HurricaneJosh Posted February 21, 2013 Author Share Posted February 21, 2013 I know you the Euro, but I'm actually leaning GFS right now Well, maybe I want this to be a dud cuz I'm too slammed right now to chase it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Well, maybe I want this to be a dud cuz I'm too slammed right now to chase it. Maybe some yoga would help with these negative thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Maybe some yoga would help with these negative thoughts? More like a burger or some sugar laden treat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Certainly a lot of convection in the area, although nothing particularly interesting stands out at this time (maybe some very broad rotation). If GFS is to be believed, we should be looking at something resembling a lopsided TS in 36 hrs time. Euro still quite a bit slower to get going, as pointed out already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 12Z Euro much stronger, west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 12Z Euro much stronger, west. Looks to intensify right up to landfall on the free ECMWF site, but any American man of adventure looking to chase would have to spring into action immediately, and our favorite intrepid chaser has been dropping hints that we shall again depend on the Oz Cyclone Chasers, and they seem to suggest WA is a long trip for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 22, 2013 Author Share Posted February 22, 2013 12Z Euro much stronger, west. Yup, saw that. Looks to intensify right up to landfall on the free ECMWF site, but any American man of adventure looking to chase would have to spring into action immediately, and our favorite intrepid chaser has been dropping hints that we shall again depend on the Oz Cyclone Chasers, and they seem to suggest WA is a long trip for them. Yeah, it's election season in L.A. and I'm swamped-- working for three candidates. I'm gonna have to sit this one out. It's cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 22, 2013 Author Share Posted February 22, 2013 Cyclone Haruna is close to landfall on the W coast of Madagascar with winds of 90 kt, as per the JTWC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 22, 2013 Author Share Posted February 22, 2013 Cyclone Haruna makes landfall on the Madagascar's sparsely-populated W coast with winds of ~90 kt. A small city called Morombe is apparently in the eye. Pretty nice MW presentation: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Yup, saw that. Yeah, it's election season in L.A. and I'm swamped-- working for three candidates. I'm gonna have to sit this one out. It's cool. No response to open trolling? Hurtyhurtz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Might still be a classified system when its inland East of Freemantle. American themed bar there, waitresses in US flag bikinis, Budweiser. At least in 1985. Looks stout at landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Yowza! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Yowza! ECM has 130knots @ 944mb by 96 hours Nice SCAT pass as well. Looks like some broad circulation at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 23, 2013 Author Share Posted February 23, 2013 ECM has 130knots @ 944mb by 96 hours Yep, the modeling for this thing has been red-hawt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 23, 2013 Author Share Posted February 23, 2013 And so the fun begins... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 Yep, the modeling for this thing has been red-hawt. You betcha (830mb MPI lol) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 New GFS is quick to the coast, landfall in about 2 days, but very slow after. Eyealling numbers for YBRM (Broome) on AccuWx PPV, looks like about a foot of rain in the next week. I don't have a calculator handy, but about 4 inches in the next 24 hours alone. Just issued 0651Z 95 knots, and I think they do the 10 minute thing. Josh will know. FORECAST DATADate/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure[uTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa+12: 23/1800: 16.3S 118.1E: 070 [130]: 030 [055]: 996+24: 24/0600: 17.0S 118.0E: 080 [150]: 040 [075]: 991+36: 24/1800: 17.4S 118.1E: 090 [165]: 050 [095]: 984+48: 25/0600: 17.9S 118.3E: 110 [205]: 060 [110]: 977+60: 25/1800: 18.5S 118.8E: 130 [240]: 080 [150]: 958+72: 26/0600: 19.3S 119.3E: 150 [280]: 095 [175]: 944REMARKS:Dvorak DT of 2.5 obtained on last couple of VIS images based on 0.4-0.5 CurvedBand wrap on last few images. The system was assigned an initial classificationof T1.5 at 18Z. [T1.5 based on very favourable conditions for development]. METand PAT are at 2.0 and FT is assigned [and in any case constrained] to 2.0. Noobjective intensity analysis aids available.The system has shown a marked increase in organisation even against the diurnaltrend. Shear is low, SSTs are very high and there is not expected to be any dryair. Consequently it is expected to intensify steadily with a period of rapidintensification likely at some stage. given the very favourableconditions.Although outflow is confined to northern quadrants at present, byMonday the system should develop an outflow channel to the south.The system is expected to move slowly to the southwest before turning southwardsand then southeast as a mid-level trough passing to the south erodes the ridge.Model guidance still shows some spread but amongst models that intensify thesystem there is better agreement.Copyright Commonwealth of Australia==The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 23/1300 UTC by Perth TCWC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 Whoa, Nellie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 23, 2013 Author Share Posted February 23, 2013 The BoM's forecast has the cyclone turning S and then SSE as it accelerates toward the coast. They seem to be following the Euro solution, as their track trajectory (shown below) suggests a landfall near 20S 120E-- basically what the Euro is showing. This is a desolate section of the Pilbara coast, maybe 100 mi E of Port Hedland (pop. ~15K). Interestingly, they have the cyclone strengthening rapidly in the last day of the forecast, with the winds increasing 35 kt between 48 and 72 hr. The 72-hr intensity is 95 kt (10-min)-- a high-end Cat 3 on our scale. