Aussie (& S-Hemisphere) Cyclone Action 2012-2013

[HurricaneJosh]

Narelle peaked yesterday, when the BoM declared it a Cat 5 (on the Oz scale) for one or two advices.  Cat 5 on the Oz scale starts at 110 kt (10-min) (rounded to the nearest 5 kt), which is ~125 kt (1-min).  The JTWC never went above 115 kt (1-min), so the BoM apparently felt it was stronger than the JTWC did.

 

Anyhoo... It's now on a slow decline-- and the BoM shows rapid weakening over the next 48 hr, as it moves parallel to Australia's W coast.

[EastCoastLow]

The news reports have sort of been covering the storm. There has been quite a significant effect from it along the coastline as it moves south, it's certainly large/powerful/close enough to shore to be putting decent winds, some good rain and heavy swells onto the shoreline. Just looking at the footage I'd guess at 35kt winds and 4-5m swells.

The outflow has already reached the east coast and has put a bit of a damper on the heatwave conditions over southern Australia, so it's a decent storm to be able to still be cat rated and be producing significant outflow over an entire continent.

[HurricaneJosh]

The news reports have sort of been covering the storm. There has been quite a significant effect from it along the coastline as it moves south, it's certainly large/powerful/close enough to shore to be putting decent winds, some good rain and heavy swells onto the shoreline. Just looking at the footage I'd guess at 35kt winds and 4-5m swells.

The outflow has already reached the east coast and has put a bit of a damper on the heatwave conditions over southern Australia, so it's a decent storm to be able to still be cat rated and be producing significant outflow over an entire continent.

 

Yeah, that is pretty cool, actually-- that it can have such afar-reaching effects.  And I'm glad to hear it's been taking some of the edge off that heatwave.  (We've been hearing about it even in the States.)

 

You also make a good point Re: the effects in WA.  I tend to get so caught up with the core effects that I forget a cyclone can have a real impact, even when the core stays offshore.

[HurricaneJosh]

Narelle aside... The GFS is showing a strong cyclone hitting the same area threatened by Narelle (NW corner of Western Australia) in about a week.

 

Oh, and a cyclone has formed way out in the middle of the S Indian Ocean.  It should move generally W, but it's too early to say whether it will affect the Mascarenes.

[HurricaneJosh]

That new cyclone in the middle of nowhere is named Emang.  While I'm sure to someone on this earth, that's as common as Mike or Tony, to me it just sounds... weird.  

[aslkahuna]

TC Narelle now doing the EPAC Striptease and is rapidly becoming a naked swirl. Hard to say what impact the remnant low will have down the line though sometimes they can rsult in severe weather if they tie in with a front

[HurricaneJosh]

TC Narelle now doing the EPAC Striptease and is rapidly becoming a naked swirl. Hard to say what impact the remnant low will have down the line though sometimes they can rsult in severe weather if they tie in with a front

 

"EPAC striptease"-- ha ha ha!!    

 

So true-- that EPAC cyclones generally seem to die slow, sad deaths-- just wastin' away...

[aslkahuna]

To be expected snce EPAC storm tend to track obliquely into the upwelling region which is larger and colder than the one off Australia. In this case, and often enough the Oz stormr tend to balst full steam ahead into the upwelling zone and get wasted fast.

Stev

[HurricaneJosh]

To be expected snce EPAC storm tend to track obliquely into the upwelling region which is larger and colder than the one off Australia. In this case, and often enough the Oz stormr tend to balst full steam ahead into the upwelling zone and get wasted fast.

Stev

 

Ah, OK.  That makes sense.  It's too bad the Pacific currents are the way they are.  Imagine if we had a Gulf-Stream-like current going up the California coast?  We'd get 'canes!  Would be so awesome.  

[HurricaneJosh]

The GFS and Euro look basically boring for the next 10 days, across the tropical S Hemisphere.  The Euro is hinting at some stuff in the longer range-- including a small cyclone hitting the Pilbara and something else in the Coral Sea, moving away from the coast-- but these elements are quite changeable from run to run.

[HurricaneJosh]

Interestin'.

 

[aslkahuna]

Ah, OK.  That makes sense.  It's too bad the Pacific currents are the way they are.  Imagine if we had a Gulf-Stream-like current going up the California coast?  We'd get 'canes!  Would be so awesome.  

Not just the Pacific-upwelling occurs along the west coasts of All continents in the subtropical latituds.

Steve

[Ed Lizard]

Interestin'.

 

Wind3285032and32mslp_Australia_192.gif

 

 

Still interesting.

[HurricaneJosh]

Still interesting.

 

Yep.  And the GFS is showing it, too (in  addition to about five other cyclones ).  I'm not sensing it'll be a good chase subject, as it looks to develop close to the coast and just kind of scrape along it at a weird angle-- but it's interesting how strong the models make it.

[Ed Lizard]

Yep.  And the GFS is showing it, too (in  addition to about five other cyclones ).  I'm not sensing it'll be a good chase subject, as it looks to develop close to the coast and just kind of scrape along it at a weird angle-- but it's interesting how strong the models make it.

 

How quickly could you get a visa to enter Australia if it looks to make a more direct hit?

[HurricaneJosh]

How quickly could you get a visa to enter Australia if it looks to make a more direct hit?

 

It takes no time-- it's just a formality.  The issue is the travel time.  It would be a no-go.  I can't travel 5,000 miles to chase something that forms 100 miles off the coast.  I need a Yasi or George setup.

[HurricaneJosh]

Freaky run of the Euro has twin cyclones slipping down each side of the Australian continent-- with neither quite making it ashore:

 

[HurricaneJosh]

The Euro has backed off a bit from the above "Kermit the Frog" scenario-- as Steve (ginwx) referred to it on afacebook.

