HurricaneJosh Posted December 13, 2012 Author Share Posted December 13, 2012 Evan's 9-n-mi eye is centered between Upolu and American Samoa with winds of 80 kt, and imagery suggests it continues to strengthen: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted December 13, 2012 Author Share Posted December 13, 2012 Evan's eye moved along the S coast of the Samoan Island of Upolu, causing an apparently high, damaging surge in the capital, Apia: http://www.stuff.co....lone-hits-Samoa Here's an IR loop of the cyclone's center meandering and reforming over the Samoan Islands, as well as some MV imagery showing a well-defined center: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted December 13, 2012 Author Share Posted December 13, 2012 The JTWC's brand-new warning has the center just off the NE coast of Upolu, maybe 20 n mi E of Apia, still with winds of 80 kt. The forecast brings the cyclone WSW of the next few days, impacting Fiji as a borderline Cat 2/3 storm in the 3-5-day range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Few people probably know this but the NWS has an office in Pago Pago, here is their website: http://www.prh.noaa.gov/samoa/?ewwa AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR AMERICAN SAMOA AND INDEPENDENT SAMOA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PAGO PAGO AS 444 PM SST WED DEC 12 2012 .SHORT TERM... .TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...TROPICAL CYCLONE EVAN (04F) WAS CENTERED NEAR 14.0S 171.5W OR ABOUT 60 NM WEST OF PAGO PAGO...MOVING EAST 6 KT. TC EVAN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE CLOSER TO NEAR TUTUILA ON THURSDAY MORNING AS IT USHER HURRICANE FORCE WINDS UP TO 75 TO 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT BEFORE THURSDAY NOON. THE EYE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE EVAN HAS SLIDED ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF UPOLU NEAR TAFITOALA AND LALOMANU VILLAGES. HEAVY RAINFALL AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND ACROSS UPOLU AND TUTUILA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...SEVERE WEATHER WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Now this qualifies as being a bad time to be in these zones: ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR AMERICAN SAMOA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PAGO PAGO AS 947 PM SST WED DEC 12 2012 ASZ001>003-131615- TUTUILA-AUNUU-MANUA-SWAINS- 947 PM SST WED DEC 12 2012 ...HURRICANE WARNING IN EFFECT... ...A HIGH SURF WARNING IN EFFECT... ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT... .REST OF TONIGHT...OCCASIONAL SHOWERS...LOCALLY HEAVY AT TIMES. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 70S. NORTHWEST WINDS 45 TO 60 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 70 MPH INCREASING TO 60 TO 70 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 85 MPH OVERNIGHT. .THURSDAY...HEAVY RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 75 TO 95 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 120 MPH INCREASING TO 85 TO 110 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 130 MPH BEFORE NOON. .THURSDAY NIGHT...HEAVY RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 70S. NORTHWEST WINDS 75 TO 85 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 95 MPH. .FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...RAIN. LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS AT TIMES. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS NEAR 80. LOWS IN THE UPPER 70S. NORTHWEST WINDS 60 TO 70 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 80 MPH. .SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...SCATTERED SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. LOWS IN THE UPPER 70S. NORTHWEST WINDS 40 TO 50 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH. .SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. LOWS IN THE UPPER 70S. NORTHWEST WINDS 30 TO 40 MPH. .MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SCATTERED. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. LOWS IN THE UPPER 70S. NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted December 13, 2012 Author Share Posted December 13, 2012 Great find, tmagan. I didn't know there was a NWS Office there. They should get some great obs as the cyclone moves closer. Cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 http://www.hawaiinew...-american-samoa http://www.hawaiinew...?widgetid=69216 http://www.goes.noaa.gov/sohemi/sohemiloops/shsamoa.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted December 13, 2012 Author Share Posted December 13, 2012 http://www.hawaiinew...-american-samoa http://www.hawaiinew...?widgetid=69216 http://www.goes.noaa...ps/shsamoa.html Cool loop. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted December 13, 2012 Author Share Posted December 13, 2012 The cyclone has essentially stalled out between the Samoan Islands as it's strengthened. Winds are now up to 100 kt, and additional strengthening is expected before the center nudges W and hits the other big island, Savai'i. Fortunately, that island is less populated, although I notice when zooming in on Google Maps that there are some settlements or resorts: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted December 14, 2012 Author Share Posted December 14, 2012 Cyclone Evan has nudged N, so the core is now clear of the Samoan Islands. Winds are still 100 kt. The JTWC forecast is quite grim for a small French island territory called Wallis and Futuna, bringing the center very close the capital city of Mata-Utu with winds of 110 kt (the 15/12Z position): Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Few people probably know this but the NWS has an office in Pago Pago, here is their website: http://www.prh.noaa.gov/samoa/?ewwa AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR AMERICAN SAMOA AND INDEPENDENT SAMOA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PAGO PAGO AS 444 PM SST WED DEC 12 2012 .SHORT TERM... .TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...TROPICAL CYCLONE EVAN (04F) WAS CENTERED NEAR 14.0S 171.5W OR ABOUT 60 NM WEST OF PAGO PAGO...MOVING EAST 6 KT. TC EVAN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE CLOSER TO NEAR TUTUILA ON THURSDAY MORNING AS IT USHER HURRICANE FORCE WINDS UP TO 75 TO 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT BEFORE THURSDAY NOON. THE