shaggy Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 I don't usually follow storms in this part of the world but Rusty is looking pretty good today. I imagine the coastline is taking a beating with him stalled just offshore like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 26, 2013 Author Share Posted February 26, 2013 ADT is T5.3 = 97 kts and it looks like the algorithm missed the center. I'd bet we have a major on our hands right now. Yeah, it looks like a 100-kt system to me, now. That eye really shrunk overnight. He's pullled his arms in and is spinning like a top now. Much faster rotation since last night, and its not moving.... Yep-- the contraction is particularly visible one the radar. It's just a much tighter system now. I don't usually follow storms in this part of the world but Rusty is looking pretty good today. I imagine the coastline is taking a beating with him stalled just offshore like that. Omg, hi, shaggy. Nice to see you. The nearest town, Port Hedland, has had sustained gales for over 24 hr now! It's becoming an endurance test for them, I'm sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 26, 2013 Author Share Posted February 26, 2013 The JTWC's new warning has it up to 95 kt now, and they keep it steady at that intensity through landfall in the desolate area E of Port Hedland between 12 and 24 hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 wobble watch, it could almost be creeping East or Northeast, The eyes are not well calibrated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 26, 2013 Author Share Posted February 26, 2013 wobble watch, it could almost be creeping East or Northeast, The eyes are not well calibrated. Yeah, it's definitely wobbling-- it almost looks to be pulling away from the shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 26, 2013 Author Share Posted February 26, 2013 The BoM has upgraded Rusty to a Cat 4 on their scale, with winds of 90 kt (10-min). So that makes it a major on our scale. That sounds about right. The core looks to come ashore in the desolate area E of Hedland, near De Grey. There's very little going on there. I have a chaser friend who's in Hedland now, and he said getting E on the highway is going to be tricky, since they're under Red Alert, meaning no one's supposed to be out driving-- and apparently this is strictly enforced with harsh fines. Grrrrr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 Latest video update from Oz Cyclone Chasers- who think Pardoo Station may be in greater danger than Pt. Hedland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 Steve Brooks on Australian TV (near the end). http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-02-26/red-alert-as-cyclone-rusty-intensifies/4541780/?site=northwestwa&ref=m21 From Pilbara Weather Facebook, just before upgrade from yellow to red alert. Also from Pilbara Weather Facebook, more bendy palms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 27, 2013 Author Share Posted February 27, 2013 Latest video update from Oz Cyclone Chasers- who think Pardoo Station may be in greater danger than Pt. Hedland. Port Hedland I think is going to get missed, although I won't say that on my Facebook page-- I have a lot of new Hedlander fans and I don't want to say anything that might even remotely influence the actions of people in the threatened area. The settlement at De Grey is going to get a direct hit, but there's almost nothing there. Pardoo is nothing more than a settlement, either-- it's not a town or anything. Steve Brooks on Australian TV (near the end). From Pilbara Weather Facebook, just before upgrade from yellow to red alert. Also from Pilbara Weather Facebook, more bendy palms Good find. Steve is the one I was going to chase with, if I went. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 27, 2013 Author Share Posted February 27, 2013 There's a been a a noticeable degradation of the IR and radar presentations over the last couple of hours. Kinda looks like crap right now: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 Eye stll looks decent on radar, but Josh is right, satellite looks meh. Maybe drifting just a touch to the South now looking at radar, but I wouldn't bet money on it. Pt Hedland- with a couple of short breaks with winds barely below gale force, been about a day and a half of continuous gales. 64 knot gust yesterday, 26 Feb, 8:00 am WST Pt Hedland obs, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 27, 2013 Author Share Posted February 27, 2013 Eye stll looks decent on radar, but Josh is right, satellite looks meh. Maybe drifting just a touch to the South now looking at radar, but I wouldn't bet money on it. Pt Hedland- with a couple of short breaks with winds barely below gale force, been about a day and a half of continuous gales. 64 knot gust yesterday, 26 Feb, 8:00 am WST Pt Hedland obs, The PHE obs have been mind-numbingly consistent: hours and hours and hours of winds 40-41 kt gusting to around 50. And the pressure's been hovering between 984 and 988 mb-- just kinda up and down. If I were in PHE to chase this, I'd be out of my mind by now. By the way... I chatted with Steve, who's in South Hedland right now. There's no way they're going to get to Pardoo, because the De Grey River overflowed onto the highway-- so they're kinda f*cked from a chase perspective. Grrrrr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 27, 2013 Author Share Posted February 27, 2013 Recent radar loops suggest the eye is now pushing SE, toward the coast. Ground Zero: Pardoo Roadhouse: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 27, 2013 Author Share Posted February 27, 2013 The cyclone is making landfall near Pardoo Roadhouse-- at an agonizingly slow speed: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 27, 2013 Author Share Posted February 27, 2013 By the way, the IR presentation is craptastic: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 27, 2013 Author Share Posted