Ed Lizard Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 Looks likew it is finally getting organized on satellite imagery. Edit to add hotlink, the uploaded animated gif doesn't seem to be animating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 24, 2013 Author Share Posted February 24, 2013 The JTWC now shows a much stronger cyclone-- with winds of 95 kt-- hitting Port Hedland head-on within the next 72 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eyewall2005 Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 This thing is bombing.. TC Rusty.bmp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 24, 2013 Author Share Posted February 24, 2013 Here's the same image in a format people can see without downloading: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sojitodd Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 Might still be a classified system when its inland East of Freemantle. American themed bar there, waitresses in US flag bikinis, Budweiser. At least in 1985. Looks stout at landfall. You sure you mean Fremantle? Isn't that the port for Perth..way down in southwestern OZ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 Wow... Took my eye's off this thing for 12 hours and it's already undergoing bombogenesis. 12z ECMWF brought Rusty up to a whopping 130 knots/918mbs at 60 hours. Seems very reasonable if the trends seen over the past few hours continue. Already at 60 knots/978mbs (Really a fan of the last frame) H. REMARKS...SYSTEM HAS DEVELOPED RAPIDLY OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. TWINHOOKING BANDS APPEAR TO BE FORMING A BANDING TYPE EYE. CONVECTIONMEASURES 9/10 FOR A DT OF 3.5. PT AGREES WHILE THE MET IS 3.0 ON A RAPIDDEVELOPMENT CURVE. FT IS BASED ON DT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 24, 2013 Author Share Posted February 24, 2013 Wow... Took my eye's off this thing for 12 hours and it's already undergoing bombogenesis. 12z ECMWF brought Rusty up to a whopping 130 knots/918mbs at 60 hours. Seems very reasonable if the trends seen over the past few hours continue. Already at 60 knots/978mbs (Really a fan of the last frame) H. REMARKS...SYSTEM HAS DEVELOPED RAPIDLY OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. TWIN HOOKING BANDS APPEAR TO BE FORMING A BANDING TYPE EYE. CONVECTIONMEASURES 9/10 FOR A DT OF 3.5. PT AGREES WHILE THE MET IS 3.0 ON A RAPIDDEVELOPMENT CURVE. FT IS BASED ON DT. Yep-- it's bombing. It's interesting, given that it took so long to get going. Now it's BOOM! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 24, 2013 Author Share Posted February 24, 2013 Latest JTWC forecast brings the cyclone ashore a little further W-- about halfway between the towns of Port Hedland and Karratha-- with winds of 115 kt! Serious sh*t. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 Latest JTWC forecast brings the cyclone ashore a little further W-- about halfway between the towns of Port Hedland and Karratha-- with winds of 115 kt! Serious sh*t. Maybe the criteria for you to chase this is low enough. I'm sure you would go if it became that strong. Hoping someone can get under the landfall area and document the TC decently and without any drama, something that iCyclone does best. This is the only chaser group I know of that has been following this system. http://www.auscyclonechasers.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Rusty is now over the threshold 65 knots/974mbs @ 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 25, 2013 Author Share Posted February 25, 2013 Maybe the criteria for you to chase this is low enough. I'm sure you would go if it became that strong. Hoping someone can get under the landfall area and document the TC decently and without any drama, something that iCyclone does best. This is the only chaser group I know of that has been following this system. http://www.auscyclonechasers.com/ The only reason I'm not chasing it is that I am too busy with my business at this very moment. The modeling made it enticing enough days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 25, 2013 Author Share Posted February 25, 2013 Rusty is now over the threshold 65 knots/974mbs @ 00z Where did you get the 65 kt? I'm still seeing 60 kt on the Navy/NRL site. (Not that it matters-- I'm sure it's going to be a hurricane in the next JTWC warning.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 25, 2013 Author Share Posted February 25, 2013 The BoM track has nudged W (right), and now shows Port Hedland in the crosshairs. This is a pretty big deal, as the town has not been in the inner core of a really powerful cyclone in many decades. Joan 1975 and George 2007-- both Cat 4s on the USA scale-- passed close enough to blast the town with hours of sustained hurricane winds-- but both times, the RMW missed and the town escaped the worst: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 You sure you mean Fremantle? Isn't that the port for Perth..way down in southwestern OZ? If you looked at the Euro map 2 days later, it was still a coherent system much farther South in WA, Freemantle is the port near Perth. Consumed many a Swan and Emu in both towns. Not as strong inland on the current run as the older run. Still looks to get abut a quarter inch of rain to YPPH Friday Edit to Add CIMSS ADT UW - CIMSS ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE ADT-Version 8.1.3 Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm ----- Current Analysis ----- Date : 25 FEB 2013 Time : 003000 UTC Lat : 17:59:11 S Lon : 118:23:39 E CI# /Pressure/ Vmax 3.5 / 984.3mb/ 55.0kt Final T# Adj T# Raw T# 3.5 3.6 3.6 Center Temp : -56.5C Cloud Region Temp : -73.3C Scene Type : EMBEDDED CENTER CLOUD REGION Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION Ocean Basin : INDIAN Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT Weakening Flag : OFF Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs : - Average 34 knot radii : 85km - Environmental MSLP : 1002mb Satellite Viewing Angle : 36.9 degrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Where did you get the 65 kt? I'm still seeing 60 kt on the Navy/NRL site. (Not that it matters-- I'm sure it's going to be a hurricane in the next JTWC warning.) It