HurricaneJosh Posted March 4, 2013 Author Share Posted March 4, 2013 I-Cyclone almost owes it to its Australian fanbase to intercept a storm this year. I sometimes watch old I-Cyclone videos in the off season, but a new Southern Hemisphere intercept... Ha ha, I do kind of feel that way. If something good comes up now, I'll chase it. I'm coming off a crazy period at work and have more flexibility now. Plus, I just really want to have a S-Hemisphere system under my belt. Thanks for watching iCyclone videos on the off-season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted March 4, 2013 Author Share Posted March 4, 2013 P.S. It's iCyclone-- no dash or anything. Sleeker and easier to type. (Like iPad, iPod, etc. ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 P.S. It's iCyclone-- no dash or anything. Sleeker and easier to type. (Like iPad, iPod, etc. )lol. Always about the branding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted March 5, 2013 Author Share Posted March 5, 2013 lol. Always about the branding You got it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Just watering. Sandra might affect QLD in 7-10, but obviously not certain and could be during an ET event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted March 6, 2013 Author Share Posted March 6, 2013 Just watering. Sandra might affect QLD in 7-10, but obviously not certain and could be during an ET event. OK, I've been in election craziness in L.A. for the last 24 hr. What's the scoop? Basically, what's the chance of a hurricane-strength cyclone hitting QLD? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 OK, I've been in election craziness in L.A. for the last 24 hr. What's the scoop? Basically, what's the chance of a hurricane-strength cyclone hitting QLD? 20-25%? Not sure if it would be Irene-like or Hugo-like though (obviously) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted March 6, 2013 Author Share Posted March 6, 2013 20-25%? Not sure if it would be Irene-like or Hugo-like though (obviously) OK, thx. So, while you don't expect it, there is a decent chance of a legit, decent, tropical impact? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 OK, thx. So, while you don't expect it, there is a decent chance of a legit, decent, tropical impact? Yeah. I mean, the landfall scenario could bring it in as far north as Gladstone. Or it could be south of Brisbane. Or it could go out to sea entirely. And it's still a week away cause it has to meander in the Coral Sea through the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted March 6, 2013 Author Share Posted March 6, 2013 Yeah. I mean, the landfall scenario could bring it in as far north as Gladstone. Or it could be south of Brisbane. Or it could go out to sea entirely. And it's still a week away cause it has to meander in the Coral Sea through the weekend. D*mn. Haven't looked at the modeling. Is it one o' them "squashed-spider" deals? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 D*mn. Haven't looked at the modeling. Is it one o' them "squashed-spider" deals? Kinda, but not like Debby was. The general consensus is drift eastward, then turn back to the southwest over the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted March 6, 2013 Author Share Posted March 6, 2013 Kinda, but not like Debby was. The general consensus is drift eastward, then turn back to the southwest over the weekend. K, thx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted March 7, 2013 Author Share Posted March 7, 2013 The BoM has initiated advices on 92P. They make it a significant cyclone pretty fast. Re: long-term track, it's a bit of a tossup. The Euro keeps it way offshore, the GFS eventually pushes it into Queensland. Let's watch it, I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Re: long-term track, it's a bit of a tossup. The Euro keeps it way offshore, the GFS eventually pushes it into Queensland. Let's watch it, I guess. Pretty much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted March 7, 2013 Author Share Posted March 7, 2013 Pretty much. Thx. Nice to get da bendy-mod stamp of approval. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Tis is semi-OT and borderline political, but even though he isn't "the" Kevin James, I would have voted for him. Not him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 REMARKS: DT=2.0, based on curved band 0.3 to 0.4 wrap. MET is 3.0, PAT is 2.5. Final T based on PAT. Movement over the last 12 hours has been northeast, although some uncertainty exists in the current position. Over the next 24 to 48 hours movement is expected to be towards the east due to the easterly propagation of the low level monsoon surge and an increase in weak upper level ridging to the west of the system. Currently the system sits in a low shear environment with shear over the system of the order of 10 to 15 knots. Copyright Commonwealth of Australia Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted March 7, 2013 Author Share Posted March 7, 2013 Cyclone Sandra has been named. Both the JTWC and BoM take it E, then SE, suggesting a possible threat to New Caledonia in a few days. (The Euro suggests this threat is very real.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted March 8, 2013 Author Share Posted March 8, 2013 The GFS is now keeping Sandra well off Queensland, also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted March 8, 2013 Author Share Posted March 8, 2013 The model trends make a Queensland impact less and less likely with Cyclone Sandra. Looks like it's a pretty-sure fish-- although I guess I shouldn't say that, since it's a real threat to New Caledonia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted March 9, 2013 Share Posted March 9, 2013 The model trends make a Queensland impact less and less likely with Cyclone Sandra. Looks like it's a pretty-sure fish-- although I guess I shouldn't say that, since it's a real threat to New Caledonia. I miss Rusty already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted March 9, 2013 Author Share Posted March 9, 2013 I miss Rusty already. Yeah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted March 9, 2013 Author Share Posted March 9, 2013 Sandra is a Cat 1 on our scale and a Severe TC (Cat 3) on the Oz scale. Both the JTWC and BoM have it missing New Caledonia to the W. Whatevz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted March 10, 2013 Author Share Posted March 10, 2013 Just about ready to pack it in with the Oz season. March is their "October" and there's nothing interesting on the GFS or Euro ten days out. (Yeah, Monica happened in April, but that was highly anomalous.) Stick a fork in it, baby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted March 11, 2013 Author Share Posted March 11, 2013 Oh, the JTWC has Fishcake Sandra at 130 kt right now-- however, they have it weakening pretty quickly from this point on, so even if it hits New Caledonia, it won't be what it is now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted March 11, 2013 Share Posted March 11, 2013 Oh, the JTWC has Fishcake Sandra at 130 kt right now-- however, they have it weakening pretty quickly from this point on, so even if it hits New Caledonia, it won't be what it is now. They were way overestimating the intensity. SATCON was nowhere near that high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted March 11, 2013 Author Share Posted March 11, 2013 They were way overestimating the intensity. SATCON was nowhere near that high. lolz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted March 11, 2013 Share Posted March 11, 2013 Just in case the animated gif ever comes back, look how fast it goes from impressive to nothing, poor Sheila. (Yes, I know, Sandy...) The animated gif could be making a comeback... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted March 11, 2013 Author Share Posted March 11, 2013 You mean Sandra. It still looks pretty decent in the last frame-- there's still a clear center. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted March 12, 2013 Share Posted March 12, 2013 You mean Sandra. It still looks pretty decent in the last frame-- there's still a clear center. Still a JTWC typhoon and while just eyeball, I'd think 'tropical storm' (ADT says still a typhoon, but weakening flag is on). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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