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Northern Plains Discussion


prinsburg_wx

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TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 411

 

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

 

500 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014

 

 

TORNADO WATCH 411 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1200 AM CDT FOR THE

 

FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

 

 

IAC003-007-011-031-039-045-051-053-057-087-095-097-099-101-103-

 

105-107-111-113-115-117-121-123-125-135-139-153-157-159-163-173-

 

175-177-179-181-183-185-130500-

 

/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0411.140712T2200Z-140713T0500Z/

 

 

IA

 

.    IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

 

 

ADAMS                APPANOOSE           BENTON

 

CEDAR                CLARKE              CLINTON

 

DAVIS                DECATUR             DES MOINES

 

HENRY                IOWA                JACKSON

 

JASPER               JEFFERSON           JOHNSON

 

JONES                KEOKUK              LEE

 

LINN                 LOUISA              LUCAS

 

MADISON              MAHASKA             MARION

 

MONROE               MUSCATINE           POLK

 

POWESHIEK            RINGGOLD            SCOTT

 

TAYLOR               UNION               VAN BUREN

 

WAPELLO              WARREN              WASHINGTON

 

WAYNE

 

$$

 

 

TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 411

 

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

 

500 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014

 

 

TORNADO WATCH 411 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1200 AM CDT FOR THE

 

FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

 

 

ILC015-071-073-085-131-161-177-187-195-130500-

 

/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0411.140712T2200Z-140713T0500Z/

 

 

IL

 

.    ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

 

 

CARROLL              HENDERSON           HENRY

 

JO DAVIESS           MERCER              ROCK ISLAND

 

STEPHENSON           WARREN              WHITESIDE

 

$$

 

 

TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 411

 

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

 

500 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014

 

 

TORNADO WATCH 411 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1200 AM CDT FOR THE

 

FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

 

 

MOC001-005-045-075-079-081-129-147-171-197-199-211-227-130500-

 

/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0411.140712T2200Z-140713T0500Z/

 

 

MO

 

.    MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

 

 

ADAIR                ATCHISON            CLARK

 

GENTRY               GRUNDY              HARRISON

 

MERCER               NODAWAY             PUTNAM

 

SCHUYLER             SCOTLAND            SULLIVAN

 

WORTH

 

 

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  • 4 weeks later...

Welcome to the red river valley....I am at NWS Grand Forks.   You missed out on our chilly winter last year.

 

Dan

 

Yeah, well I was hoping this year for a bit of El Nino to perhaps make my first winter a bit milder, but... that's plan isn't working out too well at the moment. My reasoning to moving to Fargo is that I am starting graduate school at NDSU for Emergency Management.

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Bump. Hi everyone! Maryland to Fargo is going to be.... interesting...

Welcome to the frozen tundra... I did my grad work in Grand Forks and now I'm in Bismarck. You'll be fine... My wife and I are southerners and we have gotten to where it's not too bad in the winter. And the summers are fantastic.

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  • 2 weeks later...
  • 3 weeks later...

I'm guessing this is the best subforum for MN / adjacent S. plains of western Ontario? 

 

Winter weather model mayhem starts early this year!  NAM has a much cooler BL than the GFS, leading to heavy wet snow rather than a steady soaking rain.  T850s are perhaps slightly cooler on the NAM with a bit more polar-jet energy getting involved, but this discrepancy appears to be primarily a difference of precipitation rate / evaporative cooling.  Yes I know these weenie snow maps are never quite right, but it's definitely a useful tool to visualize some fundamental model discrepancies when the differences are this obvious. 

 

If I had to make a forecast right now, I'd probably go 80% GFS / 20% NAM, with perhaps a localized slushy T-1/2" in far northeastern MN. 

post-378-0-81391800-1410196860_thumb.gif

 

post-378-0-39652800-1410196865_thumb.gif

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URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD

218 PM MDT WED SEP 10 2014

...ACCUMULATING HEAVY WET SNOW EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT AND

THURSDAY...

.A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND

THURSDAY. RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY

THURSDAY ACROSS THE BLACK HILLS AND NORTHEAST WYOMING...WITH

SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTED BEFORE THE STORM

MOVES EAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION WILL

LIKELY BEGIN AS SNOW AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 6000 FEET. HEAVY WET SNOW

MAY LEAD TO TREE DAMAGE AND POWER OUTAGES. PERSONS PLANNING TRAVEL

TONIGHT OR THURSDAY MORNING IN THE BLACK HILLS SHOULD PREPARE FOR

DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS.

SDZ024-028-WYZ057-110430-

/O.UPG.KUNR.WW.Y.0021.140911T0600Z-140912T0000Z/

/O.NEW.KUNR.WS.W.0009.140911T0300Z-140911T1800Z/

NORTHERN BLACK HILLS-CENTRAL BLACK HILLS-WYOMING BLACK HILLS-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LEAD...DEADWOOD...HILL CITY...

MT RUSHMORE...SUNDANCE...FOUR CORNERS

218 PM MDT WED SEP 10 2014

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON

MDT THURSDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RAPID CITY HAS ISSUED A WINTER

STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS

EVENING TO NOON MDT THURSDAY. THIS REPLACES THE WINTER WEATHER

ADVISORY.

* TIMING...RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW LATE THIS EVENING...WITH SNOW

CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY START AS

SNOW AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 6000 FEET.

* MAIN HAZARD...4 TO 7 INCHES OF WET HEAVY SNOW...WITH LOCALLY

HIGHER AMOUNTS.