was on NRL last time I checked. They must have gone back and updated it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eyewall2005 Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Hmm...somethings up? http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_apache/PUBLIC/tc_pages/thumbs/medium/tc13/SHEM/17S.RUSTY/tmi/tmi_85h/1degreeticks/20130224.2338.trmm.x.tmi_85h_1deg.17SRUSTY.60kts-978mb-178S-1187E.40pc.jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 25, 2013 Author Share Posted February 25, 2013 Hmm...somethings up? Adrian, why don't you post the pics rather than links to them? That way, everyone can see them without leaving the thread. Just an idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 25, 2013 Author Share Posted February 25, 2013 OK... The BoM forecast has swung W to come closer to the JTWC solution. Their latest Technical Bulletin puts the cyclone essentially right at Port Hedland (20.2S 118.7E) at hour 60 with an intensity of 940 mb/90 kt (10-min)-- a solid Cat 3 on our scale. Yikes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eyewall2005 Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Adrian, why don't you post the pics rather than links to them? That way, everyone can see them without leaving the thread. Just an idea. Tried to but when i hit symbol to add image screen turns dark and wont let me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Trough bypassing to the south will keep steering currents pretty weak. Euro is a lot slower than the GFS, but both are a significant hit to Port Hedland. Euro with the eye crossing over YPPD, and the GFS dropping >400mm of rain and TS and hurricane conditions for over 3 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 BoM is clearly siding the Euro. The GFS is very close to YPPD at hour 36. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 25, 2013 Author Share Posted February 25, 2013 Trough bypassing to the south will keep steering currents pretty weak. Euro is a lot slower than the GFS, but both are a significant hit to Port Hedland. Euro with the eye crossing over YPPD, and the GFS dropping >400mm of rain and TS and hurricane conditions for over 3 days. Gonna get some yummy data out of PHE. (P.S. Should we call it YPPD or PHE in this thread? We're talkin' about the same place.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Gonna get some yummy data out of PHE. (P.S. Should we call it YPPD or PHE in this thread? We're talkin' about the same place.) Even though PHE (IATA code) sounds more natural, ICAO codes are more relevant for weather purposes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 25, 2013 Author Share Posted February 25, 2013 Even though PHE (IATA code) sounds more natural, ICAO codes are more relevant for weather purposes C'mon. PHE is easier. Less typing. Pleez? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 See, now why can't we have nice things like this in the W-ATL? ................................................................... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 25, 2013 Author Share Posted February 25, 2013 See, now why can't we have nice things like this in the W-ATL? ................................................................... I was thinking exactly that today-- how we haven't seen these large areas of extreme cold cloud tops in a NATL cyclone in a very long time. But the S Hemisphere's been seeing this plenty. Cyclone Evan-- the one that hit all the SPAC islands earlier in the season-- also had wide coverage of extremely deep convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 25, 2013 Author Share Posted February 25, 2013 Cyclone Rusty has reached hurricane strength. The JTWC puts the intensity at 65 kt (1-min), and an eye is clearly visible in IR imagery. The BoM hasn't yet upgraded the cyclone to "Severe" (Cat 3), but that seems likely in the next advice. The BoM track has been shifting a bit, but the very latest brings a strong cyclone ashore very close to Port Hedland in ~48 hr: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 25, 2013 Author Share Posted February 25, 2013 Rusty's very large eye is now within range of the PHE radar: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Cyclone Rusty has reached hurricane strength. The JTWC puts the intensity at 65 kt (1-min), and an eye is clearly visible in IR imagery. The BoM hasn't yet upgraded the cyclone to "Severe" (Cat 3), but that seems likely in the next advice. The BoM track has been shifting a bit, but the very latest brings a strong cyclone ashore very close to Port Hedland in ~48 hr: avn0-lalo (2).jpg IDW60280 (1).gif 100 knots sustained (Australian rules) plus large size and slow movement, I imagine the floods and the wind damage will be severe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 There's one dude who might-- a photographer named Steve Brooks. He asked me to come chase it with him-- to partner up on the effort-- but I am just too busy this week. (Election season here.) The Oz Cyclone Chaser dudes are going to sit it out, as they're Queensland-based and it's not easy for them to get across the continent to the remote corners of the Pilbara. From Perth Weather Live Facebook... Update from what could be ground zero over the next 72 hours. ------ Currently preparing for Rusty to approach the coast, the modelling is still showing a landfall nearly direct with Port Hedland or just to the east, "IF" Rusty does cross to the West of Hedland then the rainfall and storm surge is going to be massive. Those Hedland residents whom are taking this cyclone like just another one, I would be stopping and taking a moment to rethink your ideas. Take the time to organise your emergency plans if things start becoming really bad. Head to the strongest part of your house, normally the bathroom or a hallway, take a table and mattress bunker down, I am up here to document this system but when things become to bad I too will be bunkering down. Please remember power will go down, so I won't be able to update once my phone loses power hence, phone reception may go down as well. Take care all. Steve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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