TWC going to name winter storms this winter

[snowman21]

Yes between warning/advisory. I'm not even sure most meteorologists out of the NWS could tell you the official difference between a WS warning and a Winter wx advisory. I still think a map of accumulation and specific information as to timing would do much more to impact reaction/planning than knowing there is a watch in effect. That was really my point here. Same thing with a storm name... Storm Cesar is approaching.... soooooo will it snow for my morning commute?

I'm sure it's not unique to Connecticut, but how many times do you show that watch/warning map in the winter and there's a hole because OKX, BOX, or ALY haven't gotten around to issuing their warnings? You could waste 2:30 just trying to explain all the technicalities. The average viewer couldn't care less that even though there are only eight counties in the state that there are three different WFOs serving them, and not all of them have the same snowfall warning criteria.

[CT Rain]

I'm sure it's not unique to Connecticut, but how many times do you show that watch/warning map in the winter and there's a hole because OKX, BOX, or ALY haven't gotten around to issuing their warnings? You could waste 2:30 just trying to explain all the technicalities. The average viewer couldn't care less that even though there are only eight counties in the state that there are three different WFOs serving them, and not all of them have the same snowfall warning criteria.

Yup... I'm sure it's not unique to us. We probably would be more apt to use a watch/warning map in the winter if we didn't have problems like this pop up quite a bit. It's not just winter either... fog advisories, high wind etc.

[hurricaneschwartz]

I think we could learn a lot about TWC's intentions by asking them this: "How many storm names would you expect to have in a winter?"

If the answer is about 5 or less, I'm OK with it. If they expect to use the whole list each year, it's trouble.

Glenn

[The_Global_Warmer]

Anyway, I'll add that we're not talking about some silly frivolous sports franchise that essentially means nothing. We're talking about storms that cripple regional transportation and totally disrupt the work and school schedules for millions. Not to mention those who end up in accidents etc because of the storm. And those few who might actually die from it. No, the popularity of winter storms is unlikely to increase. Those who like them will still like them, those who hate them will hate them. Winter Storm coverage has always been highly rated, I don't think this will make a big dent. As others have said, this mainly serves to drive extra attention to TWC now, before the season has even started.

Winter storms are hard to classify. Some crippling events aren't even "storms", but just stretched out stationary fronts.

But hey, if they want to try this out, all power to them. Good luck sustaining it.

While I do agree with your assessment for the most part, yes sports are silly and frivolous compared to weather that kills.

But Baseball and Weather are by definition things.

TWC and The NY Yankees are both private enterprises.

The fact is, Hurricanes are big business, NOAA's hits go up by the billions over them. Winter Storms do not cause the same reaction, I think Naming is a big reason. I believe and I bet a marketing director would agree that the NAMES MAKE THEM IMMENSELY MORE POPULAR.

Super-storm 1993 killed 310 people

Hurricane Hugo killed 61 people

Hurricane Andrew killed 65 people

February 5–6, 2010 North American blizzard killed over 50 people in multiple countries

1995 heat wave killed 510 people or more?

I could list so many tragedy's, reality is for the USA, Katrina's are the extreme rare these day and winter storms, floods, heat waves, cold snaps, well cold snaps before AGW....jk, anyways many other weather killers are as bad or much worse in many cases but Hurricanes because of NAMES are by far the most popular and interesting weather stories.

Winter storms would see an immediate jump in popularity and in the frivolous capitalism world we live in, $$$$$$$$$$ would increase. Which could lead to funding for more technology.

But TWC and Accuweather are about making money first. Silly Sports in many many different ways save lives to. It's impossible to distinguish all of that.

We will see how this plays out but if it works and it brings more attention to the dangers and deadliness of these storms I bet you causalities and injury's drop noticeably and in the end that is a good thing.

No offense, there is a loyal smart base out there who understands how hard forecasting natural weather disasters is and gets we blow it. And I say we because pro and hobbyist all forecast for someone or another my friends and family come to me for the "inside" scoop, many times in my youth my friends would choose to stay in over a night of boozing in a snow storm but would have ignored the weather and for good reason.

HYPE

yes I sound like a hypocritical paradox but I think the extra hype from the names will help in this case.

