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prinsburg_wx

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MPX went with a Blizzard Warning for the Willmar area on sunday.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN

336 PM CST SAT DEC 8 2012

...MAJOR WINTER STORM BEARING DOWN ON THE UPPER MIDWEST TONIGHT

THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...

...BLIZZARD CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN MINNESOTA SUNDAY

AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

DOUGLAS-STEVENS-POPE-LAC QUI PARLE-SWIFT-CHIPPEWA-KANDIYOHI-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALEXANDRIA...MORRIS...GLENWOOD...

MADISON...BENSON...MONTEVIDEO...WILLMAR

...WINTER STORM WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO

11 AM CST SUNDAY...

...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST

SUNDAY NIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN HAS ISSUED

A BLIZZARD WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM SUNDAY TO

MIDNIGHT CST SUNDAY NIGHT.

* TIMING...SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES...WILL BEGIN EARLY THIS EVENING

AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE HEAVY SNOW WILL TAPER OFF

SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED THEREAFTER.

THE WIND WILL THEN INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH BLIZZARD

CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO SUNDAY EVENING.

* WINDS/VISIBILITY...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 25 TO 35 MPH

WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 45 MPH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WILL RESULT IN WHITEOUT

CONDITIONS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH NEAR ZERO

VISIBILITY.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...6 TO 9 INCHES.

* TEMPERATURES...LOWER 20S EARLY ON SUNDAY WILL PLUMMET BEHIND THE

SYSTEM INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND 10

TO 15 BELOW LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. WIND CHILLS WILL FALL TO 25 TO 30

BELOW.

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Wow whatever happened to the active forums I remember seeing? I came here to brag about our 6.5 inch and rising snowfall but there's nobody here. In Brookings, South Dakota. This stuff will be on the ground until late February.

The maps started shifting the heavier snow southward right as the storm was starting (Earl Barker's website) ... you know how we usually get half the amount the NOAA predicts, this time we got double.

Edit: It's now 10 inches and rising according to my tape measure, actually nearing 11. Somewhat localized. Get on the interstate and drive 30 miles south, there might be 3 inches. I wouldn't know, the town is pretty much shut down.

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  • 1 month later...

Strong Winter Storm likely Fri-Sat for most of the Dakotas thru n MN...6-12" of snow, strong winds and very cold wind chills expected in this area. The remainder of MN is expected to escape the winter threat of snow as the dry slot moves through.

 

 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
641 AM CST WED JAN 9 2013

...POTENTIAL WINTER STORM FOR WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...

.A DEVELOPING WINTER STORM OVER THE ROCKIES IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
TOWARD THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT...AND MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION BY SATURDAY MORNING. A WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR ALL OF WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FOR THIS TIME. AS THE
STORM APPROACHES THURSDAY NIGHT...A PERIOD OF SLEET AND FREEZING
RAIN IS POSSIBLE. THIS IS EXPECTED MAINLY CENTRAL AND SOUTH
CENTRAL. THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BECOME ALL SNOW BY NOON FRIDAY
AS MUCH COLDER AIR ENTERS THE STATE. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW. DEPENDING ON THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THE STORM...
THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ACROSS A WIDE
AREA OF WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. WIND CHILLS WILL FALL TO
NEAR 30 BELOW BY SATURDAY MORNING. TRAVEL MAY BECOME DIFFICULT. BE
PREPARED FOR THIS WINTER WEATHER. CARRY A WINTER SURVIVAL KIT IN
YOUR CAR AND STAY TUNED TO YOUR FAVORITE WEATHER SOURCE FOR
FURTHER UPDATES ON THIS POTENTIAL WINTER STORM.

NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051-092045-
/O.CON.KBIS.WS.A.0001.130111T0600Z-130112T1200Z/
DIVIDE-BURKE-RENVILLE-BOTTINEAU-ROLETTE-WILLIAMS-MOUNTRAIL-WARD-
MCHENRY-PIERCE-MCKENZIE-DUNN-MERCER-OLIVER-MCLEAN-SHERIDAN-WELLS-
FOSTER-GOLDEN VALLEY-BILLINGS-STARK-MORTON-BURLEIGH-KIDDER-
STUTSMAN-SLOPE-HETTINGER-GRANT-BOWMAN-ADAMS-SIOUX-EMMONS-LOGAN-
LA MOURE-MCINTOSH-DICKEY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CROSBY...BOWBELLS...MOHALL...
BOTTINEAU...ROLLA...WILLISTON...NEW TOWN...MINOT...TOWNER...
RUGBY...WATFORD CITY...KILLDEER...BEULAH...HAZEN...CENTER...
GARRISON...MCCLUSKY...HARVEY...CARRINGTON...BEACH...MEDORA...
DICKINSON...MANDAN...BISMARCK...STEELE...JAMESTOWN...MARMARTH...
MOTT...ELGIN...BOWMAN...HETTINGER...FORT YATES...LINTON...
NAPOLEON...EDGELEY...ASHLEY...OAKES
641 AM CST WED JAN 9 2013 /541 AM MST WED JAN 9 2013/

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...

