Chinook Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 This is not just an air mass-- it's a solid block of 60kt winds at 850mb, advecting towards the USA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted January 16, 2014 Author Share Posted January 16, 2014 from MPX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Impressive ground blizzard over Nodak. Amy reports from western MN? Clipper going to track through tomorrow night and sat, then another giant cold plunge possible in the medium range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted January 16, 2014 Author Share Posted January 16, 2014 Impressive ground blizzard over Nodak. Amy reports from western MN? Clipper going to track through tomorrow night and sat, then another giant cold plunge possible in the medium range. ground blizzard just got started a couple hrs ago...not all that bad here as the snowpack is crusted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 today: report of a 64mph non-thunderstorm wind gust at Winner, South Dakota. Wow. surface maps from Jan 16 (previously mentioned wind event) surface map from today- current wind event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Siberian Express Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 I'm getting to be so over this unrelenting cold and clipper train. Bring on spring! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxKevinM Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Definitely an annoying pattern sitting here in GFK :/ ... Every other day I've been looping through the 500mb hemispheric height anomalies. As a student, it has been really interesting to see the anomolies recycle themselves like being stuck in an loop if thats the correct way to describe it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 56 degrees warmer than yesterday up by Grand Forks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Continue blizzard/polar outbreak discussion here. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/42539-shut-down-type-storm-for-minnesota-on-125-126-blizzard/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted January 30, 2014 Author Share Posted January 30, 2014 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 817 PM CST WED JAN 29 2014 ...THURSDAY MORNING COMMUTE EXPECTED TO BE SEVERELY IMPACTED BY HEAVY SNOW... .A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AND QUICKLY EXIT THE REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HEAVY SNOW ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING SEVERAL INCHES DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE. THIS WILL BE A HIGH IMPACT EVENT WITH SNOW RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR POSSIBLE. DUE TO THE HIGH IMPACT NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM...A WINTER STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM THE TWIN CITIES METRO EASTWARD ACROSS MOST OF WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN WHERE THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL FALL. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED ELSEWHERE. MNZ051>053-059>063-066-068>070-WIZ014>016-023>025-027-301115- /O.NEW.KMPX.WS.W.0002.140130T1100Z-140130T1800Z/ SHERBURNE-ISANTI-CHISAGO-WRIGHT-HENNEPIN-ANOKA-RAMSEY-WASHINGTON- MCLEOD-CARVER-SCOTT-DAKOTA-POLK-BARRON-RUSK-ST. CROIX-PIERCE-DUNN- CHIPPEWA- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ELK RIVER...CAMBRIDGE...CENTER CITY... MONTICELLO...MINNEAPOLIS...BLAINE...ST. PAUL...STILLWATER... HUTCHINSON...CHASKA...SHAKOPEE...BURNSVILLE...AMERY... BALSAM LAKE...RICE LAKE...BARRON...LADYSMITH...HUDSON... NEW RICHMOND...RIVER FALLS...PRESCOTT...MENOMONIE...BOYCEVILLE... CHIPPEWA FALLS...BLOOMER 817 PM CST WED JAN 29 2014 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM TO NOON CST THURSDAY... * TIMING...SNOW WILL BEGIN AROUND 4 OR 5 AM AND QUICKLY BECOME HEAVY BY 6 AM. THE HEAVY SNOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE ENTIRE MORNING RUSH HOUR BEFORE TAPERING OFF IN THE MID TO LATE MORNING. * SNOW ACCUMULATION...4 TO 6 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS POSSIBLE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 817 PM CST WED JAN 29 2014 ...THURSDAY MORNING COMMUTE EXPECTED TO BE SEVERELY IMPACTED BY HEAVY SNOW... .A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AND QUICKLY EXIT THE REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HEAVY SNOW ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING SEVERAL INCHES DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE. THIS WILL BE A HIGH IMPACT EVENT WITH SNOW RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR POSSIBLE. DUE TO THE HIGH IMPACT NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM...A WINTER STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM THE TWIN CITIES METRO EASTWARD ACROSS MOST OF WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN WHERE THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL FALL. