Ed Lizard Posted January 5, 2013 Share Posted January 5, 2013 I subscribe to the Oz Cyclone Chasers on Facebook... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted January 6, 2013 Share Posted January 6, 2013 IDW10800 Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology Western Australia Tropical Cyclone Three Day Outlook for the Western Region Issued at 12:52 pm WST on Sunday 6 January 2013 for the period until midnight WST Wednesday 9 January 2013. Existing Cyclones in the Western Region: Nil. Potential Cyclones: At 8am WST Sunday a tropical low [1001hPa] was located in the Timor Sea near 10.2S 125.8E just to the east of the Western Region. The low is expected to develop and move in a generally west direction into the Western Region on Monday. It is likely to reach cyclone intensity on either Tuesday or Wednesday well north of the Australian mainland. Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on: Monday Moderate Tuesday High Wednesday High Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted January 6, 2013 Author Share Posted January 6, 2013 Run after run, the Euro is really insistent on keeping it just offshore. Wonder if that will change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted January 7, 2013 Author Share Posted January 7, 2013 Latest (12Z) Euro is weaker and further W (offshore). Blah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted January 7, 2013 Author Share Posted January 7, 2013 The BoM has initiated advices on the Tropical Low. This forecast map (below) only shows out to 48 hr-- but the BoM's forecast beyond this has it curving toward the coast, heading in the general direction of the Gascoyne. The Technical Bulletin reads: The TC is forecast to move closer to the WA coast later in the week under the influence of an approaching upper trough, but its longer term movement is uncertain. The 72-hr intensity is 90 kt (10-min) and strengthening-- a Cat 3 on our scale: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted January 8, 2013 Author Share Posted January 8, 2013 Cyclone Narelle has formed. Forecast tracks from the JTWC and BoM both suggest a powerful cyclone probably missing the Gascoyne to the W. (The BoM map only depicts up to 48 hr-- however, their forecast goes out to 72 hr, and in the longer range, they show a subtle bend right, away from the coast, like the JTWC.) I should also point out that the Euro has kept it well offshore, run after run. Anyhoo, it bears watching, given that both agencies bring it up to Cat 4 SS (JTWC: 125 kt (1-min); BoM: 100 kt (10-min)). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 125kt at 20S? That forecast seems sketchy to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted January 8, 2013 Author Share Posted January 8, 2013 125kt at 20S? That forecast seems sketchy to me. It does seem a little bullish, but it's not unheard of. See Vance 1999, which came ashore near Exmouth as a Cat 4 SS. The best-track data have it at 21.4S at 00Z 22 Mar with winds of over 120 kt (1-min): http://db.hellohelp.net/hurdat_storms/storm_search.php#map_top Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 Forecast getting more interesting. Most guidance still keeps Narelle offshore, but the trend is closer to land and stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted January 9, 2013 Author Share Posted January 9, 2013 Forecast getting more interesting. Most guidance still keeps Narelle offshore, but the trend is closer to land and stronger. sh0813.gif What's also interesting is that the JTWC and BoM seem to be reading the tea leaves differently, as the JTWC has trended further from the coast with each forecast, and the BoM has trended closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted January 9, 2013 Author Share Posted January 9, 2013 Narelle is now a Severe Tropical Cyclone-- i.e., a hurricane-- with an intensity of 65 kt (10-min). It's forecast to reach 105 kt-- a Cat 4 SS-- as it heads S, and there's now a Cyclone Watch for the W end of the Pilbara and the Gascoyne. For some reason, the BoM doesn't map their forecasts past 48 hr (grrrr), so I've taken it upon myself to map it. As you can see, they're showing a subtle turning back left, closer to the North West Cape, late in the period: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
28storms Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 I still think the core of this one stays offshore. Canadian has been the only model, to my knowledge, consistently forecasting a WA strike. ECMWF has been very consistent and the GFS has trended west. Hopefully we get some Top End action soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 I still think the core of this one stays offshore. Canadian has been the only model, to my knowledge, consistently forecasting a WA strike. UKMet has been consistently showing a WA strike as well. It's also shifted west over the last 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted January 9, 2013 Author Share Posted January 9, 2013 I still think the core of this one stays offshore. Canadian has been the only model, to my knowledge, consistently forecasting a WA strike. ECMWF has been very consistent and the GFS has trended west. Hopefully we get some Top End action soon. I'm no forecaster, but I'd tend to agree with you. However, I see that both the JTWC and BoM and are now showing a subtle veering to the left (i..e, closer to the coast) late in the forecast period. And the latest JTWC track has edged a bit closer to the North West Cape, it seems to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted January 10, 2013 Author Share Posted January 10, 2013 Narelle is slowly strengthening-- now 75 kt (10-min) as per the BoM-- a Cat 2 SS. Cyclone