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 The BoM's forecast has the cyclone turning S and then SSE as it accelerates toward the coast. They seem to be following the Euro solution, as their track trajectory (shown below) suggests a landfall near 20S 120E-- basically what the Euro is showing. This is a desolate section of the Pilbara coast, maybe 100 mi E of Port Hedland (pop. ~15K). Interestingly, they have the cyclone strengthening rapidly in the last day of the forecast, with the winds increasing 35 kt between 48 and 72 hr. The 72-hr intensity is 95 kt (10-min)-- a high-end Cat 3 on our scale. cyclone_track.png Do you know anybody who is a definite go to chase this? It is looking to be an impressive storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 23, 2013 Author Share Posted February 23, 2013 Do you know anybody who is a definite go to chase this? It is looking to be an impressive storm. There's one dude who might-- a photographer named Steve Brooks. He asked me to come chase it with him-- to partner up on the effort-- but I am just too busy this week. (Election season here.) The Oz Cyclone Chaser dudes are going to sit it out, as they're Queensland-based and it's not easy for them to get across the continent to the remote corners of the Pilbara. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 23, 2013 Author Share Posted February 23, 2013 The 12Z Euro is out, and it's sticking really solidly to the idea of an intense, slow-moving cyclone coming ashore about halfway between Port Hedland and Sandfire Roadhouse. Still too early to talk landfall points-- as the system doesn't even have a coherent center yet-- but it's interesting how steady the Euro's been these last couple of runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoastLow Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 It is a big thing to try and fly across to Broome. It's pretty much a holiday destination with flights only from major cities and then they aren't daily flights. Flying across the continent from the east coast is expensive at the best of times (its a 3000km flight), add one or two connecting flights to that and it would easily make it a $1k chase just in return airfares. I've been watching the visible images for this thing, there is a mountain of heavy convection going up all around it. If for some reason the track lasted an extra 24 hours than forecast, this could easily go Cat 5 and we may even see it strengthen, or at the very least hold it's intensity, well inland I suspect. it's definitely got the rotation going nicely, it just needs more time to gather in moisture and heat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 Finally been classified (17S on NRL) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 24, 2013 Author Share Posted February 24, 2013 It is a big thing to try and fly across to Broome. It's pretty much a holiday destination with flights only from major cities and then they aren't daily flights. Flying across the continent from the east coast is expensive at the best of times (its a 3000km flight), add one or two connecting flights to that and it would easily make it a $1k chase just in return airfares. I've been watching the visible images for this thing, there is a mountain of heavy convection going up all around it. If for some reason the track lasted an extra 24 hours than forecast, this could easily go Cat 5 and we may even see it strengthen, or at the very least hold it's intensity, well inland I suspect. it's definitely got the rotation going nicely, it just needs more time to gather in moisture and heat. Yeah, when I first started exploring airfares within Oz, I was surprised-- it seems even more expensive than flying across the USA. So I can understand why the Oz Cyclone Chaser dudes need to be really selective about which WA subjects they go after. Busts would be extremely expensive. Finally been classified (17S on NRL) 20130224.0032.mtsat1r.x.ir1km_bw.97SINVEST.30kts-1000mb-166S-1178E.100pc.jpg Woo hoo! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 24, 2013 Author Share Posted February 24, 2013 I've noticed that the BoM's 72-hr forecast has trended W, bringing the forecast landfall point quite a bit closer to Port Hedland. Interestin'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 24, 2013 Author Share Posted February 24, 2013 Here's the BoM's latest track forecast, showing the center just onshore a little E of Hedland within 72 hr. The intensity forecast suggests it'll be around a Cat 3 (USA) when it comes ashore. This all having been said, the system hasn't been in any hurry to get organized. It's already approaching the coast, so it's going to start running out of room to develop if it doesn't get going soon: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 24, 2013 Author Share Posted February 24, 2013 The JTWC has just designated this a cyclone, and they bring it much further W than the BoM. The landfall is right at Port Hedland with winds of 85 kt. From the forecast discussion: TC 17S IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY RAPIDLY AFTER TAU 24 TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 85 KNOTS PRIOR TO MAKING LANDFALL NEAR PORT HEDLAND. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER LAND BY TAU 120 AS IT RECURVES AHEAD OF A DEEP MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. Interestin'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 24, 2013 Author Share Posted February 24, 2013 Cyclone Rusty has been named, and a Cyclone Warning has been hoisted for the Pilbara. Not sure it's going to be the epic bomb shown in the modeling, bit the BoM does bring it up to a hurricane (Cat 3 on their scale) as it approaches the coast: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 24, 2013 Author Share Posted February 24, 2013 The 00Z Euro has shifted W and brings the cyclone ashore very close to PHE in around 3.5 days. The 00Z GFS is even further W, suggesting landfall near Karratha in around 4.5 days. Given this, I think the JTWC solution looks more reasonable than the BoM's far-E one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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