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Northern Plains Discussion


prinsburg_wx

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How are things shaping up long-term?  I am making a business trip to Fargo 2/24/13-2/27/13.

 

 

Looking like a quiet period coming up for your trip now....   much warmer that it has been   25 to 30 during the day and teens at night.    may not be a lot of sun it appears though. 

 

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?map.x=194&map.y=187&site=fgf&zmx=1&zmy=1

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Surprised none of you northern plains folks have brought up this upcoming northern stream ejection and very long lived frontogenesis event. It is going to be impressive across portion of Nodak into western/central MN.

 

I was holding off until models came into more agreement...been burnt too many times bringing up events too early. Anyway, MPX does have a wsw out for my local area for sun night/mon...6+ they are saying.

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I'm with prinsburg, the model spread before today was outrageous with the GEM the only model really bringing snows this far north. The models have really come in line today and it looks like the GEM was onto something after all. A quick glance of this morning's runs show a general .5-1" QPF up around this way. This would make it the largest storm over at least the last two winters in GFK, so obviously I'm a bit skeptical but at least a couple of inches would be hard to argue against at this point. It'll be a win win for me though, as much as I enjoy a good snow the calander says March now and I'm more than ready for some "warmer" (30's would be nice) weather.

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This one really crept up on me.  I've been so focused on research and school that I only saw a few days ago there was even a chance at accumulating snowfall in the southeast part of the region.  Then I saw the NAM yesterday and was just thinking "NAM, go home you're drunk"... then some of the other models started moving north and now it looks like we have a decent shot at a really nice snowfall in GFK. 

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I would normally be highly skeptical of the NAM and a northerly track, but this is different than most leeside ejections as this is very zonal aloft, and the cold air will tend not dive S through the Rockies...especially given how unimpressive the cold air is to begin with (not deep and not all that cold). The southern stream jet will also tend to form a stronger secondary lee low...which should help reinforce the baroclinic zone a bit farther N.

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I would normally be highly skeptical of the NAM and a northerly track, but this is different than most leeside ejections as this is very zonal aloft, and the cold air will tend not dive S through the Rockies...especially given how unimpressive the cold air is to begin with (not deep and not all that cold). The southern stream jet will also tend to form a stronger secondary lee low...which should help reinforce the baroclinic zone a bit farther N.

 

Looks like all 0z models have shifted north some...12z euro was north with it's run as well.

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Another winter storm event possible late friday thru sunday for w & n MN

 

 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
324 PM CST THU MAR 7 2013

...SIGNIFICANT ICING AND SNOWFALL POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING OVER PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL AND CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...

.AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SHIFTING EAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS
INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
WILL SPREAD A MIX OF RAIN...FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS WESTERN
AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF MINNESOTA. THE PRECIPITATION WILL START
OUT AS A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING...MIX WITH AND CHANGE OVER TO RAIN DURING THE DAY
ON SATURDAY...THEN MIX WITH AND CHANGE OVER TO LIGHT SNOW SATURDAY
EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. ICE ACCUMULATION OF
ONE TENTH TO ONE QUARTER INCH ALONG WITH SNOWFALL TOTALS RANGING
FROM 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. A WINTER STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THOSE ALONG AND
WEST OF A LINE FROM MORA TO ELK RIVER TO HUTCHINSON TO REDWOOD
FALLS.

MNZ041>045-047>051-054>059-064>066-073-080600-
/O.NEW.KMPX.WS.A.0006.130309T0200Z-130310T1200Z/
DOUGLAS-TODD-MORRISON-MILLE LACS-KANABEC-STEVENS-POPE-STEARNS-
BENTON-SHERBURNE-LAC QUI PARLE-SWIFT-CHIPPEWA-KANDIYOHI-MEEKER-
WRIGHT-YELLOW MEDICINE-RENVILLE-MCLEOD-REDWOOD-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALEXANDRIA...LONG PRAIRIE...
LITTLE FALLS...PRINCETON...MORA...MORRIS...GLENWOOD...ST. CLOUD...
FOLEY...ELK RIVER...MADISON...BENSON...MONTEVIDEO...WILLMAR...
LITCHFIELD...MONTICELLO...GRANITE FALLS...OLIVIA...HUTCHINSON...
REDWOOD FALLS
324 PM CST THU MAR 7 2013

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN HAS ISSUED
A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

* TIMING: FREEZING RAIN AND LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP LATE FRIDAY
  EVENING...CONTINUING THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY ON SATURDAY.
  PRECIPITATION WILL MIX WITH AND CHANGE OVER TO RAIN DURING THE
  DAY ON SATURDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL THEN MIX WITH AND CHANGE
  OVER TO LIGHT SNOW SATURDAY EVENING AND CONTINUE AS LIGHT SNOW
  THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

* MAIN IMPACT: POTENTIAL ICE ACCUMULATION OF ONE TENTH TO ONE
  QUARTER INCH OF ICE ALONG WITH SNOW ACCUMULATION OF BETWEEN 3
  AND 6 INCHES
THROUGHOUT THE DURATION OF THIS EVENT. TRAVEL WILL
  BECOME HAZARDOUS STARTING FRIDAY NIGHT.

 

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.49" of rain so far IMBY.  Turned the gravel roads into skating rinks, sand/gravel trucks had to back up hills to lay down grit. 

 

I hate rain in this type of weather.  WSW SE MN tonight, one County away, I could get grazed.  I'm over winter, bring on the warmer temps and some sun.