Plus it will be fun to go on tv for some mets and say:

Khan will use his thrusters turning left over NW Louisiana, before slowly going to impulse and heading towards the Chattanooga region, photon snow bands will reign down the Northern Arkansas region to Columbus Ohio while quantum sleet torpedoes pelt Nashville because of heat exhausted from the anti matter/matter explosions, you know those give off lots of energy, good think Kahn can pull in cool Plasma air from the upper levels and the plains punching cold dry into the system before he can do to much damage. By tomorrow Khan will cloak(he stole it from the Klingons after freezing them out over the Rockies) and magically reappear off the North Carolina coast before engaging his impulse drive again and finally going to Warp near Delaware headed for the North Atlantic.

You're right there is no guarantee it will catch on and be sustained.

[The_Global_Warmer]

Jealousy runs high in here. How anyone can find a negative in this doesn't like being a weather weenie. This is great for weather fans.

I am in agreement.

If the HPC said they were going to do this and only gave us the same prelim info TWC has so far, it wouldn't get near the wrap it's gotten, but the implied financial motive is probably the sticking point.

I personally would rather the HPC name them and I would let the public choose the names in a weekly contest from May to October each year for each letter of the alphabet.

Let the public choose from say 20 names and also submit and other and let them vote say 5 or 10 times per IP?

[weatherwiz]

It will be really interesting to not only see the response this will have by the public but what will be the criteria for TWC to warrant the issuance of a name. I think in a way naming winter storms will probably further enhance the alertness of the public and hopefully take the precautions to better prepare themselves, especially in the cases of a major winter storm that will have a very large and widespread societal impact. While you always want the public to be as best prepared as possible you hope this doesn't sort of backfire. With tropical systems you always see people take extreme measures and precautions...now a large part of this is b/c of the damage and destruction they cause over such a widespread area but you part of the reason is also b/c the system has a name. I'll use New England as an example, only b/c I'm familiar with this area. While obviously we don't get threatened by tropical storms/hurricanes very frequently when some media outlets start talking about the possibility of a hurricane coming up the coast alot of folks around here sort of "freak out". Often times we'll end up seeing nor'easters which are actually stronger than tropical systems around here and have just as much, if not more of a social impact yet people don't act as so or realize it.

Anyways what I guess what I'm trying to get at is hopefully they are only going to be issuing names on special situations b/c issuing names on seemingly most winter weather producing events could end up causing more harm than good.

[PottercountyWXobserver]

While I do agree with your assessment for the most part, yes sports are silly and frivolous compared to weather that kills.

But Baseball and Weather are by definition things.

TWC and The NY Yankees are both private enterprises.

The fact is, Hurricanes are big business, NOAA's hits go up by the billions over them. Winter Storms do not cause the same reaction, I think Naming is a big reason. I believe and I bet a marketing director would agree that the NAMES MAKE THEM IMMENSELY MORE POPULAR.

Super-storm 1993 killed 310 people

Hurricane Hugo killed 61 people

Hurricane Andrew killed 65 people

February 5–6, 2010 North American blizzard killed over 50 people in multiple countries

1995 heat wave killed 510 people or more?

I could list so many tragedy's, reality is for the USA, Katrina's are the extreme rare these day and winter storms, floods, heat waves, cold snaps, well cold snaps before AGW....jk, anyways many other weather killers are as bad or much worse in many cases but Hurricanes because of NAMES are by far the most popular and interesting weather stories.

Winter storms would see an immediate jump in popularity and in the frivolous capitalism world we live in, $$$$$$$$$$ would increase. Which could lead to funding for more technology.

But TWC and Accuweather are about making money first. Silly Sports in many many different ways save lives to. It's impossible to distinguish all of that.

We will see how this plays out but if it works and it brings more attention to the dangers and deadliness of these storms I bet you causalities and injury's drop noticeably and in the end that is a good thing.

No offense, there is a loyal smart base out there who understands how hard forecasting natural weather disasters is and gets we blow it. And I say we because pro and hobbyist all forecast for someone or another my friends and family come to me for the "inside" scoop, many times in my youth my friends would choose to stay in over a night of boozing in a snow storm but would have ignored the weather and for good reason.