* IMPACTS...WET HEAVY SNOW MAY CAUSE DAMAGE TO TREES AND POWER

LINES. RANCHERS AND OTHERS WITH OUTDOOR INTERESTS SHOULD PREPARE

NOW FOR THIS ABRUPT CHANGE TO WINTER LIKE CONDITIONS.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD

926 AM MDT THU SEP 11 2014

SNOW REPORTS LISTED BY AMOUNT

INCHES LOCATION ST COUNTY TIME

------ ----------------------- -- -------------- -------

8.00 DOWNTOWN CUSTER SD CUSTER 0800 AM

7.00 MOUNT RUSHMORE SD PENNINGTON 0810 AM

7.00 1 ENE DOWNTOWN CUSTER SD CUSTER 0605 AM

6.00 5 S HILL CITY SD PENNINGTON 0815 AM

6.00 8 NW TERRY PEAK SD LAWRENCE 0750 AM

6.00 2 SSE DEERFIELD RESERVO SD PENNINGTON 0740 AM

5.00 5 ENE DOWNTOWN CUSTER SD CUSTER 0600 AM

5.00 JOHNSON SIDING SD PENNINGTON 0530 AM

4.50 HILL CITY SD PENNINGTON 0852 AM

4.00 1 ENE SUNDANCE WY CROOK 0800 AM

4.00 2 SSE DEERFIELD RESERVO SD PENNINGTON 0400 AM

3.00 7 SW DOWNTOWN RAPID CIT SD PENNINGTON 0800 AM

2.50 1 W DOWNTOWN RAPID CITY SD PENNINGTON 0815 AM

2.00 6 E DEVILS TOWER JUNCTI WY CROOK 0842 AM

2.00 9 ENE DEVILS TOWER JUNC WY CROOK 0840 AM

2.00 ALADDIN WY CROOK 0835 AM

2.00 6 W BEULAH WY CROOK 0824 AM

2.00 5 W WHITEWOOD SD LAWRENCE 0820 AM

2.00 2 W DOWNTOWN SPEARFISH SD LAWRENCE 0815 AM

2.00 3 ESE DOWNTOWN GILLETTE WY CAMPBELL 0750 AM

2.00 4 S DOWNTOWN RAPID CITY SD PENNINGTON 0600 AM

1.50 BEULAH WY CROOK 0855 AM

1.30 12 SW MOSKEE WY WESTON 0800 AM

1.00 FOUR CORNERS WY WESTON 0827 AM

1.00 1 N DOWNTOWN RAPID CITY SD PENNINGTON 0815 AM

1.00 LEAD SD LAWRENCE 0745 AM

0.90 1 NW PIEDMONT SD MEADE 0730 AM

0.90 1 ESE DOWNTOWN RAPID CI SD PENNINGTON 0600 AM

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  • 1 month later...

I'll give this a bump. Looks like its time to start winter weather forecasting. Both NAM and GFS give a shot at some precip on Wednesday. For North Dakota, GFS seems to lean me towards mixed type precip whereas NAM pushes me toward more of the frozen variety during the daylight hours. Central MN for Wednesday evening/night could be interesting, particularly the I-35 corridor between Duluth and the Cities. Guess we'll see how things change throughout the runs today/tomorrow.

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I'll give this a bump. Looks like its time to start winter weather forecasting. Both NAM and GFS give a shot at some precip on Wednesday. For North Dakota, GFS seems to lean me towards mixed type precip whereas NAM pushes me toward more of the frozen variety during the daylight hours. Central MN for Wednesday evening/night could be interesting, particularly the I-35 corridor between Duluth and the Cities. Guess we'll see how things change throughout the runs today/tomorrow.

 

FGF mentions 1-2" snow possible around the Grand Forks area. WPC has low prob of 4"

post-252-0-15319700-1415140238_thumb.gif

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  • 4 months later...

The GFS has been showing a major snowstorm/blizzard somewhere over ND/SD/Saskatchewan/Manitoba by Tues/Wed of next week for a few runs now. While the storm itself has been consistent, the location has been all over the place. The current 12z run would paint a widespread swath of 14-20 inches of snow over much of central ND. However, the ECMWF has been consistently further north and less intense. Will be watching this closely the next several days after an initial strong Clipper that will push through on Sunday. As is tradition in the northern Plains... we are seeing a bit of uptick in activity here as we transition to Spring.

 

I do want to stress that there are still numerous questions at this range and uncertainty is very high.

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Tomorrow, a shortwave will pass through the region with an area of precipitation tracking from Dickenson, ND - Fargo, ND - then southest to the Twin Cities area, with the heaviest precip in the St. Cloud, MN area per the 12Z NAM. Point soundings suggest all snow north of the 540 thickness, with point soundings getting closer to a sleet/freezing RA/DZ event, but with the depth of the cold air and lack of good WAA aloft, looks to remain snow throughout. 1-3 inches likely the general snowfall amounts, with some localized higher amounts.

I'm sick of winter, but at least the SPC has been able put out some marginal outlooks.

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  • 2 weeks later...

GFS trying to sell on another shot of significant accumulating snow across the Northern Plains next week.

 

Not quite as strong today, but still significant. The GEM is in fairly good agreement with a swath of 6-8 inch totals over central/southern ND and northern SD. The ECMWF is weaker and further south... but unlike last time, the ECM looks to be an outlier this go around. I'm still not banking on the track or the moisture, but I have a little bit more confidence in this storm system compared with the last one.

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Not quite as strong today, but still significant. The GEM is in fairly good agreement with a swath of 6-8 inch totals over central/southern ND and northern SD. The ECMWF is weaker and further south... but unlike last time, the ECM looks to be an outlier this go around. I'm still not banking on the track or the moisture, but I have a little bit more confidence in this storm system compared with the last one.

System is getting more and more sheared as we tick through the runs today.

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