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Northern Plains Discussion


prinsburg_wx

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  • 3 weeks later...

Models have been hinting at it for awhile and now a threat for flakes has held on into the 4 day range.

 

Forms out of that bowling ball type deal that plows through SOCAL. 

 

System amplifies through the Plains as high lat ridging drops fresh 103x HP out of the Arctic Circle.

 

Hudson Bay Vortex anchors the HP in place.

 

Threat looks legit IMO.

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Going to be a close call here in Bismarck... Could be 6-8 inches or just mostly rain. Tough forecast and one we are struggling with as an office. Looks pretty certain to have significant snowfall in south central ND for sure, however. Will be into work at 5am. Should be an interesting day.

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GF WFO did a nice write up of the recent wind event.

 

 

How unusual is this type of event for late July?

Although it is typical to get strong winds gusts in July associated with thunderstorms, it is quite unusual to see such strong winds associated with a synoptic (large scale) weather system.  Such a weather system would more typically occur later in the Fall through the Winter and into the Spring. To put this in perspective, looking at the 1979-2009 climatology, and using wind speeds around 850mb (3000-3500 feet above the surface) as a proxy for the strength of this system, these wind speeds have never happened within this 30-year period during this time of year.  Looking at this from another angle, the 850mb wind speeds were roughtly 6 standard deviations from the mean, which related to a probability of occurrence near 0.001% for this time of year! 

 

http://www.weather.gov/fgf/StrongJuly28Winds

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That certainly seems to make sense. The 850mb height was 5 standard deviations below normal, on the border of ND, around this time frame. I don't believe I have seen any other times in summertime when there were non-thunderstorm wind reports of 60-70mph.

 

850hght_stdanom_namer_47.gif

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RECORD EVENT REPORT  

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND  

500 PM CDT SAT AUG 15 2015  

   

..RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT BISMARCK ND  

 

SO FAR...A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 105 DEGREES HAS BEEN SET AT  

BISMARCK ND SATURDAY AUGUST 15 2015. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF  

101 SET IN 2003.  

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RECORD EVENT REPORT   
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND  
500 PM CDT SAT AUG 15 2015  
   
..RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT BISMARCK ND  
  
SO FAR...A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 105 DEGREES HAS BEEN SET AT   
BISMARCK ND SATURDAY AUGUST 15 2015. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF   
101 SET IN 2003.  

Yuck. Not that bad in the NE portion but HI did break the century Mark a couple days.

Fronts through and beautiful out.

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The GFS and ECMWF are now picking up on a decent snow event for the Twin Cities, South Dakota, and Nebraska as the Great Basin upper low ejects away from the Rockies.

--

Sioux Falls SD discussion

--

WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE CANADIAN GEM...ALL DETERMINISTIC MODELS
ARE SHOWING OVER 0.5" OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS EXCEEDING 1" WHERE THE HEAVIER SNOWFALL SETS UP ON MONDAY.
AT THIS POINT...EXPECTING SNOW RATIOS FROM 9:1 EARLY IN THE EVENT
TO 13:1 BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT. THIS COULD MEAN A LARGE PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA SEEING OVER 6 INCHES OF SNOW...WITH SOME AREAS
HAVING THE POTENTIAL TO MORE THAN 8 INCHES OF SNOWFALL IN 24 H.

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Winter wonderland as E ND receives their first widespread multi inch snowfall of the year.

 

Have 3" and still coming down with a last min advisory for up to 5".

 

Radar precip totals suggest the heaviest forcing shifted North of Fargo with up to a half inch of liquid falling between Fargo and Grand Forks...which fell in line with HIRES guidance late last night.

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Winter wonderland as E ND receives their first widespread multi inch snowfall of the year.

 

Have 3" and still coming down with a last min advisory for up to 5".

 

Radar precip totals suggest the heaviest forcing shifted North of Fargo with up to a half inch of liquid falling between Fargo and Grand Forks...which fell in line with HIRES guidance late last night.

 

Congrats - it's about time. :)

 

Unfortunately, it looks like temps of 40-45 this weekend will melt much of the snow.  It's going to be a struggle to sustain snow cover for awhile anywhere in the U.S., with the raging El Nino.

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