In other news... The BoM is issuing advices on a Tropical Low that's meandering along the S coast of the Gulf of Carpentaria. They expect it to eventually move NE, developing into a cyclone as it gets out over the Gulf.

[HurricaneJosh]

The BoM is issuing advices again on that Gulf low, which they expect to develop into a cyclone.  The Euro still advertises something meandering around the Gulf and growing quite strong before coming ashore on the S coast around Day 5.  The GFS is showing a feature in the same general time and place as well:

 

[HurricaneJosh]

A second tropical low has formed at the Kimberley coast, near Broome.  The BoM's forecast has it moving WSW, parallel to the Pilbara coast, as it develops into a cyclone--thus requiring a Watch for a portion of the coast:

 

[am19psu]

No clue where Oswald is going to go after Tuesday, but if it moves over water, it will blow up.

 

93S is bleh.

[HurricaneJosh]

No clue where Oswald is going to go after Tuesday, but if it moves over water, it will blow up.

 

93S is bleh.

 

Is there a chance Oswald will go out over the Coral Sea and boomerang back toward the coast?  I notice the BoM has it moving along the W coast, then just camps it out over Cape York Peninsula.  The JTWC kills it over the Peninsula, too.

 

93L = the Kimberely low, I assume?

 

[am19psu]

Is there a chance Oswald will go out over the Coral Sea and boomerang back toward the coast?  I notice the BoM has it moving along the W coast, then just camps it out over Cape York Peninsula.  The JTWC kills it over the Peninsula, too.

 

93L = the Kimberely low, I assume?

 

IDQ65001.gif

There is definitely a chance that happens. It could also end up back over the GoC, too.

 

93S is the Kimberley low

[HurricaneJosh]

There is definitely a chance that happens. It could also end up back over the GoC, too.

 

93S is the Kimberley low

 

Oops, I meant "S".  (I guess I'm jumpin' the gun a little to start talking about Ls in January.   )

[icebreaker5221]

How about SH94 sitting between Mozambique and Madagascar?  This system originated over mainland Africa as a long-lived MCV.  Guidance, especially the ECMWF, is not particularly aggressive, but there is a slight chance of some development over the next day or so.  Recent frames suggest that convection has accelerated over the waters, probably along an outflow boundary, leaving a naked swirl in its wake. 

 

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/storm.asp?storm_identifier=SH942013

 

 

[EastCoastLow]

Oswald could possibly head over to the Coral sea, some systems have done it in the past, but very few. The issue is that storms that try to do this have to cross a pretty significant area of high mountains.

They tend to degenerate and cross as rainy depressions and somehow start to spin up again. Never tend to get very strong though. Gulf systems tend to bounce around in the gulf for a while before restrengthening and zipping off west.

The monsoon trough is finally starting to establish over northern Australia.

This very late start to the monsoon season is interesting. Historically, the worst cyclone seasons are the ones that extend well into March and April for Queensland. This year could be such a setup.

[HurricaneJosh]

How about SH94 sitting between Mozambique and Madagascar?  This system originated over mainland Africa as a long-lived MCV.  Guidance, especially the ECMWF, is not particularly aggressive, but there is a slight chance of some development over the next day or so.  Recent frames suggest that convection has accelerated over the waters, probably along an outflow boundary, leaving a naked swirl in its wake. 

 

It's a good question.  I noticed the Euro was hinting at something at something developing there, and climatologically, it's not unheard of.

 

P.S.  I'm glad you flagged this-- thank you.    With all the little stuff sprouting up, I might have missed it.

[HurricaneJosh]

Oswald could possibly head over to the Coral sea, some systems have done it in the past, but very few. The issue is that storms that try to do this have to cross a pretty significant area of high mountains.

They tend to degenerate and cross as rainy depressions and somehow start to spin up again. Never tend to get very strong though. Gulf systems tend to bounce around in the gulf for a while before restrengthening and zipping off west.

The monsoon trough is finally starting to establish over northern Australia.

This very late start to the monsoon season is interesting. Historically, the worst cyclone seasons are the ones that extend well into March and April for Queensland. This year could be such a setup.

 

One thing I feel like I've noticed about the Oz region is that the steering currents always seem to be incredibly weak and confused, andd-- as you suggested-- systems in the Gulf seem to get particularly confused.  

 

I hope you're right that we might see some more interesting action soon.  I remember 2006 and 2007 brought several March-April treasures.  

[HurricaneJosh]

Oswald has fizzled over the Cape York Peninsula.  Meanwhile, the Western Australia low is showing some vigor as it hugs the coastline.  A Cyclone Warning is up for a portion of the Pilbara-- however, a hurricane isn't expected out of this:

 

[Ed Lizard]

SEVERE WEATHER WARNING for DESTRUCTIVE WINDS, HEAVY RAINFALL and ABNORMALLY HIGH TIDES

For people in the

Peninsula,

Northern Tropical Coast and Tablelands,

Herbert and Lower Burdekin and

Central Coast and Whitsundays Forecast Districts.

Issued at 7:20 am Wednesday, 23 January 2013.

Synoptic Situation:

At 4am, Ex-Tropical Cyclone Oswald was situated approximately 40km west northwest of Cooktown and moving in a south southeasterly direction at about 18 kilometres per hour. The monsoon trough extended from Ex-Tropical Cyclone Oswald to the Queensland east coast near Cairns. Vigorous monsoon flow was continuing to the north of Ex-Tropical Cyclone Oswald over Cape York Peninsula.

Destructive winds, with gusts to 125 km/hr, and heavy rainfall, which may lead to flash flooding, are possible in far northern parts of the Peninsula district this morning. Locations which may be affected include Mapoon adn the Torres Strait Islands.