Warnings have been hoisted for the Gascoyne and W Pilbara-- i.e., the extreme-NW tip of the continent-- but both agencies are forecasting that it will miss to the W. Beyond this immediate threat... We're in an active phase, and the models are hinting at more action after Narelle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted January 10, 2013 Author Share Posted January 10, 2013 The JTWC's latest forecast brings a Ca-4 SS cyclone uncomfortably close to the North West Cape. The Remarks are interesting: THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 36, BUT CONTINUE TO DIVERGE AFTERWARDS. NOGAPS AND THE UKMET MODEL ARE THE LEFT OUTLIERS WHILE GFDN AND ECMWF ARE THE RIGHT OUTLIERS. THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK IS IN THE MIDDLE THE MODEL ENVELOPE AND IS VERY CLOSE TO CONSENSUS. DUE TO THE CONTINUED SPREAD IN DYNAMIC GUIDANCE AFTER TAU 48, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted January 10, 2013 Author Share Posted January 10, 2013 Re: Australia's North West Cape... It's a spike of land without much except a small town, Exmouth (pop. ~2K), and a dual-use airport/AFB, Learmonth. In 1999, Cyclone Vance made landfall in the Exmouth Gulf as a Cat 4 SS. The Learmonth Meteorological Office recorded an official gust to 146 kt, and Exmouth was devastated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted January 10, 2013 Author Share Posted January 10, 2013 It's weird how we keep seeing these extremely convective cyclones in the S Hemisphere this season, whereas in the NATL, the cyclones really seemed to struggle to produce cold cloud tops: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 -80ºC cloud tops aren't that infrequent in the NW Pac either. I've have noticed that before and wondered why few Atlantic cyclones don't look as good on IR as Pacific storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aslkahuna Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 I'm a bit surprised that they carry the system all of the way through the upwelling zone off the west coast of Australia to become ET rather than a RL. Steve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted January 11, 2013 Author Share Posted January 11, 2013 I'm a bit surprised that they carry the system all of the way through the upwelling zone off the west coast of Australia to become ET rather than a RL. Steve You're talking about the JTWC's forecast? So you think it should just die instead of transitioning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted January 11, 2013 Author Share Posted January 11, 2013 Narelle's latest intensity is 110 kt, and it looks great on MW imagery. It's been moving more SW and will miss the North West Cape by a healthy distance: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 Not buying 110 kts, but whatevs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted January 11, 2013 Author Share Posted January 11, 2013 Not buying 110 kts, but whatevs. Fozziebear. BoM has it at 90 kt (10-min), which is ~102 kt (1-min). Is that more to your liking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 Fozziebear. BoM has it at 90 kt (10-min), which is ~102 kt (1-min). Is that more to your liking? Closer. ADT only has T4.9, and since its an eye scene, I'll take ADT over anything else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted January 11, 2013 Author Share Posted January 11, 2013 The BoM's just upped the intensity to 931/100 kt (10-min), which is ~114 kt (1-min)-- so a Cat 4 SS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aslkahuna Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 You're talking about the JTWC's forecast? So you think it should just die instead of transitioning?It will all depend upon the SST's and shear-earlier they did dissipate it but could be the closer track to land will keep the system away from the coldest water and highest shear-also forward motion will be a factor. Stve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoastLow Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 Gee, I called this one well, lol. I saw the TV news tonight and there was a definite eye on visible satellite images. This is one healthy storm. If it continues it's W/SW motion it could potentially be pushed back towards the coast by the next approaching frontal system or if the heat over the continent rapidly dies off. This could be a good system for the WA coast, as when it dies, the remnants will drift over the continent and help with their drought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted January 12, 2013 Author Share Posted January 12, 2013 It will all depend upon the SST's and shear-earlier they did dissipate it but could be the closer track to land will keep the system away from the coldest water and highest shear-also forward motion will be a factor. Stve OK, gotcha. It seems like the cyclone has moved further W than expected, so that I guess that means it'll go over the colder water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted January 12, 2013 Author Share Posted January 12, 2013 Gee, I called this one well, lol. I saw the TV news tonight and there was a definite eye on visible satellite images. This is one healthy storm. If it continues it's W/SW motion it could potentially be pushed back towards the coast by the next approaching frontal system or if the heat over the continent rapidly dies off. This could be a good system for the WA coast, as when it dies, the remnants will drift over the continent and help with their drought. Yeah, seems like the heat and drought conditions have been crazy in Australia this year! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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