Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,607
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    ArlyDude
    Newest Member
    ArlyDude
    Joined

Northern Plains Discussion


prinsburg_wx

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 548
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Cavalier, ND K2C8-- brutal blizzard weather once again. I think we have to disregard the -RA observation and replace it with snow or blowing snow.

 

K2C8 261855Z AUTO 35021G28KT M1/4SM +SN OVC001 M14/M17 A2975 RMK AO2 P0004

 

K2C8 262015Z AUTO 34027G36KT 1/2SM -RA BKN019 M15/M18 A2980 RMK AO2

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Cavalier, ND K2C8-- brutal blizzard weather once again. I think we have to disregard the -RA observation and replace it with snow or blowing snow.

 

K2C8 261855Z AUTO 35021G28KT M1/4SM +SN OVC001 M14/M17 A2975 RMK AO2 P0004

 

K2C8 262015Z AUTO 34027G36KT 1/2SM -RA BKN019 M15/M18 A2980 RMK AO2

 

 

Cavalier is one of several AWOS's the state of ND contracted with All Weather Inc out of California to put in at some airport.   There is a known issue with its algorithm to determine precip type and with precipitation accumulation (P group).       The AWOS determines P type by using an algorithm of how the precipitation particles move in front of a laser.    Thus often we have in times of blowing and drifting snow....  the laser sensor thinking the particles are light rain instead of snow, even though temps are very cold.    Thus often in a blowing snow event we have many sites with -RA.     Also there are no true precip tipping buckets or the like at these stations.   Instead it estimates the precipitation by sensing how the precipitation is moving around the laser.    Thus in times of blowing snow, or wind driven rain, it goes bonkers and thinks it heavy rain.    So we dont use the precipitation from these at all..       And as in most cases with even ASOS's, many AWOS sites will report an IFR cig even though it is clear out....due to a layer of blowing snow/ice crystals detected by the ceilometer.    So like with any data, always use with caution.

 

Dan NWS Grand Forks

Link to comment
Share on other sites

NWS forecast for Cut Bank MT...this is insane anytime of year, let alone early March.  Normal high is 38.  If the high of -18 materializes on Saturday, it will be a -56 departure from normal. 

 

Late Afternoon: Snow likely. Mostly sunny and cold, with a steady temperature around -11. Wind chill values as low as -34. North northeast wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible. 

Tonight: Snow likely, mainly before 11pm. Partly cloudy, with a low around -37. Wind chill values as low as -56. North wind 8 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible. 

Saturday: A 30 percent chance of snow, mainly after 11am. Mostly sunny and cold, with a high near -18. Wind chill values as low as -61. Northeast wind 7 to 9 mph. Little or no snow accumulation expected. 

Saturday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around -34. Wind chill values as low as -46. East northeast wind 5 to 10 mph becoming northwest after midnight. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • 2 weeks later...

This is the forecast for the South Dakota/Minnesota border. It sounds like they could almost use a blizzard warning.

 

Rain and snow, possibly mixed with sleet, becoming all snow after 8am. The rain and snow could be heavy at times. Temperature falling to around 25 by 10am. Windy, with a north wind 15 to 20 mph increasing to 25 to 30 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 40 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow and sleet accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • 2 weeks later...

It's still ~96 hours out but the Euro has parts of the Northern Plains getting absolutely pounded Sunday night and in to Monday morning. Current snowfall using 10:1 ratios from QPF output shows a large swath of 12" across C ND/MN.

I think someone needs to start a thread. A classic N Plains spring storm. I am currently skeptical of the ECMWF northern track, however. Hard to get that type of snow so far N with a CO low.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN

404 PM CDT TUE APR 1 2014

...MAJOR WINTER STORM BECOMING LIKELY THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.A WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED EAST OF A LINE FROM CANBY TO

MONTEVIDEO...PAYNESVILLE...AND LAKE MILLE LACS MINNESOTA FROM

THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...INCLUDING THE TWIN

CITIES METRO AND WESTERN WISCONSIN.

A POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM WITH COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE WILL

TRACK FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY MORNING TO NORTHERN

MISSOURI THURSDAY EVENING AND LAKE MICHIGAN EARLY FRIDAY

AFTERNOON. A LARGE BATCH OF PRECIPITATION BEGINNING AS A MIX OF

RAIN AND SNOW WILL TURN TO ALL SNOW THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND

CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. SNOW WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES LATE THURSDAY

AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING WITH 1 TO 2 INCH PER HOUR RATES

POSSIBLE. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES ARE

EXPECTED...WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS ACROSS EASTERN MINNESOTA AND

WESTERN WISCONSIN.