* TIMING...LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

* MAIN IMPACT...POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW.

* OTHER IMPACTS...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN INITIALLY MAY CAUSE
  SLIPPERY ROADS. WIND CHILLS WILL FALL TO NEAR 30 BELOW.

 

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I think the biggest impact will be the temps. The snow won't help us out at the end of next week when that trough digs through and brings that Polar Vortex and coinciding cold with it. GFS looking less and less crazy now.

 

Looking like the Grand Forks area will get nailed from the upcoming storm.

 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND

342 PM CST WED JAN 9 2013

...MAJOR WINTER STORM POSSIBLE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...

.AFTER VERY MILD TEMPERATURES FOR JANUARY FOR MUCH OF THE

WEEK...THE PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT SIGNIFICANTLY FOR THURSDAY

NIGHT AND INTO THE WEEKEND. ONE UPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM THE

SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...BRINGING PRECIPITATION

INTO FAR SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA

THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY. WITH VERY WARM AIR JUST ABOVE THE

SURFACE...AND TEMPERATURES AT THE GROUND JUST BELOW

FREEZING...SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO FALL AS

FREEZING RAIN. SOME ICE ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE...MAINLY SOUTH

AND EAST OF A COOPERSTOWN TO GRAND FORKS TO HALLOCK LINE.

LOCATIONS IN WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA NEAR DETROIT LAKES AND BEMIDJI

COULD SEE ICE ACCUMULATIONS APPROACHING ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH.

MEANWHILE...A LARGE UPPER TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE WEST WILL HELP

BRING SNOW...STARTING IN THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN THURSDAY NIGHT AND

SPREADING SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH FRIDAY. BY FRIDAY NIGHT

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH THAT THE ENTIRE AREA SHOULD SEE

A CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW. THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY

NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING. AT THIS POINT IT SEEMS THAT THE

HEAVIEST ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE FROM DEVILS LAKE UP TOWARDS

ROSEAU...WHERE 8 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL INCREASE

FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND BECOME QUIET STRONG FRIDAY NIGHT...AND NEAR

BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH VISIBILITIES UNDER A

HALF A MILE AND BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW.

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-

026>030-038-039-049-052>054-121800-

/O.NEW.KFGF.WS.A.0001.130111T0600Z-130112T1800Z/

WEST POLK-NORMAN-CLAY-KITTSON-ROSEAU-LAKE OF THE WOODS-

WEST MARSHALL-EAST MARSHALL-NORTH BELTRAMI-PENNINGTON-RED LAKE-

EAST POLK-NORTH CLEARWATER-SOUTH BELTRAMI-MAHNOMEN-

SOUTH CLEARWATER-HUBBARD-WEST BECKER-EAST BECKER-WILKIN-

WEST OTTER TAIL-EAST OTTER TAIL-WADENA-GRANT-TOWNER-CAVALIER-

PEMBINA-BENSON-RAMSEY-EASTERN WALSH-EDDY-NELSON-GRAND FORKS-

GRIGGS-STEELE-TRAILL-BARNES-CASS-RANSOM-SARGENT-RICHLAND-

WESTERN WALSH-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CROOKSTON...EAST GRAND FORKS...

HALSTAD...MOORHEAD...HALLOCK...ROSEAU...BAUDETTE...WARREN...

NEWFOLDEN...RED LAKE...THIEF RIVER FALLS...RED LAKE FALLS...

FOSSTON...BAGLEY...BEMIDJI...MAHNOMEN...LAKE ITASCA...

PARK RAPIDS...DETROIT LAKES...WOLF LAKE...BRECKENRIDGE...

FERGUS FALLS...NEW YORK MILLS...WADENA...ELBOW LAKE...CANDO...

LANGDON...CAVALIER...MADDOCK...LEEDS...DEVILS LAKE...GRAFTON...

NEW ROCKFORD...LAKOTA...GRAND FORKS...COOPERSTOWN...FINLEY...

MAYVILLE...VALLEY CITY...FARGO...LISBON...GWINNER...WAHPETON...

ADAMS

342 PM CST WED JAN 9 2013

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH

SATURDAY MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAND FORKS HAS ISSUED A WINTER

STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH

SATURDAY MORNING.

* RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO FAR SOUTHEASTERN

  NORTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH

  THE FREEZING RAIN THREAT CONTINUING INTO THE DAY ON FRIDAY. SNOW

  WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN THURSDAY

  NIGHT...SPREADING SOUTH AND EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY

  AS TEMPERATURES DROP. THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY

  NIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF ON SATURDAY.

* WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 25 TO 30 MPH RANGE WITH HIGHER

  GUSTS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE STRONGEST WINDS

  WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE RED RIVER VALLEY WESTWARD.

* VISIBILITIES COULD APPROACH A HALF TO EVEN A QUARTER OF A MILE

  AT TIMES.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE HIGHEST IN THE DEVILS LAKE

  TO ROSEAU AREA WHERE 8 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. 6 TO 8 INCHES

  WILL BE POSSIBLE BETWEEN THAT AREA SOUTH TO A VALLEY CITY TO

  BEMIDJI LINE. LIGHTER ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE FOUND IN

  SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA.

* WIND CHILL VALUES OF 25 TO 30 BELOW ZERO WILL BE POSSIBLE WEST

  OF THE RED RIVER LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

* ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF NEARLY A QUARTER OF AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE

  NEAR DETROIT LAKES TO BEMIDJI...WITH LIGHTER ACCUMULATIONS NORTH

  AND WEST OF THAT AREA.

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I think the biggest impact will be the temps. The snow won't help us out at the end of next week when that trough digs through and brings that Polar Vortex and coinciding cold with it. GFS looking less and less crazy now.

 

And, as you say that Dave, the 18z GFS looks fantastic for our area. ;)  The latest run hints at 8-12 inches possible.

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Congrats South Dakota on the first -20C 850mb temperature I've seen in a while.

 

0805 AM     HEAVY SNOW       5 E PORCUPINE           43.24N 102.23W  01/12/2013  M10.0 INCH       SHANNON            SD   TRAINED SPOTTER                 STILL SNOWING LIGHTLY. MOST OF SNOW FELL FRIDAY.  

It is about time. Arctic outbreak upcoming...just how it should be for the N Plains in winter. 

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Certainly does look like the best shot in a while for a good arctic blast across the northern plains and possibly eastward into New England. With a ~1050mb high dropping down I'd expect to finally see some true vodka cold here in GFK. After one and a half winters here I've yet to see a temperature below -18*. I'm still a bit skeptical as the last few times models have shown temps in the -20 range either winds help up just a bit, or more frequently low clouds just parked over the area. In fact, as recently as the last couple of nights both MOS and some of the higher res models were somewhere on the order of 10-20 too cold. With seasonable temperatures along with several chances of light snowfall through the week, there should at least be enough of a snow pack to sustain some of these cold temps.

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Hi there...in Grand Forks too and working mid shift..    buy yeah should have a good shot of some -20s early next week as should get enough of a high to clear us out and gives a couple of days of clear sky.   -25F or so isnt all that uncommon....so nothing extreme going on.   But after last years very warm time....-25F would be a bit chilly.  i was fortunate to be working the night we had -43C.  

 

Dan

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Hi there...in Grand Forks too and working mid shift..    buy yeah should have a good shot of some -20s early next week as should get enough of a high to clear us out and gives a couple of days of clear sky.   -25F or so isnt all that uncommon....so nothing extreme going on.   But after last years very warm time....-25F would be a bit chilly.  i was fortunate to be working the night we had -43C.  

 

Dan

This arctic front pushing into Nodak is about as good as it gets...at least given the meagre past two winters. 

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  • 2 weeks later...
   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0059   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK   0209 PM CST MON JAN 28 2013      AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/N-CNTRL/NERN SD...SERN ND...W-CNTRL/N-CNTRL   MN      CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW       VALID 282009Z - 290215Z      SUMMARY...A BAND OF PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP NEWD THROUGH LATE   THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. SNOW...WITH 1-IN/HR RATES...ALONG   WITH AREAS OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN...WILL BE POSSIBLE.      DISCUSSION...PRECIPITATION WILL INTENSIFY ALONG A NE/SW-ORIENTED   DEFORMATION ZONE THAT WILL BECOME BETTER DEFINED THROUGH LATE THIS   AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. STRENGTHENING CONFLUENCE WITHIN THIS   ZONE WILL FORCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF FRONTOGENETIC CIRCULATIONS THAT   WILL AUGMENT ASCENT TO CREATE A NE/SW-ORIENTED BAND OF HEAVY SNOW.   REGIONAL MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT INCIPIENT DEVELOPMENT IS   UNDERWAY ACROSS CNTRL/N-CNTRL/NERN SD. THE SNOW BAND IS FORECAST TO   EXPAND NEWD THROUGH THE EVENING...REACHING THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER   BY 04Z. THE HEAVIEST SNOW -- WITH RATES OF AROUND 1 IN/HR -- WILL   LIKELY COVER A 60-90-MILE-WIDE CORRIDOR CENTERED FROM NEAR PIR TO 40   ESE INL. THIS IS AFFIRMED BY CONSENSUS AMONGST RECENT   HIGH-RESOLUTION WRF GUIDANCE.      IMMEDIATELY TO THE SE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED CORRIDOR...MULTIPLE   WINTER PRECIPITATION TYPES MAY OCCUR. AN ELEVATED WARM LAYER SHOULD   SUPPORT PARTIAL/COMPLETE HYDROMETEOR MELTING TO YIELD SLEET/FREEZING   RAIN AS PRECIPITATION INITIALLY FALLS. AMDAR FOR DESCENDING ROUTES   INTO MSP FROM THE W SAMPLED 850-MB TEMPERATURES AROUND 6-7 C IN   CONJUNCTION WITH THE WARM LAYER. WHILE THESE TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY   SOMEWHAT LOWER ACROSS THE MCD AREA...AT LEAST A BRIEF PERIOD OF   SLEET/FREEZING RAIN WILL BE OF CONCERN. FREEZING RAIN RATES COULD   REACH 0.05-0.07 INCH PER 3 HOURS. THE INFLUX OF DEEPER COLD AIR   SHOULD ALLOW FOR A TRANSITION TO SNOW FROM SW TO NE WITH SNOW RATES   LOCALLY REACHING 1 IN/HR THROUGH THE EVENING.

