HurricaneJosh Posted January 23, 2013 Author Share Posted January 23, 2013 Cyclone Peta has formed very close to the Pilbara coast, about halfway between Karratha and Port Hedland. It's a weak TS on our scale, and it should move ashore near Karratha soon-- so it shouldn't have major impact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted January 23, 2013 Author Share Posted January 23, 2013 A visible shot of Cyclone Peta, which is centered pretty close to the Pilbara coast with winds of ~35 kt: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted January 23, 2013 Author Share Posted January 23, 2013 Cyclone Peta came ashore a bit E of Karratha as a Cat 1 AUS (weak TS on our scale). I was too lazy to look at the surface obs. In other news, a Cyclone Garry-- another TS-strength system-- is in the SPAC, a bit NE of American Samoa, and moving away from the islands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted January 23, 2013 Author Share Posted January 23, 2013 Peta peters out in the Pilbara... I hear a wx-nerd tongue-twister in this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Did she pick a peck of pickled peppers in the Pilbara? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted January 23, 2013 Author Share Posted January 23, 2013 Did she pick a peck of pickled peppers in the Pilbara? Totally what I was thinking. Great minds... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Stolen from Pilbara Weather's FB page... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted January 23, 2013 Author Share Posted January 23, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted January 24, 2013 Author Share Posted January 24, 2013 Oswald's remnant low has been causing heavy rains and rough conditions in Queensland these past few days as it's slowly drifted SSE, along the coast. In other (non) news, the GFS and Euro are looking completely boring well into February. Blah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoastLow Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 To give you an example of the unique effects cyclone remnants have on Australia, any west coast cyclones that dissipate over land head over the continent as they head polewards (as opposed to your Atlantic/Gulf systems which zip out over the Atlantic). An example of this is the remnant trough of Narelle that is currently stretching down from the monsoon trough over south eastern Australia. These troughs are great for welcome summer rain events. You can also see that cyclones that occur over the very northern end of Queensland tend to do a similar thing, but they travel down the whole Queensland coast (and into New South Wales if still strong enough). I think the land interaction and clockwise rotation of the remnants encourage the Queensland storms to coast cruise when they die. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aslkahuna Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 That situation with west coast storms is very similar to what happens with GOM storm in the US that track well into the interior of the US sometimes with a fair degree of intensity. In both cases the relatively flat terrain of the Plains towards the OH river Valley and the overall flat terrain of Australia proper are significant factors Steve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted January 26, 2013 Author Share Posted January 26, 2013 To give you an example of the unique effects cyclone remnants have on Australia, any west coast cyclones that dissipate over land head over the continent as they head polewards (as opposed to your Atlantic/Gulf systems which zip out over the Atlantic). An example of this is the remnant trough of Narelle that is currently stretching down from the monsoon trough over south eastern Australia. These troughs are great for welcome summer rain events. You can also see that cyclones that occur over the very northern end of Queensland tend to do a similar thing, but they travel down the whole Queensland coast (and into New South Wales if still strong enough). I think the land interaction and clockwise rotation of the remnants encourage the Queensland storms to coast cruise when they die. Interesting-- thanks for this explanation. I understand why the W Coast systems would bring significant weather to the interior, but I guess I don't understand why the E Coast systems would hug the coast like that. Oswald's remnants seem to be causing more mischief than usual, I would think. That situation with west coast storms is very similar to what happens with GOM storm in the US that track well into the interior of the US sometimes with a fair degree of intensity. In both cases the relatively flat terrain of the Plains towards the OH river Valley and the overall flat terrain of Australia proper are significant factors Steve Ah, that makes sense. Good analogy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted January 26, 2013 Author Share Posted January 26, 2013 Oswald's remnant low is really causing quite a bit of disruption in Queensland-- not just extremely heavy rainfall, but also gale winds and even a couple of small tornadoes. It's quite a weather maker for a non-cyclone-- and it's interesting that this could end up being the big tropical story for Oz this season. lolz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 Oswald's remnant low is really causing quite a bit of disruption in Queensland-- not just extremely heavy rainfall, but also gale winds and even a couple of small tornadoes. It's quite a weather maker for a non-cyclone-- and it's interesting that this could end up being the big tropical story for Oz this season. lolz Stolen from Oz Cyclone Chaser's FB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted January 27, 2013 Author Share Posted January 27, 2013 Oswald's remnant low continues to cause widespread flooding and tornado threats in populated areas of Queensland, including Brisbane. It's a big weather story, but since it's not a tropical cyclone, I'm not that motivated to report on it. In the meantime, a cyclone has formed well E of Madagascar. Both the JTWC and Meteo France take it W, toward Madagascar, but recurve it S just before it reaches the island. It should be noted that the Euro brings the cyclone very close to Madagascar and makes it quite strong as it moves just a hair offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted January 27, 2013 Author Share Posted January 27, 2013 The Queensland flood crisis from ex-cyclone Oswald continues. Meantime both the JTWC and Meteo France-- as well as the Euro and GFS-- keep Cyclone 13 off of Madagascar's E coast. (Meteo France hasn't named the system yet.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted January 28, 2013 Author Share Posted January 28, 2013 My Facebook feed became overloaded with minute-by-minute updates about these ex-cyclone Oswald floods. I get that it's sort of loosely cyclone-related, but I definitely don't need up-to-the-minute coverage from five Facebook pages Re: freshwater flooding in Queensland. I'm making some temporary adjustments to my news feed until this story passes. I'm passionate about tropical cyclones, but freshwater flooding puts me to sleep-- even if it's here in California. