HurricaneJosh Posted February 4, 2013 Author Share Posted February 4, 2013 Big-time peak-season snooze going on. Lame. Almost exactly two years ago, Cyclone Yasi-- a very large, intense storm-- smashed Queensland. The center crossed the coast near Mission Beach with a central pressure of 929 mb and estimated winds of 125 kt (1-min)-- a solid Cat 4 on our scale. The wind radii were enormous, and even population centers very far from the center-- like Townsville-- had winds at or near hurricane force. A huge event for this region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 10, 2013 Author Share Posted February 10, 2013 Off-the-charts lameness for the S Hemisphere-- in what is essentially their "September." I feel sorry for the cyclone dudes down there-- this is even worse than our season was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Nothing is going to happen for 10 days. At least. Medium range forecasting is just #climo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 12, 2013 Author Share Posted February 12, 2013 Medium range forecasting is just #climo Totally over the S Hemisphere. February is shot-- ain't holdin' my breath for March. We're halfway to our season anyway. Woo hoo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Totally over the S Hemisphere. February is shot-- ain't holdin' my breath for March. We're halfway to our season anyway. Woo hoo.That was me being sarcastic, btw. I think as we get into March, we'll have better chances. But I thought that about the EPAC in October and we got sandy instead. *shrugs* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 12, 2013 Author Share Posted February 12, 2013 That was me being sarcastic, btw. I think as we get into March, we'll have better chances. But I thought that about the EPAC in October and we got sandy instead. *shrugs* Oh, duh. Of course. I didn't realize you were being sarcastic, and I was like, "How is it sticking with climo to predict nothing at peak season?" I've forgotten how to read your tone since we never communicate no mores. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 By the end of Feb, the S Hemi will be a hotbed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 By the end of Feb, the S Hemi will be a hotbed. Yeah, but it will probably be March before there would be anything for Josh to chase Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 12, 2013 Author Share Posted February 12, 2013 Yeah, but it will probably be March before there would be anything for Josh to chase Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 I didn't even think of checking models for Australia today. Good thing I follow the Oz Cyclone Chasers on Facebook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Post truncation, but GFS has something for WA. And new Euro has it. And GFS ensembles also has a signal. For something this far out in time... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 17, 2013 Author Share Posted February 17, 2013 I notice the 00Z Euro has trended W and weaker. Let's see what happens with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 I notice the 00Z Euro has trended W and weaker. Let's see what happens with that. Over a week out, but 12Z Euro has it again, GFS has it, and some GFS ensembles clearly have it. Plenty of time to nail down whether it looks like a winner or not, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Delayed landfall, as new Euro moves it West away from Australia before turning it back, but from a distance, the extra time over water seems to make it more chase worthy. Hint, hint. GFS ensembles are quicker. The signal for the cyclone is there, usual week to 10 day differences on track... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Blown up version of happy picture stolen from Facebook.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Blown up version of happy picture stolen from Facebook.... 0Z ECMWF looks awfully similar for something 8 or 9 days away. Closed low by Friday night. GFS remains a bit sooner with landfall. I think apparent spread in Euro ensemble is because of two (distinct) forecasted cyclones. I'm guessing (hard to tell, even w/ GFS vorticity) the system develops from the disturbed weather at the Top End. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Euro trending back towards an earlier landfall, just after 12Z on the 26th, close to the GFS solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 20, 2013 Author Share Posted February 20, 2013 Thanks, Ed, for watering this thread. I've been nuts with work this week. Certainly an interesting scenarios shaping up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 20, 2013 Author Share Posted February 20, 2013 The 00Z GFS shows a powerful cyclone coming ashore near Broome around Day 5. The 00Z Euro shows a powerful cyclone coming ashore further W-- in the Pilbara, near Pardoo-- around Day 7. In general, the solutions have trended E over the last couple of days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 20, 2013 Author Share Posted February 20, 2013 In other news... Cyclone Haruna has formed in the Mozambique Channel and threatens Madagascar's W coast. The JTWC has it as a TS, but this looks like a Cat-1 hurricane to me: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 In other news... Cyclone Haruna has formed in the Mozambique Channel and threatens Madagascar's W coast. The JTWC has it as a TS, but this looks like a Cat-1 hurricane to me: JTWC now has Haruna at 70 kt per the 12Z advisory. The eye has really become quite large. There is some cooler, dry air pushing in from the south, but with low shear and very weak mean flow, not enough of that dry air is wrapping into the system to cause weakening. The vast majority of members in the 00Z ECMWF, CMC and UKMET ensembles all brought Haruna into the southwest corner of Madigascar, while much of the GFS ensemble suite was a miss to the south. The 12Z op GFS appears to have shifted north, so I might expect the GFS ensemble to follow with a landfall extremely likely at this point. Perhaps very near or just south of Toliara. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 The 00Z GFS shows a powerful cyclone coming ashore near Broome around Day 5. The 00Z Euro shows a powerful cyclone coming ashore further W-- in the Pilbara, near Pardoo-- around Day 7. In general, the solutions have trended E over the last couple of days. Trended too far east now with the 12Z. Genesis occurs so close to land the system never even has the chance to get its act together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Hoping the 12Z GFS and Euro runs ingested a bad potato during initialization. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Hoping the 12Z GFS and Euro runs ingested a bad potato during initialization. Or a bad wallaby? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 21, 2013 Author Share Posted February 21, 2013 Trended too far east now with the 12Z. Genesis occurs so close to land the system never even has the chance to get its act together. Ha ha ha, I just noticed. What a buzzkill after all those mega-juicy runs. What's interesting is that both models are now showing it too far E and too close to shore to really get it together. Lame trend. P.S. Thanks for keeping an eye on Haruna-- appreciate it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aslkahuna Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Here's tonight's shot of TC16S (Haruna). JT now has it up to 95kt and peaking in 12 hours at 100kt. Steve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 21, 2013 Author Share Posted February 21, 2013 Wow-- looks pretty good! Funny how large the eye is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 21, 2013 Author Share Posted February 21, 2013 The 00Z Euro still looks lame-- keeps the system so close to the Kimberley it never develops much. But the 00Z GFS is quite provocative, showing a very strong landfall between Days 6 and 7: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 21, 2013 Author Share Posted February 21, 2013 Cyclone Haruna approaching Madagascar. The Navy/NRL site says 100 kt, but I'm having a hard time buying that. Looks like 85 kt, if ya ask me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 The 00Z Euro still looks lame-- keeps the system so close to the Kimberley it never develops much. But the 00Z GFS is quite provocative, showing a very strong landfall between Days 6 and 7: I know you the Euro, but I'm actually leaning GFS right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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