HYPE

yes I sound like a hypocritical paradox but I think the extra hype from the names will help in this case.

Plus it will be fun to go on tv for some mets and say:

Khan will use his thrusters turning left over NW Louisiana, before slowly going to impulse and heading towards the Chattanooga region, photon snow bands will reign down the Northern Arkansas region to Columbus Ohio while quantum sleet torpedoes pelt Nashville because of heat exhausted from the anti matter/matter explosions, you know those give off lots of energy, good think Kahn can pull in cool Plasma air from the upper levels and the plains punching cold dry into the system before he can do to much damage. By tomorrow Khan will cloak(he stole it from the Klingons after freezing them out over the Rockies) and magically reappear off the North Carolina coast before engaging his impulse drive again and finally going to Warp near Delaware headed for the North Atlantic.

You're right there is no guarantee it will catch on and be sustained.

Attention is good publicity for the weather industry. Naming storms only helps the fans of weather. Not only will this help raise money for possible future weather technological advancements, it will bring much much more added airtime for the winter weather which is a major plus. Like I said categorization will help improve the climatologically favored areas in identical setups because tracking maps for winter storms will be readily available to compare now that storms are regularly tracked and identified.

[isohume]

Attention is good publicity for the weather industry. Naming storms only helps the fans of weather. Not only will this help raise money for possible future weather technological advancements, it will bring much much more added airtime for the winter weather which is a major plus.

So you think TWC is going to take any profits they make from this and fund technological wx advancements?

Like I said categorization will help improve the climatologically favored areas in identical setups because tracking maps for winter storms will be readily available to compare now that storms are regularly tracked and identified.

http://www.eas.slu.e...COLD/analog.php

[PottercountyWXobserver]

I am in agreement.

If the HPC said they were going to do this and only gave us the same prelim info TWC has so far, it wouldn't get near the wrap it's gotten, but the implied financial motive is probably the sticking point.

I personally would rather the HPC name them and I would let the public choose the names in a weekly contest from May to October each year for each letter of the alphabet.

Let the public choose from say 20 names and also submit and other and let them vote say 5 or 10 times per IP?

I totally agree that HPC should be in charge, but this is a step in the right direction. I eventually think HPC will take over duties in the future. People love seeing all the climatological maps of all tropical systems that have formed. Imagine having all winter storms that have formed tracks at your disposal!! Alot of potential for the winter weenies is there.

[Supercane]

Also, I'll admit to a bias I haven't seen mentioned in this thread yet: I like to personify things. I feel like a dweeb saying this on a science forum, but knowing the names of hurricanes helped get me interested in tracking them in the first place, when I was a kid. It gave them their own personalities to me, and that was appealing (hey, I was 9 ).

A lot of kids are like that. Maybe I'm weird as an adult having never completely shed that tendency of looking at things. But I strongly suspect I'm not. For example, planets are clearly personified by their names. Look at the love for, ahem, dwarf planet Pluto -- arguably the main reason many people cared about its status is because they associate it with a cute Disney dog. And of course there are hurricanes. Don't tell me the public doesn't get some enjoyment personifying these beasts -- everyone has too much fun with names like Igor. The upside to all this is the general public becomes more interested -- through sentimentality, name association, whatever -- and then it is easier to reach out and educate on the actual science.

So naturally this idea resonates for me, at least on blueprint. I think it has potential to make tracking winter storms more interesting for the general public -- which can't be a bad thing, *as long as* TWC doesn't make it too gimmicky and actually adheres to some sort of sensible and consistent convention.

[The_Global_Warmer]

True. When was the last time you heard a media met say "The National Weather Service has issued...blah blah". All the stations here say "We now have a severe thunderstorm warning in effect for...blah blah". Sneaky!

In St. Louis every media outlet, radio, tv, tv mets say the National Weather Service has issued for the most part. Unless it's more or less done in by a radio host who is a DJ just passing it along uniformly.

