think the average end user knows what a winter storm warning means or if they would prepare any differently if one was in effect. Certainly different from a hurricane warning or a severe thunderstorm warning. I would rather you guys be able to spend more time coordinating with local media, emergency management, governments and issuing more impact based information and forecasts. But that's just me... I'm only one user or many for your products so it's certainly possible that they are of use other places. To be honest part of the issue here in my market is that we're covered by 3 different offices so it can be a mess if one office issues warnings or advisories prior to another office etc. Names aren't going to convey any information to a viewer better than the status quo lol. Wouldnt it make more sense to educate the general public on the differences instead of just brushing it aside? Sadly I agree that a large percentage of the General Public has no idea what the difference is between a Watch and a warning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isohume Posted October 3, 2012 Share Posted October 3, 2012 Yeah, it was our WCM and I believe another forecaster that got it rolling. We tried with another state we cover but so far that has not gone anywhere. Cool, so it is doable. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 3, 2012 Share Posted October 3, 2012 Wouldnt it make more sense to educate the general public on the differences instead of just brushing it aside? Sadly I agree that a large percentage of the General Public has no idea what the difference is between a Watch and a warning Ideally, yes. I think in general with the time constraints we have I'd rather just focus on impact/timing/amounts. At the end of the day I think that's what matters most to the average viewer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted October 3, 2012 Share Posted October 3, 2012 I just posted about this in my next reply. Yeah I'm just speaking about the public and myself. There certainly may be other users where they are of some value or even of great value. I'm not sure how much time/effort goes into things like this and if that time can be better spent. Just throwing out an idea... I don't know the answer... just a question. At least for me I don't pay a whole lot of attention to those kinds of statements but others may. I saw your previous post, and I was basically reading earlier that you were speaking in a larger context and not just about the public and yourself. I am following you better now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted October 3, 2012 Share Posted October 3, 2012 I don't think the average end user knows what a winter storm warning means or if they would prepare any differently if one was in effect. Certainly different from a hurricane warning or a severe thunderstorm warning. I presume you are talking about the difference between a winter storm warning and a winter weather advisory. If you are talking about the difference between what they do when they see a winter storm warning as opposed to when they see nothing in effect.. I beg to differ. I think there is a marked difference in reaction/planning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 3, 2012 Share Posted October 3, 2012 I saw your previous post, and I was basically reading earlier that you were speaking in a larger context and not just about the public and yourself. I am following you better now. haha yeah... I probably should type more before I hit send! I'm interested to see how all of this plays out. If Accuweather did it I'm guessing it wouldn't really catch on... but I'm curious to see if TWC can actually get something that does catch on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted October 3, 2012 Share Posted October 3, 2012 Just a general observation about this weatherboard, and how it relates to this debate: How much 'respect' is afforded to the NWS local offices varies quite a bit from sub-forum to sub-forum. I personally think the biggest variable is how much NWS meteorologists post in a given subforum. Posters all see the red tags, and automatically give some level of deference to anyone posting under that tag (unless it's one of the infamous subpar ones). In many sub-forums, NWS forecasts are generally seen as the starting point, with all the other red-taggers-- not affiliated with the NWS-- filling in the blanks, augmenting, improving upon, the NWS forecasts. In our subforum, there's definitely a "roll-your-eyes" approach to most NWS forecasts and discussions, *especially* for winter storms. Obviously for us, we would weigh Wes' thoughts quite a bit more than whatever the LWX forecast discussion describes whenever there is a disagreement. In the sub-forums where NWS met's are active, it's a very different dynamic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted October 3, 2012 Share Posted October 3, 2012 Ideally, yes. I think in general with the time constraints we have I'd rather just focus on impact/timing/amounts. At the end of the day I think that's what matters most to the average viewer. Im not in the TV biz at all, but do they allow you more time when a storm of serious possibilities is on the horizon to explain the differences in easy terms that the G.P. would understand? I can see your point on a large majority just wants to know the timing and how much type of answers but maybe explaining the differences may make it easier for them to understand? I dont know, just thinking out loud here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 3, 2012 Share Posted October 3, 2012 I presume you are talking about the difference between a winter storm warning and a winter weather advisory. If you are talking about the difference between what they do when they see a winter storm warning as opposed to when they see nothing in effect.. I beg to differ. I think there is a marked difference in reaction/planning. Yes between warning/advisory. I'm not even sure most meteorologists out of the NWS could tell you the official difference between a WS warning and a Winter wx advisory. I still think a map of accumulation and specific information as to timing would do much more to impact reaction/planning than knowing there is a watch in effect. That was really my point here. Same thing with a storm name... Storm Cesar is approaching.... soooooo will it snow for my morning commute? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 3, 2012 Share Posted October 3, 2012 Im not in the TV biz at all, but do they allow you more time when a storm of serious possibilities is on the horizon to explain the differences in easy terms that the G.P. would understand? I can see your point on a large majority just wants to know the timing and how much type of answers but maybe explaining the differences may make it easier for them to understand? I dont know, just thinking out loud here. Oh yeah... certainly more time. So yeah we do have it. One issue we run into is that we are covered by 3 NWS offices in a small state that can lead to some very confusing looking maps. I don't always agree with their forecasts either so that would make it another issue once in a while. Sorry we sort of went OT here... I wasn't necessarily clear in the beginning so wanted to clarify my comments. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted October 3, 2012 Share Posted October 3, 2012 Jealousy runs high in here. How anyone can find a negative in this doesn't like being a weather weenie. This is great for weather fans. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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