February 27, 2013 OK, hardcore rules like this seriously kill my interest in trying to chase cyclones in the Pilbara: http://www.karrathases.org.au/index.php/be-prepared/58-stay-indoors-during-a-red-alert Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 27, 2013 Author Share Posted February 27, 2013 The cyclone is just about to make landfall, and the BoM has downgraded it to Cat 3 (i.e., a Cat 2 on our scale): Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 27, 2013 Author Share Posted February 27, 2013 Pardoo entering the eye; De Grey getting raked; Hedland getting lucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 27, 2013 Author Share Posted February 27, 2013 Official landfall has occurred. The core structure really fell apart as the center pushed ashore. The first image is from the moment of official landfall-- the next one from 20 minutes later-- and you can see it rapidly unraveling. It already looks like mush. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 27, 2013 Author Share Posted February 27, 2013 By the way, Rusty's landfall intensity (as per the final Technical Bulletin just before landfall) was 952 mb/80 kt (10-min), which is ~90 kt (1-min)-- or, a Cat 2 on the USA scale. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 OK, hardcore rules like this seriously kill my interest in trying to chase cyclones in the Pilbara: http://www.karrathases.org.au/index.php/be-prepared/58-stay-indoors-during-a-red-alert Do they issue press passes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 27, 2013 Author Share Posted February 27, 2013 Do they issue press passes? Apparently it even applies to press, although I'm checking on this. What a serious buzzkill. Omg. No way I'm gonna chase somewhere if I can't adjust my position in the final 24 hr. Makes zero sense if your priority is punching the core. I mean, in this instance, the dudes in Hedland were just stuck there while Pardoo got raked. (Part of it was highway flooding, but basically, they couldn't leave Hedland-- the highway was blocked just E of the Airport.) Queensland is not so strict, by the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 By the way, Rusty's landfall intensity (as per the final Technical Bulletin just before landfall) was 952 mb/80 kt (10-min), which is ~90 kt (1-min)-- or, a Cat 2 on the USA scale. Wow, almost a clone of Ike's landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 27, 2013 Author Share Posted February 27, 2013 Wow, almost a clone of Ike's landfall. Yeah. But the JTWC had it at 80 kt (1-min). At the end of the day, it really fizzled and was not impressive as it came ashore. Not sure what happened there in the end. Maybe upwelling finally got it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 Yeah. But the JTWC has it at 80 kt (1-min). At the end of the day, it really fizzled and was not impressive as it came ashore. Not sure what happened there in the end. Maybe upwelling finally got it? Slow speed and land are usually never a good combo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 Slow speed and land are usually never a good combo. Especially becuase that part of Australia is all either desert or semiarid. Much worse surface fluxes than, say, a storm stalled off the Everglades or Louisiana bayou. Friction is a problem either way, of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 28, 2013 Author Share Posted February 28, 2013 Especially becuase that part of Australia is all either desert or semiarid. Much worse surface fluxes than, say, a storm stalled off the Everglades or Louisiana bayou. Friction is a problem either way, of course. Yeah, but on the other hand, this area is also really flat and smooth, without lots of buildings or trees. A BoM dude mentioned to me that wind data from PHE are almost like over-water data because there's so little friction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Yeah, but on the other hand, this area is also really flat and smooth, without lots of buildings or trees. A BoM dude mentioned to me that wind data from PHE are almost like over-water data because there's so little friction. Maybe so, but my point was that it's not surprising that Rusty looked so poor on IR given the cast that the storm was rotting halfway over very dry land for 24 h. Friction kills storms by throwing them out of gradient wind balance. As the F term becomes too large, air parcels are deflected towards the center of the cyclone and the pressure rises / eye fills in. A lack of a warm / moist sea surface below the storm means a drier boundary layer, higher LCLs, less latent heat release in the secondary circulation, and weaker convection. Or as you said, a "craptastic" look on satellite. edit: of course unfavorable environmental factors can also lead to a poor look on satellite, just like an extremely favorable environment can help overcome partial land interaction. But I think this was a case where the storm failed to reach its full potential just because it stalled too close to land. 50 mi further north, and perhaps we would have seen something more significant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted March 4, 2013 Author Share Posted March 4, 2013 The Euro and the GFS are both advertising a significant cyclone in the Coral Sea in the 7-10-day range. The Euro keeps it well offshore, whereas the GFS brings it toward Queensland as it weakens. Something to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 The Euro and the GFS are both advertising a significant cyclone in the Coral Sea in the 7-10-day range. The Euro keeps it well offshore, whereas the GFS brings it toward Queensland as it weakens. Something to watch. I-Cyclone almost owes it to its Australian fanbase to intercept a storm this year. I sometimes watch old I-Cyclone videos in the off season, but a new Southern Hemisphere intercept... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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