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoastLow Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 Shame about the focus on the floods on your FB page. I know you are a tropical weather purist so that would be annoying. It's interesting to hear people talk about this weather system, this was a much more normal setup in the 70's, but people have very short memories. We're just returning to a proper la Nina. However, there is a lot more to this system than just the rain (which really has been exceptional with 550mm in 24 hours reported at more than one location). Winds are still at 100km/h gusts and ocean swells at 10 metres. What makes these swells more impressive is that the storm has spent a lot of it's time over the barrier reef, so it's influence on oceanic waves has been much less significant than it could've been. It's interesting, I live a long way south and about 100km from the coast, we're just feeling the edge of the system now and it's bringing in very, very humid, warm air with it. If I hadn't been told by meteorologists it was extratropical now, I'd for sure think it was a tropical storm. I don't know when this storm will leave the Australian coast, or in what shape it will be in, but if it leaves as far south as Sydney as predicted and moves rapidly poleward, the intensification could put New Zealand in some trouble. I personally think this system has a lot more life left in it yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted January 28, 2013 Author Share Posted January 28, 2013 Shame about the focus on the floods on your FB page. I know you are a tropical weather purist so that would be annoying. Oh, it's fine-- don't listen to me complaining. I feel silly now that I even remarked on it. It's interesting to hear people talk about this weather system, this was a much more normal setup in the 70's, but people have very short memories. We're just returning to a proper la Nina. However, there is a lot more to this system than just the rain (which really has been exceptional with 550mm in 24 hours reported at more than one location). Winds are still at 100km/h gusts and ocean swells at 10 metres. What makes these swells more impressive is that the storm has spent a lot of it's time over the barrier reef, so it's influence on oceanic waves has been much less significant than it could've been. It's interesting, I live a long way south and about 100km from the coast, we're just feeling the edge of the system now and it's bringing in very, very humid, warm air with it. If I hadn't been told by meteorologists it was extratropical now, I'd for sure think it was a tropical storm. I don't know when this storm will leave the Australian coast, or in what shape it will be in, but if it leaves as far south as Sydney as predicted and moves rapidly poleward, the intensification could put New Zealand in some trouble. I personally think this system has a lot more life left in it yet. Very interesting, actually. I didn't know this sort of setup was common in the past. We have the same thing happen here in the States, where the media-- and residents-- act like an event is unprecedented, simply because it hasn't happened in 30 years. (For example, Sandy: yeah, it was bad, but it wasn't unprecedented.) Interesting also that it seems to be bringing tropical air to your neck of the woods. The effects on the coast have looked like a tropical cyclone, with the wind and everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted January 28, 2013 Author Share Posted January 28, 2013 All agencies have Cyclone Felleng recurving and threading between Madagascar and the Mascarenes as it intensifies into a hurricane. Meteo France is a bit more bullish than JTWC: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 how about that sea foam My Facebook feed became overloaded with minute-by-minute updates about these ex-cyclone Oswald floods. I get that it's sort of loosely cyclone-related, but I definitely don't need up-to-the-minute coverage from five Facebook pages Re: freshwater flooding in Queensland. I'm making some temporary adjustments to my news feed until this story passes. I'm passionate about tropical cyclones, but freshwater flooding puts me to sleep-- even if it's here in California. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted January 30, 2013 Author Share Posted January 30, 2013 Cyclone Felleng is just off the Madagascar coast with an estimated intensity of 105 kt (as per the JTWC). The storm should move S, basically parallel to the coast, as it intensifies to Cat 4: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 1, 2013 Author Share Posted February 1, 2013 Cyclone Felleng peaked as a Cat 4 as it neared Madagascar. It seemed to nudge a little closer to the coast than forecast-- but now it's weakening (down to 70 kt) and is probably about to pull away: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 1, 2013 Author Share Posted February 1, 2013 This aside... The outlook for the entire S Hemisphere looks exceedingly grim over the next 10 days, with neither the Euro nor the GFS showing anything forming. Keep in mind, February is essentially their September, tropical-cyclone-wise. Laaaaaaaaaaaaame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoastLow Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Hang in there Josh, the monsoon trough is still very active and there is lots of instability about. Just last night I watched the satellite run on the TV weather and the whole Gulf of Carpentaria exploded in afternoon convection.. Anything is possible and conditions are ripe for a quick forming Gulf system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 1, 2013 Author Share Posted February 1, 2013 Hang in there Josh, the monsoon trough is still very active and there is lots of instability about. Just last night I watched the satellite run on the TV weather and the whole Gulf of Carpentaria exploded in afternoon convection.. Anything is possible and conditions are ripe for a quick forming Gulf system. Well, OK. Thanks for the words of hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Well, OK. Thanks for the words of hope. Nothing is going to happen for 10 days. At least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Nothing is going to happen for 10 days. At least. The MJO train departed. Too bad subtropicals aren't common in this basin to throw cyclogenesis forecasts to the toilet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 1, 2013 Author Share Posted February 1, 2013 Nothing is going to happen for 10 days. At least. Well, thx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 The MJO train departed. Too bad subtropicals aren't common in this basin to throw cyclogenesis forecasts to the toilet. 2012 was the worst Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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