But I can't recall the tv mets ever doing that, they get those fax's, hell they show it on air Kent on Channel 4 rolls up his sleeves and takes that fax and stand in front of the camera and actually explains that it's from the National Weather Service. Chris Higgins of Channel 2 says the St. Louis office and the media currently has an outstanding relationship I don't know if it's like that everywhere. Weather here is probably unnaturally more popular because of the extreme ranges of it.

It may not be that way

Then again Severe Storms here in this highly populated flat region are frequent and are most serious business aside from floods and heat.

Off topic but I think watches should be issued by the severe weather headquarters and warnings by the local office. In a perfect world every local office would employ a severe weather specialist year round. Even if offices have different criteria warnings can say cross county up to 50 percent of the warning box but if the next warning to come out is solely in the next office district then they choose.

[isohume]

Off topic but I think watches should be issued by the severe weather headquarters and warnings by the local office.

They are.

[The_Global_Warmer]

So you think TWC is going to take any profits they make from this and fund technological wx advancements?

It takes money to make money.

And they will probably reinvest some of it into sensible technologies like programming, graphics, maybe even algorithms for data crunching any improvement that we can all use as a tool is a +.

But no they are very unlikely to buy super computers to run a new weather model they designed or send up new private to them but public use satellites like GOES, MODIS, and the Passive Microwave/Radar Altimeters.

[The_Global_Warmer]

They are.

Oh NM, thanks.

[PottercountyWXobserver]

So you think TWC is going to take any profits they make from this and fund technological wx advancements?

http://www.eas.slu.e...COLD/analog.php

Thanks for that link! bookmarked for sure. I just think it would be neat to plot on a map the snow storms coordinates like I do for all the tropical systems I track. Especially if someone saved a map of all the snow storm systems that formed and the intensity graphics like we see with tropical systems. A complete graphic illustration of storm paths will be a great thing for winter enthusiast. That makes it easier to show to the public why certain systems are supressed and others cut west of the apps. Then once the subjective criteria is narrowed down, then we can compare winter seasons like we do with tropical seasons, it could be alot of fun.

[Ian]

I think we could learn a lot about TWC's intentions by asking them this: "How many storm names would you expect to have in a winter?"

If the answer is about 5 or less, I'm OK with it. If they expect to use the whole list each year, it's trouble.

Glenn

I'm not sure I agree with that. The cherry picking could be problematic. But then you run into questions of what types of events qualify etc. But going back to the poor hurricane analogy ... Even crap storms (or mostly crap storms) get names. Obviously a problem here if covering the whole US is it seems fairy easy to run thru the list.

But based on Masters' post they will focus on only 'big' storms so it doesn't seem they plan on getting far through the list.

I'd almost rather see it be some sort of numbered scale. That would have some regional qualifications I suppose.

[PottercountyWXobserver]

I'm not sure I agree with that. The cherry picking could be problematic. But then you run into questions of what types of events qualify etc. But going back to the poor hurricane analogy ... Even crap storms (or mostly crap storms) get names. Obviously a problem here if covering the whole US is it seems fairy easy to run thru the list.

But based on Masters' post they will focus on only 'big' storms so it doesn't seem they plan on getting far through the list.

I'd almost rather see it be some sort of numbered scale. That would have some regional qualifications I suppose.

Why can't they do both. I think they should do what the NHC does. Name all systems via a depressions. Just assign storms a categorized number based on its severity, and once a certain threshold is crossed, that is when they get assigned a name. I think they should track everything. Assign a clipper like a 1 or a 2 based on strength, i think accuweather does this to some extent. Then say have a scale like 1-10 and if a storm reaches say a 5, that is when they start getting named?? Just upgrade the storm with a number if it weakens or strengthens. Say it goes from a 5 to a 3, then the storm loses its name like a TS does.

Come up with a list of factors that would influence the rankings?