MNZ044-045-049>053-056>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-

023>028-020515-

/O.NEW.KMPX.WS.A.0005.140403T1800Z-140404T2100Z/

MILLE LACS-KANABEC-STEARNS-BENTON-SHERBURNE-ISANTI-CHISAGO-

CHIPPEWA-KANDIYOHI-MEEKER-WRIGHT-HENNEPIN-ANOKA-RAMSEY-WASHINGTON-

YELLOW MEDICINE-RENVILLE-MCLEOD-SIBLEY-CARVER-SCOTT-DAKOTA-

REDWOOD-BROWN-NICOLLET-LE SUEUR-RICE-GOODHUE-WATONWAN-BLUE EARTH-

WASECA-STEELE-MARTIN-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-POLK-BARRON-RUSK-

ST. CROIX-PIERCE-DUNN-PEPIN-EAU CLAIRE-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PRINCETON...MORA...ST. CLOUD...FOLEY...

ELK RIVER...CAMBRIDGE...CENTER CITY...MONTEVIDEO...WILLMAR...

LITCHFIELD...MONTICELLO...MINNEAPOLIS...BLAINE...ST. PAUL...

STILLWATER...GRANITE FALLS...OLIVIA...HUTCHINSON...GAYLORD...

CHASKA...SHAKOPEE...BURNSVILLE...REDWOOD FALLS...NEW ULM...

ST. PETER...LE SUEUR...FARIBAULT...RED WING...ST. JAMES...

MANKATO...WASECA...OWATONNA...FAIRMONT...BLUE EARTH...

ALBERT LEA...AMERY...BALSAM LAKE...RICE LAKE...BARRON...

LADYSMITH...HUDSON...NEW RICHMOND...RIVER FALLS...PRESCOTT...

MENOMONIE...BOYCEVILLE...DURAND...PEPIN...CHIPPEWA FALLS...

BLOOMER...EAU CLAIRE...ALTOONA

404 PM CDT TUE APR 1 2014

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH

FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN HAS ISSUED

A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON

THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

* TIMING...THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MID FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN AS A LIGHT WINTRY MIX WEDNESDAY

NIGHT...AND TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND

EVENING. THE SNOW WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES THURSDAY NIGHT AND

FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE TAPERING OFF FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

* SNOW ACCUMULATION...6 TO 12 INCHES...WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS

LIKELY ACROSS EASTERN MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN.

* WIND...NORTHEAST 10 TO 15 MPH BECOMING NORTHWEST AND INCREASING

TO 15 TO 25 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS TO 35 MPH.

* IMPACTS...TRAVEL WILL BECOME HAZARDOUS THURSDAY NIGHT AND

FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALSO BE A WET SNOW WHICH WILL BE DIFFICULT TO

SHOVEL.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • 2 weeks later...

It was 52 degrees 50 mi. SE of the twin cities at 4:33pm.  I feel for them........naw, after this winter, better them than me.  :icecream:

 

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHANHASSEN MN
433 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

...RECORD DAILY MAXIMUM SNOWFALL SET AT ST CLOUD MN...

A RECORD SNOWFALL OF 7.2 INCHES WAS SET AT ST CLOUD MN TODAY.
IT IS STILL SNOWING. WE WILL UPDATE THIS REPORT WHEN THE SNOW STOPS.

THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 3.0 INCHES SET IN 1961.


$
CARLYON

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7.7" here today.

 

 

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
737 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0736 PM     SNOW             2 NW NORTH BRANCH       45.54N 93.00W
04/16/2014  M15.1 INCH       CHISAGO            MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

0729 PM     SNOW             4 N ANDOVER             45.32N 93.33W
04/16/2014  M11.5 INCH       ANOKA              MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

0726 PM     SNOW             SACRED HEART            44.78N 95.35W
04/16/2014  M9.3 INCH        RENVILLE           MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

0727 PM     SNOW             3 SE OTSEGO             45.26N 93.57W
04/16/2014  M10.5 INCH       WRIGHT             MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • 3 weeks later...

I'm pleased to announce that I've accepted the Intern Meteorologist position with the National Weather Service office in Bismarck, ND... so excited that I've reached another step towards my dream career.  Can't wait to keep discussing Northern Plains weather for years to come.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • 3 weeks later...

The weekend of June 28th and the 29th is looking very interesting up here for the Northern Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley, in particular the Dakota's and Minnesota. I would suggest that most of the disco should go into that thread, instead of the central states.  Way to earlier to start a thread discussing the threat at this time  The GFS/ECMWF/GEM are strongly hinting at it. But if  model trends hold by say Monday morning the 23rd it would be time to start a separate thread. Lets see what the next few days of model trends show.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • 2 weeks later...

The GFS shows an interesting severe setup for Monday the 7th in eastern ND.  The Euro isn't near as bullish and is worlds apart, but the GFS has had this potential for a few runs now with fantastic directional and speed shear as well as moderate to strong instability in the warm sector/cold front and along the triple point and warm front near the Canadian border.  EML may be an issue but 8-10 degree 700s can be overcome with a nice strong disturbance.  Will be interesting to watch.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...