EYE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE EVAN HAS SLIDED ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF UPOLU NEAR TAFITOALA AND LALOMANU VILLAGES. HEAVY RAINFALL AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND ACROSS UPOLU AND TUTUILA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...SEVERE WEATHER WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. Slided LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 I don't know why I didn't see this thread earlier... oops. About a 12-14 mi eye near on the 12th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted December 14, 2012 Author Share Posted December 14, 2012 The latest JTWC forecast brings the center of a strengthening, 110-kt cyclone almost directly over Wallis and Futuna's capital city of Mata-Utu (pop. ~1,200) between 24 and 36 hr. That would be devastating to that small community if it happens: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted December 15, 2012 Author Share Posted December 15, 2012 The latest MW imagery has the eye of Cyclone Evan passing almost directly over the tiny island of Wallis. The latest JTWC intensity is 956 mb/90 kt. Not doubt, the capital town of Mata-Utu is getting thrashed: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted December 15, 2012 Author Share Posted December 15, 2012 Another cool shot of Evan's eye reaching Wallis Island: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted December 15, 2012 Author Share Posted December 15, 2012 Latest MW shows the inner eyewall passing over the island of Futuna (pop. ~4,200). On this trajectory, the cyclone's core is going to pass very close to Fiji tomorrow: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted December 15, 2012 Author Share Posted December 15, 2012 A signature trait of Evan has been a large CDO. While it's not the most beautiful IR presentation I've ever seen, that huge area of extremely cold cloud tops is pretty impressive. It's in stark contrast to the generally tepid convection (yellows and oranges) we were looking at all season in the NATL: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted December 15, 2012 Author Share Posted December 15, 2012 P.S. The JTWC's 2100Z position is 13.7S 178.3W, which doesn't make sense to me, as the 17Z MW image from several hours earlier (above) clearly shows the center well SE of that point (at 14.0S 178.0W). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted December 16, 2012 Author Share Posted December 16, 2012 Evan is now approaching Fiji with winds of 105 kt-- and strengthening. Both the JTWC and the Fiji Met Service keep the core off the main island of Viti Levu (pop. ~600K)-- however, it's probably going to rake the offshore islands (Yasawa and Mamanuca Group). Radar looks pretty hawt: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted December 16, 2012 Author Share Posted December 16, 2012 The core is going to miss the main island, it looks like-- but, boy, those offshore islands are gettin' raked. The image is somewhat attenuated-- I don't think there's actually any erosion of the SW eyewall: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted December 16, 2012 Author Share Posted December 16, 2012 The eye is passing just off the W tip of Fiji's second-largest island, Vanua Levu (pop. ~130K). The Fiji Met Service has the center turning S and passing just offshore of the main island as a major hurricane-- which means the island will be on the stronger (left) side. We should get some good obs out of Nadi, where the airport is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted December 16, 2012 Author Share Posted December 16, 2012 Latest JTWC package has it as a Cat 4 (115 kt), and they bring it very close to Nadi. So, if the forecast holds, that airport should be in the stronger eyewall of a Cat 3/4. From the text portion of the package: ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (IR) SHOWS AN INTENSE SYSTEM WITH DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND A RAGGED 7NM EYE. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE SEEN IN THE IR, POSITIONING FIXES FROM PGTW, KNES AND PHFO, AND RADAR IMAGERY FROM FIJI WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INTENSITY HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE, WITH CONGRUENT DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES NOW INDICATING 113 KNOTS FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted December 16, 2012 Author Share Posted December 16, 2012 It's going to pass awful close-- especially since the IR loop seems to be showing a jog S: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 Wow that looks really good.. Aside from Nadi Airport are there any other obs there?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted December 16, 2012 Author Share Posted December 16, 2012 Wow that looks really good.. Aside from Nadi Airport are there any other obs there?? Good question-- I'm not sure. I know there's at least one other airport, on the SE side of the island-- but I think Nadi should get much stronger winds. The island is surprisingly populated-- about 600K people-- so there should be other stations, I would think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted December 16, 2012 Author Share Posted December 16, 2012 The cyclone looks spectacular on IR. I believe the degradation in the radar presentation is just attenuation: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted December 16, 2012 Author Share Posted December 16, 2012 Latest IR loop suggests the center is going to come ashore on the N coast of Fiji's main island: http://www.ssd.noaa....-avn-short.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted December 16, 2012 Author Share Posted December 16, 2012 Nothing too crazy at NAN just yet-- 17 kt and 986 mb. Winds described as "gusty". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 Yeah that was interesting.. Hopefully we get some good footage from the islands... I saw some from Samoa but they werent that strong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted December 16, 2012 Author Share Posted December 16, 2012 Yeah that was interesting.. Hopefully we get some good footage from the islands... I saw some from Samoa but they werent that strong Yeah, none of the Samoa video was that amazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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