1. How abnormal to a region is this storm

2. Snowfall total

3. QPF total

4. Precipitation Rate

5. Wind intensity

6. Temperature

7. Duration

8. Area Impacted

9. Population Density

10. Occurance timeframe ie traffic, holliday travel, etc

11. Pressure intensity/ rate (Rapid intensification example)

12. STD event

13. Post Analysis

14. Storms complete lifecycle

15. ETC, pretty much whatever you can comeup with that is relevant.

[Supercane]

Why can't they do both. I think they should do what the NHC does. Name all systems via a depressions. Just assign storms a categorized number based on its severity, and once a certain threshold is crossed, that is when they get assigned a name. I think they should track everything. Assign a clipper like a 1 or a 2 based on strength, i think accuweather does this to some extent. Then say have a scale like 1-10 and if a storm reaches say a 5, that is when they start getting named?? Just upgrade the storm with a number if it weakens or strengthens. Say it goes from a 5 to a 3, then the storm loses its name like a TS does.

TSs actually don't ever lose their names. If TS Nadine gets downgraded to a tropical depression, it's still Nadine.

I don't see the need to assign labels to every kink in the jet stream. It'd be like classifying every tropical wave -- not really necessary. That said, I agree there should be a universal, consistent threshold for named status (even if it's relative to the region and/or population impact).

[PottercountyWXobserver]

TSs actually don't ever lose their names. If TS Nadine gets downgraded to a tropical depression, it's still Nadine.

I don't see the need to assign labels to every kink in the jet stream. It'd be like classifying every tropical wave -- not really necessary. That said, I agree there should be a universal, consistent threshold for named status (even if it's relative to the region and/or population impact).

What I mean by loses its name is like when a system is remnants, its just that the remnants of "insert name" i dont actually mean stripped. I mean it loses its tropical storm title. And I think it would be AWESOME if they tracked every mid-latidude wave of LP, it would be an awesome scale and categorization of events would be sweet. Just save the names to when they cross a certain threshold whatever that is decided apon. I think tracking every wave in the tropics is a fun feat.

[turtlehurricane]

Bad idea since there are so many mid-latitude cyclones per season and they often have complex interactions. There's no way they're actually going to name every mid-latitude cyclone with wintry precip so the naming process will be biased and in the end worthless from a scientific perspective. I think it'll be confusing to the public too.

[hurricaneschwartz]

I'm not sure I agree with that. The cherry picking could be problematic. But then you run into questions of what types of events qualify etc. But going back to the poor hurricane analogy ... Even crap storms (or mostly crap storms) get names. Obviously a problem here if covering the whole US is it seems fairy easy to run thru the list.

But based on Masters' post they will focus on only 'big' storms so it doesn't seem they plan on getting far through the list.

I'd almost rather see it be some sort of numbered scale. That would have some regional qualifications I suppose.

My point is that the question will give us an idea of how "loose" their standards will be. If they limit the storm names to truly MAJOR storms, it may be fine.

I still don't like the names they chose. It seems frivolous to have these silly names when potentially life-threatening storms are looming. Wouldn't it be better if they named the storms after famous, pioneering meteorologists? Make it a tribute to those who were the early leaders, from the numerical modelers to TV pioneers from the 50s. There would be a lot less criticism if that was done.

Glenn

[Ed Lizard]

No one knows how TORCON is developed so don't hold your breath.

Assuming Dr Forbes uses similar methodology to the SPC forecast mets, his TorCon number should be an integer about 4 times the percentage of the SPC tornado risk percentages (10% equating to about 4 because of doubling the radius from 25 miles from a point to 50 miles).

Obviously not directly copied from SPC, as he does Day 2 TorCons, I'm guessing SREF values on STP and the such, and a touch of seat of the pants.

Still think this can cause confusion, and still wondering what happens when HPC and NWS offices (which I stated before, don't (I believe) coordinate the way NHC and local offices do) have different forecast ideas than TWC. And what of potential high impact events showing on only some of the models, and/or not well supportedy the ensembles. And there is no science in deciding not to name a storm that drops over a foot in Albany because it will rain on the I-95 cities. Which again comes down to "how many Winter storms does TWC anticipate being named?" question.

Recall, NHC names existing systems, and goes with a color coded probabilty forecast, TWC would name high impact storms up to 72 hours in advance. In fact, naming a storm when it is an almost no-miss Nowcast situation defeats the purpose of naming a Winter storm.