I'm ready for spring weather too. Also, makes me so mad too when I'm so close and just miss the action thats only a county away. When that happens I find myself saying I want to move. lol

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.49" of rain so far IMBY.  Turned the gravel roads into skating rinks, sand/gravel trucks had to back up hills to lay down grit. 

 

I hate rain in this type of weather.  WSW SE MN tonight, one County away, I could get grazed.  I'm over winter, bring on the warmer temps and some sun.

 

.72 total IMBY...nothing but a sheet of ice as everything has frozen over.

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Looks like there will be a storm train coming across this region into my neck of the woods over the next 5 days at least. 

Will be in the Black Hills for the next 5 days, any chance that weekend system will be bigger than currently forecasted? Any thoughts welcome. 

I don't mind a little snow, just hopefully nothing like the last system.

 

---

 

Beautiful shot Siberian Express, reminds me of the trees here after the 2/7/13 storm.

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URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN

305 PM CDT THU MAR 14 2013

...FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT...

.A STORM SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO ORGANIZE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS

LATER THIS EVENING AND MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST

THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. INITIALLY...WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT

WILL CAUSE PRECIPITATION TO FALL IN THE FORM OF FREEZING RAIN AND

SLEET FOR AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94...WITH THE PREDOMINANT TYPE

OF FREEZING RAIN FOR AREAS ALONG THE MINNESOTA RIVER

VALLEY...SOUTHWARD TO THE IOWA BORDER. AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE

94 WILL HAVE A MIXTURE OF SLEET AND SNOW...POSSIBLY SOME FREEZING

RAIN EARLY...BEFORE CHANGING TO SNOW BY FRIDAY MORNING. ONCE

COLDER AIR MOVES ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING...THE

PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW. THERE WILL BE A LULL

IN THE PRECIPITATION FRIDAY MORNING...BEFORE THE NEXT WAVE OF

SNOWFALL DEVELOPS DURING THE AFTERNOON. BY SATURDAY MORNING...

SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM 4 TO 6 INCHES NORTH OF AN

ALEXANDRIA TO SAINT CLOUD MINNESOTA...TO EAU CLAIRE WISCONSIN

LINE. AREAS SOUTH OF MORRIS TO THE TWIN CITIES AND RED WING WILL

LIKELY SEE AMOUNTS RANGING FROM 1 TO 4 INCHES...WITH ICE

ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE TENTH OF AN INCH ALONG THE MINNESOTA RIVER

VALLEY...TO THE IOWA BORDER.

MNZ041>043-047>050-054>058-064-065-073-150500-

/O.NEW.KMPX.WW.Y.0016.130315T0600Z-130316T0600Z/

DOUGLAS-TODD-MORRISON-STEVENS-POPE-STEARNS-BENTON-LAC QUI PARLE-

SWIFT-CHIPPEWA-KANDIYOHI-MEEKER-YELLOW MEDICINE-RENVILLE-REDWOOD-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALEXANDRIA...LONG PRAIRIE...

LITTLE FALLS...MORRIS...GLENWOOD...ST. CLOUD...FOLEY...MADISON...

BENSON...MONTEVIDEO...WILLMAR...LITCHFIELD...GRANITE FALLS...

OLIVIA...REDWOOD FALLS

305 PM CDT THU MAR 14 2013

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM FRIDAY TO 1 AM CDT

SATURDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN HAS ISSUED

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN...WHICH

IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM FRIDAY TO 1 AM CDT SATURDAY.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM FRIDAY...TO 1 AM

SATURDAY MORNING.

* TIMING: A MIXTURE OF SLEET AND SNOW...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH

  FREEZING RAIN WILL DEVELOP ACROSS WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA AFTER

  MIDNIGHT AND SPREAD SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. THE MIXTURE OF

  PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW BY FRIDAY MORNING.

* MAIN IMPACT: TOTAL SNOWFALL BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM

  4 TO 6 INCHES NORTH OF AN ALEXANDRIA TO SAINT CLOUD

  MINNESOTA...TO EAU CLAIRE WISCONSIN LINE...TO ONE TO FOUR INCHES

  SOUTH OF THIS LINE. ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE TENTH OF AN INCH

  ALONG THE MINNESOTA RIVER VALLEY...TO THE IOWA BORDER.

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Yes an interesting time up here in Grand Forks region.    It will only serve to ramp up flooding concerns as if or when this -AO relaxes and warmer air comes in  it could be early to mid April and then go from cold to very warm very fast....

Combining three storms (8 days), the GFS has 27" of snow for Bismarck ND. The storm at day 7 (i.e. 984mb in Nebraska) may not verify too well though.

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Combining three storms (8 days), the GFS has 27" of snow for Bismarck ND. The storm at day 7 (i.e. 984mb in Nebraska) may not verify too well though.

 

 

Bismarck could handle the snow much better as all theirs has melted.....they were 62 Thursday.   Meanwhile 28 in Grand Forks.    But yes the Monday one does look pretty intense on 12z GFS/Euro.     They do need more moisture in southwest and south central ND so they would welcome it.

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Fargo will shatter the record for the latest first 50 degree temp of the season...and records go back to 1881!  

The record may be extended to April 22, at least.

 

4/17 - 1881

4/16 - 1962, 1979

4/15 - 1950

4/13 - 1965, 1982, 1989, 2001

4/12 - 1923

4/11 - 1937

 

Plus, Fargo has had continuous snow cover since December 9.

 

Even more amazing, I believe, is that Grand Forks has not had a temp above 40 since December 3.  

They did reach exactly 40 on January 10.

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