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Aussie (& S-Hemisphere) Cyclone Action 2012-2013


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Definitely the best structure we've seen thus far, although were going to want to see that core contract a bit more if we are to expect Rusty to maintain decent structure as it begins to interact with land. 

 

Wow-- that's a great MW presentation-- better than I would have expected.  I'm not blown away by the IR.  It reminds me of Ike-- so big and loose it can't tighten up.

 

That eye is enormous-- which means the worst conditions will come ashore waaaaaaay in advance of the actual landfall.

 

post-19-0-99085400-1361825842_thumb.jpg

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I have to say, I'm not wowed by the IR presentation. The core looks open to the SW, and the whole thing is so broad I have trouble envisioning it tightening up in the next 24 hr before landfall.  Reminds me of Ike and Isaac:

 

attachicon.gifhttp://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php?app=core&module=attach&section=attach&attach_rel_module=post&attach_id=91553'>avn0-lalo (3).jpg

Yep. But if models were to be believed, RI wasn't to start until after 6z

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Cyclone Rusty has now started moving a shade W of S-- putting it on a collision course with Port Hedland.  

 

The BoM shows it as a Cat 4 (on their scale) near the time of landfall, which is a Cat 3 on ours.  It looks pretty good on the visible:

 

 

Surprisingly good on visible. 

 

Almost looks like a predecessor rain event (PRE) covering half the continent, although the limited radar coverage available (e.g. Giles) suggests any precip occuring with that massive cloud shield is relatively light.  That ECMWF simulated satellite posted a couple days ago verified quite nicely. 

 

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Surprisingly good on visible. 

 

Agreed-- the visible looks good.  The IR is improving.  It looks sooooo much like Ike as it approached the TX coast-- it's really weird.

 

Radar shows that the eye has been slowly contracting-- a sign it's strengthening.  PHE is in a moat right now-- but they'll get raked in a few hours as that strong inner band edges over them.  The obs from PHE have been mind-numbingly consistent:  basically 12 solid hours of sustained winds around 40-45 kt with gusts around 50-60 kt.

 

post-19-0-19103500-1361857283_thumb.jpg

 

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She's pretty. Not moving very fast at all. Tightening a bit maybe?

 

Cool loop-- thank you!

 

I thought it was tightening, but I notice that the new JTWC warning has lowered the initial intensity (to 65 kt), and now they don't take it above 80 kt before landfall.  The BoM, meanwhile, continues to take it up to Cat 3 (on the USA scale) prior to landfall.

 

Major disconnect between the agencies.  Interestin'.

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The passing trough is ripping the monsoonal inflow in the eastern quadrants apart and the hot air off the continent is becoming entrained in the south west quadrant. The storm is about to come apart. Shame, another 24 hours offshore and it coulda been a contender.

There will be some serious damage from rain, all those outlying townships you see are basically mines/mining towns. All open cut or strip/pit mines, so lots of mud and flooding will occur. You have to understand, outside large towns and major highways, all roads and even many runways in this region are just dirt and it's nasty clay rich dirt too.

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The pressure at PHE has gone up more than 2 mb in the last couple of hours.  It's more than a wobble-- it's a definite rise.  And the radar suggests the center might be drifting slightly away from the coast.

Rusty stalling and even drifting away from the coast has been in the Euro since Sunday (I know you don't get the 6-hrly Euro time steps that I do).

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