[turtlehurricane]

Assuming Dr Forbes uses similar methodology to the SPC forecast mets, his TorCon number should be an integer about 4 times the percentage of the SPC tornado risk percentages (10% equating to about 4 because of doubling the radius from 25 miles from a point to 50 miles).

Obviously not directly copied from SPC, as he does Day 2 TorCons, I'm guessing SREF values on STP and the such, and a touch of seat of the pants.

Still think this can cause confusion, and still wondering what happens when HPC and NWS offices (which I stated before, don't (I believe) coordinate the way NHC and local offices do) have different forecast ideas than TWC. And what of potential high impact events showing on only some of the models, and/or not well supportedy the ensembles. And there is no science in deciding not to name a storm that drops over a foot in Albany because it will rain on the I-95 cities. Which again comes down to "how many Winter storms does TWC anticipate being named?" question.

Recall, NHC names existing systems, and goes with a color coded probabilty forecast, TWC would name high impact storms up to 72 hours in advance. In fact, naming a storm when it is an almost no-miss Nowcast situation defeats the purpose of naming a Winter storm.

A bigger problem with naming storms 72 hours in advance is they usually aren't even born yet at that stage, the ingredients will be coming together but there'll be no storm. That's like the NHC declaring hurricanes 72 hours in advance because it was on the GFS.

[PottercountyWXobserver]

Bad idea since there are so many mid-latitude cyclones per season and they often have complex interactions. There's no way they're actually going to name every mid-latitude cyclone with wintry precip so the naming process will be biased and in the end worthless from a scientific perspective. I think it'll be confusing to the public too.

The complex interactions are no more complex than a tropical systems formation. You wouldn't name every mid-latitude cyclone, just assign numbers to the weaker ones. The naming process wouldn't be biased either, you think the NEISS scale is biased?? You can create a formula with equations to reach a scientific threshold for naming certain systems with mathematics, just have to create parameters and stick with them. I don't think it would be confusing at all to the public, they understand the difference between a 1 and a 5 and a 5 from a 10. A 9 or a 10 would be something like a 93' or what have you. Like I said, just don't name mid-latitude systems that are 1-4 strength or whatever you deside on a scale. To me a 1-10 scale would work best. 1-5 works for hurricanes, but a 1-10 would be needed for mid-latitude storms because of the varying amount of parameters that can affect a place, and some parameters could weigh more heavily in an equation.

[Ian]

What I mean by loses its name is like when a system is remnants, its just that the remnants of "insert name" i dont actually mean stripped. I mean it loses its tropical storm title. And I think it would be AWESOME if they tracked every mid-latidude wave of LP, it would be an awesome scale and categorization of events would be sweet. Just save the names to when they cross a certain threshold whatever that is decided apon. I think tracking every wave in the tropics is a fun feat.

This stuff is all tracked somewhere whether or not you have access to maps like you do for hurricane seasons. Something tells me creating those types of maps for winter storms is one of the last things on TWC's mind with this decision. Even if it was, you'd gotta think they'd keep that info proprietary for a while at least as it probably gives them a forecasting advantage.

The last few years have highlighted the difficulty NOAA/NWS has in communicating risk in today's information environment. I do think they are changing relatively quickly at this point, and mainly in the right direction, but they're not going to have the ease a super corp like NBC/TWC/Wunder/etc can for quick deployed "policy making".

Maybe this is just a way of pushing the issue by TWC et al. It's an interesting ploy.. doubt the story disappears anytime soon.

[Ian]

My point is that the question will give us an idea of how "loose" their standards will be. If they limit the storm names to truly MAJOR storms, it may be fine.

I still don't like the names they chose. It seems frivolous to have these silly names when potentially life-threatening storms are looming. Wouldn't it be better if they named the storms after famous, pioneering meteorologists? Make it a tribute to those who were the early leaders, from the numerical modelers to TV pioneers from the 50s. There would be a lot less criticism if that was done.

Glenn

I've had some similar issues with these "cutesy" naming contests... many "storm names" of late are dumb at best. If Hurricanes weren't already named would we consider doing the same for a storm like Katrina? That is a cool idea wrt pioneers.. I didn't know there were met pioneers.