post-252-0-89509100-1359405224_thumb.gif

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD

458 PM CST MON JAN 28 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...

..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....

            ..REMARKS..

0455 PM     SNOW             ROSCOE                  45.45N  99.33W

01/28/2013  M6.0 INCH        EDMUNDS            SD   EMERGENCY MNGR

0402 PM     SNOW             2 N HOVEN               45.27N  99.78W

01/28/2013  E5.0 INCH        WALWORTH           SD   TRAINED SPOTTER

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD

458 PM CST MON JAN 28 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...

..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....

            ..REMARKS..

0455 PM     SNOW             ROSCOE                  45.45N  99.33W

01/28/2013  M6.0 INCH        EDMUNDS            SD   EMERGENCY MNGR

0402 PM     SNOW             2 N HOVEN               45.27N  99.78W

01/28/2013  E5.0 INCH        WALWORTH           SD   TRAINED SPOTTER

Catch any snow at your place?

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Might get a brief encore of the snow from northern Kansas into eastern Nebraska today. TOP and DDC NWS on it! Winter wx advisories posted in Kansas. TWOWAL-like feature developing in eastern Colorado. It's not textbook, but still WAA with north winds at 850. Call it a hybrid with a second shortwave coming in behind the (main) severe wx lead wave.

 

I like TWOWALs or comma heads because they tend to over-achieve snow relative to other back-of-the-system junk. Today features good multi-layer clouds back over the snow area. Some features are only mid-level clouds and crap out. Multi-layer clouds like today is bullish, in that model qpf should be achieved. I'm not talking big time snow since the main WAA conveyer belt is well east. However 3-5 inches would not surprise me. Surface temps may hang just above freezing, but we'll see if some fat/phat flakes can overcome. Probably. Enjoy!

 

Happy Birthday to the State of Kansas!

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MPX pretty much sums it up for minnesota's weather for the next week.

 

 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
359 AM CST SAT FEB 2 2013

.DISCUSSION...

OVERVIEW...IN THE 1993 COMEDY GROUNDHOG`S DAY...BILL MURRAY IS
A WEATHERMAN FORCED TO RELIVE THE SAME DAY OVER AND OVER AGAIN.
SO...MAYBE IT`S FATE THAT TODAY IS GROUNDHOG`S DAY AND MYSELF
ALONG WITH ALL THE RESIDENTS OF MN/WI WILL BE TREATED TO 5 WEAK
ALBERTA CLIPPER SYSTEMS IN AS MANY DAYS. THE FIRST IS EXITING THE
AREA THIS MORNING AFTER DEPOSITING A FRESH COUPLE INCHES OF POWDER
IN MANY LOCATIONS...AND REGARDLESS OF WHAT PUNXSUTAWNEY PHIL SEES
TODAY...WE`LL BE HITTING OUR ALARM CLOCKS ONLY TO FIND EACH DAY IS
JUST LIKE THE LAST. POP SOME POPCORN...GRAB THE MILK DUDS AND SIT
BACK TO THE 2013 VERSION OF GROUNDHOG`S DAY WHICH WILL BRING
CLOUDS AND 4 MORE ROUNDS OF LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THURSDAY. OH AND IF
YOU STICK AROUND FOR THE CREDITS...THERE`S A SPECIAL PREVIEW OF
A STORM BREWING NEXT WEEKEND. ENJOY THE SHOW.

 

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