icebreaker5221 Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Definitely the best structure we've seen thus far, although were going to want to see that core contract a bit more if we are to expect Rusty to maintain decent structure as it begins to interact with land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 25, 2013 Author Share Posted February 25, 2013 Definitely the best structure we've seen thus far, although were going to want to see that core contract a bit more if we are to expect Rusty to maintain decent structure as it begins to interact with land. Wow-- that's a great MW presentation-- better than I would have expected. I'm not blown away by the IR. It reminds me of Ike-- so big and loose it can't tighten up. That eye is enormous-- which means the worst conditions will come ashore waaaaaaay in advance of the actual landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 25, 2013 Author Share Posted February 25, 2013 MW image shows the eyewall is onshore, even though landfall is 24 hr or more away. Port Hedland is having sustained winds over 40 kt, with gusts just under hurricane force: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 26, 2013 Author Share Posted February 26, 2013 PHE is currently having 42 kt gusting to 64. They seem to be in a sort of moat. I imagine these winds will increase a bit as that inner band reaches the town: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 26, 2013 Author Share Posted February 26, 2013 I have to say, I'm not wowed by the IR presentation. The core looks open to the SW, and the whole thing is so broad I have trouble envisioning it tightening up in the next 24 hr before landfall. Reminds me of Ike and Isaac: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 26, 2013 Author Share Posted February 26, 2013 Latest BoM advice brings the center ashore very close to Port Hedland as a Cat 3 (on the USA scale): Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 I have to say, I'm not wowed by the IR presentation. The core looks open to the SW, and the whole thing is so broad I have trouble envisioning it tightening up in the next 24 hr before landfall. Reminds me of Ike and Isaac: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php?app=core&module=attach§ion=attach&attach_rel_module=post&attach_id=91553'>avn0-lalo (3).jpg Yep. But if models were to be believed, RI wasn't to start until after 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 26, 2013 Author Share Posted February 26, 2013 Yep. But if models were to be believed, RI wasn't to start until after 6z OK, gotcha. Well, let's see. Radar suggest the eye might be contracting a tad-- and the BoM discussion notes this as well. This could be a sign of intensification: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 26, 2013 Author Share Posted February 26, 2013 Cyclone Rusty has now started moving a shade W of S-- putting it on a collision course with Port Hedland. The BoM shows it as a Cat 4 (on their scale) near the time of landfall, which is a Cat 3 on ours. It looks pretty good on the visible: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 Cyclone Rusty has now started moving a shade W of S-- putting it on a collision course with Port Hedland. The BoM shows it as a Cat 4 (on their scale) near the time of landfall, which is a Cat 3 on ours. It looks pretty good on the visible: Surprisingly good on visible. Almost looks like a predecessor rain event (PRE) covering half the continent, although the limited radar coverage available (e.g. Giles) suggests any precip occuring with that massive cloud shield is relatively light. That ECMWF simulated satellite posted a couple days ago verified quite nicely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 Here was the 96 h ECMWF forecast for comparison, courtesy superstorm ECM has 130knots @ 944mb by 96 hours ScreenHunter_16 Feb. 22 15.59.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 26, 2013 Author Share Posted February 26, 2013 Surprisingly good on visible. Agreed-- the visible looks good. The IR is improving. It looks sooooo much like Ike as it approached the TX coast-- it's really weird. Radar shows that the eye has been slowly contracting-- a sign it's strengthening. PHE is in a moat right now-- but they'll get raked in a few hours as that strong inner band edges over them. The obs from PHE have been mind-numbingly consistent: basically 12 solid hours of sustained winds around 40-45 kt with gusts around 50-60 kt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 She's pretty. Not moving very fast at all. Tightening a bit maybe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 26, 2013 Author Share Posted February 26, 2013 She's pretty. Not moving very fast at all. Tightening a bit maybe? Cool loop-- thank you! I thought it was tightening, but I notice that the new JTWC warning has lowered the initial intensity (to 65 kt), and now they don't take it above 80 kt before landfall. The BoM, meanwhile, continues to take it up to Cat 3 (on the USA scale) prior to landfall. Major disconnect between the agencies. Interestin'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 26, 2013 Author Share Posted February 26, 2013 Also, the agencies are analyzing the size very differently. BoM has R64 = 40 nmi, R34 = 140 nmi. JTWC has a much smaller cyclone: R64 = 25 nmi, R34 = 90 nmi. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 26, 2013 Author Share Posted February 26, 2013 Gettin' a little weird-lookin'. What is up with that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 26, 2013 Author Share Posted February 26, 2013 The pressure at PHE has dropped a mere 0.5 mb in the last 3 hr. Is this thing even moving?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 Rusty might tighten up right as it makes landfall due to frictional effects. On the other hand, it is going to be fighting upwelling, I would imagine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 26, 2013 Author Share Posted February 26, 2013 Rusty might tighten up right as it makes landfall due to frictional effects. On the other hand, it is going to be fighting upwelling, I would imagine. The IR presentation looks to be deteriorating, in my opinion. I certainly don't think it's strengthening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 26, 2013 Author Share Posted February 26, 2013 The pressure at PHE has gone up more than 2 mb in the last couple of hours. It's more than a wobble-- it's a definite rise. And the radar suggests the center might be drifting slightly away from the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoastLow Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 The passing trough is ripping the monsoonal inflow in the eastern quadrants apart and the hot air off the continent is becoming entrained in the south west quadrant. The storm is about to come apart. Shame, another 24 hours offshore and it coulda been a contender. There will be some serious damage from rain, all those outlying townships you see are basically mines/mining towns. All open cut or strip/pit mines, so lots of mud and flooding will occur. You have to understand, outside large towns and major highways, all roads and even many runways in this region are just dirt and it's nasty clay rich dirt too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 The pressure at PHE has gone up more than 2 mb in the last couple of hours. It's more than a wobble-- it's a definite rise. And the radar suggests the center might be drifting slightly away from the coast. Rusty stalling and even drifting away from the coast has been in the Euro since Sunday (I know you don't get the 6-hrly Euro time steps that I do). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 If Rusty can stay offshore, the latest MW suggests the inner core may be getting better organized... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 All that said, the Euro, which has been the most aggressive model, is a clear outlier in its ensemble distribution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 Rusty might tighten up right as it makes landfall due to frictional effects. On the other hand, it is going to be fighting upwelling, I would imagine. BOM technical discussion said depth of warm water substantial, and they didn't expect large affects from upwelling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 Yea it is clear that Rusty has stalled and it appears its eyewall continues to contract. ECMWF and GFS are projecting landfall in another 12-18 hours as the storm meanders onshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 ADT is up to T5.0 = 90 kts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 26, 2013 Author Share Posted February 26, 2013 Wow, it really improved overnight-- and it looks like the eye has contracted. (It was looking like real crap when I went to bed.) Also looks like it's pulled away from the coast a tad: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 ADT is T5.3 = 97 kts and it looks like the algorithm missed the center. I'd bet we have a major on our hands right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 He's pullled his arms in and is spinning like a top now. Much faster rotation since last night, and its not moving.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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