[PottercountyWXobserver]

I've had some similar issues with these "cutesy" naming contests... many "storm names" of late are dumb at best. If Hurricanes weren't already named would we consider doing the same for a storm like Katrina? That is a cool idea wrt pioneers.. I didn't know there were met pioneers.

I personally think the names should be voted on like Friv said, have like a max amount of votes per IP address. Either that or just dedicate names that are meteorologically relevant. I honestly think this topic has potential, I just hope the HPC takes over eventually just like the NHC does for hurricanes, I think that would be super cool!

[The Great Zo]

I don't think the average end user knows what a winter storm warning means or if they would prepare any differently if one was in effect. ... I would rather you guys be able to spend more time ... issuing more impact based information and forecasts.

There are certainly those within the NWS that would prefer that the focus is shifted more toward getting the forecast numbers and expected impact correct, rather than spending loads of time hand-wringing over "headline" decisions. What constitutes a headline can differ from office to office, from forecaster to forecaster, and even from week to week on the calendar. All that apparent disagreement might make an organization look like they're having trouble speaking with a consistent message. In reality, if you pulled back the VTEC and looked at the numbers being produced by a bunch of well-educated mets, I bet the forecasts would line up pretty well most of the time.

The extreme solution would be to do away with headlines entirely, and let the forecast speak for itself. That's not a completely reasonable approach during winter weather, where sometimes the "headline-level" threats are not easily quantifiable in the forecast (such as freezing rain amounts, black ice, and so on). It's especially applicable, though, when dealing with strict criteria-based headlines such as heat and wind chill products, which essentially should be able to just "fall out" of the numerical forecast data.

The NWS is all about Decision Support Services (DSS) right now, but ideally, an educated user base should be able to make their decisions based on the forecast -- not because they required a specific headline to be issued. Ideally, an educated broadcast met should focus on explaining the impacts rather than the headlines, because that's the most important part of it for the general public -- not the watches, warnings, and advisories that (at times) might make the situation tougher to understand in a 2-minute spot coming out of a commercial break. Even with that said, there is still utility for winter weather headlines, especially in complex situations where a simple snowfall amount isn't going to tell the whole story. The NWS won't likely abandon that in the near future, although I don't anticipate you'll be seeing any cutesy names in the next WSW .

[Ian]

Recall, NHC names existing systems, and goes with a color coded probabilty forecast, TWC would name high impact storms up to 72 hours in advance. In fact, naming a storm when it is an almost no-miss Nowcast situation defeats the purpose of naming a Winter storm.

It reminds me a little of the reaction to Joplin by upping the warning warnings that are inherently flawed enough that scaring the **** out of people ends up in nothing happening more often than not. I can't remember which towns were scheduled to be wiped off the earth on April 14, but they are all still standing today. Sometimes being too reactionary is not the best idea. This might not be reactionary in the same sense but it seems like an idea that is still fairly early in the initial phase. Maybe they're just hiding a lot from us to leave us perplexed and have a grand plan worked out... but the statements from both TWC and Wunder make it sound like they're hoping for the best and will figure it out as they go.

[Ed Lizard]

The complex interactions are no more complex than a tropical systems formation. You wouldn't name every mid-latitude cyclone, just assign numbers to the weaker ones. The naming process wouldn't be biased either, you think the NEISS scale is biased?? You can create a formula with equations to reach a scientific threshold for naming certain systems with mathematics, just have to create parameters and stick with them. I don't think it would be confusing at all to the public, they understand the difference between a 1 and a 5 and a 5 from a 10. A 9 or a 10 would be something like a 93' or what have you. Like I said, just don't name mid-latitude systems that are 1-4 strength or whatever you deside on a scale. To me a 1-10 scale would work best. 1-5 works for hurricanes, but a 1-10 would be needed for mid-latitude storms because of the varying amount of parameters that can affect a place, and some parameters could weigh more heavily in an equation.

Which is what I (and Turtle) said, NHC names existing cyclones that meet the criteria for being tropical or subtropical. The equivalent would be TWC issuing lemons, mandarins and cherries as confidence in a significant Winter storm grows.

And TWC already said Atlanta would have different standards for a nameable storm than the Northeast, and that naming would also be a function of population impacts.