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED ELSEWHERE. MNZ051>053-059>063-066-068>070-WIZ014>016-023>025-027-301115- /O.NEW.KMPX.WS.W.0002.140130T1100Z-140130T1800Z/ SHERBURNE-ISANTI-CHISAGO-WRIGHT-HENNEPIN-ANOKA-RAMSEY-WASHINGTON- MCLEOD-CARVER-SCOTT-DAKOTA-POLK-BARRON-RUSK-ST. CROIX-PIERCE-DUNN- CHIPPEWA- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ELK RIVER...CAMBRIDGE...CENTER CITY... MONTICELLO...MINNEAPOLIS...BLAINE...ST. PAUL...STILLWATER... HUTCHINSON...CHASKA...SHAKOPEE...BURNSVILLE...AMERY... BALSAM LAKE...RICE LAKE...BARRON...LADYSMITH...HUDSON... NEW RICHMOND...RIVER FALLS...PRESCOTT...MENOMONIE...BOYCEVILLE... CHIPPEWA FALLS...BLOOMER 817 PM CST WED JAN 29 2014 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM TO NOON CST THURSDAY... * TIMING...SNOW WILL BEGIN AROUND 4 OR 5 AM AND QUICKLY BECOME HEAVY BY 6 AM. THE HEAVY SNOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE ENTIRE MORNING RUSH HOUR BEFORE TAPERING OFF IN THE MID TO LATE MORNING. * SNOW ACCUMULATION...4 TO 6 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS POSSIBLE. Looks like southern metro busted, but it verified everywhere else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Siberian Express Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 I ended up with 5.5, It sure did come down fast and furious, vis was down to almost nothing for a while this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Siberian Express Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 14 out of the last 15 days with below 0 temps, including the last 6. Propane truck came today...bill will be scary since I'm running very low on wood. Time for a pattern change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 This is the first truly legit CO Low I have seen impact parts of MN in possibly two years. A classic, curving track from the CO Front Range, SE toward the OK panhandle, then NE toward the WI/MN/Iowa border. A classic track for heavy snow in eastern MN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 19, 2014 Author Share Posted February 19, 2014 This is the first truly legit CO Low I have seen impact parts of MN in possibly two years. A classic, curving track from the CO Front Range, SE toward the OK panhandle, then NE toward the WI/MN/Iowa border. A classic track for heavy snow in eastern MN. 0Z GFS & UKMET Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 0Z GFS & UKMET The 00z Euro speeds the northern stream ahead quite a bit...which results in a weaker low overall. Oddly enough it would be one of the better solutions for most of southern and central MN. Looks like the 06z NAM is also taking the ECMWF route. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 The arctic outbreak depicted by the 18z GFS (verbatim) is really incredible for early March. 474 thicknesses touching the border near INL...with a 1052+ mb high coming down. If these modeled solutions hold, I wonder if some March monthly records could be in jeopardy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 Pretty excited about this CO low. These are the classic ones with a perfect track near the IA/MN/WI border for heavy snow over E MN. Top CIPS analog is a classic from 2006...one of two in a row I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 Pretty excited about this CO low. These are the classic ones with a perfect track near the IA/MN/WI border for heavy snow over E MN. Top CIPS analog is a classic from 2006...one of two in a row I believe. Baro....I think you might appreciate this. My snowfall forecast that I posted on the Minnesota Forecaster site: "Based off the very consistent Reg GEM, UKMET, coupled with tonight's run of the NAM ( which had ingested some wacky tabacy data earlier today) and the GFS. My snow fall totals are these. The far western metro 6-8 inches, the 169 corridor 7-10, and east of I35 10-12" . This is well supported by the RUC back up model which is a high resolution 24 hour model. By tomorrow night at 7pm it shows a wide area of 6-8" over the metro with simulated radar at the same time showing 30-37 dbz returns wide spread over the metro, which simply means the snowfall will still be ripping." I believe the areas just north of the metro my also warrant a Blizzard warning if the winds at 850-925 can mix down to the surface, it will be interesting to see the headlines tomorrow morning Also, one of best Mets this year as far as snow fall is Novak Weather. His latest video is here. He explains things well. He used to be a broadcast met. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VWhL2vV4zys Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 Baro....I think you might appreciate this. My snowfall forecast that I posted on the Minnesota Forecaster site: "Based off the very consistent Reg GEM, UKMET, coupled with tonight's run of the NAM ( which had ingested some wacky tabacy data earlier today) and the GFS. My snow fall totals are these. The far western metro 6-8 inches, the 169 corridor 7-10, and east of I35 10-12" . This is well supported by the RUC back up model which is a high resolution 24 hour model. By tomorrow night at 7pm it shows a wide area of 6-8" over the metro with simulated radar at the same time showing 30-37 dbz returns wide spread over the metro, which simply means the snowfall will still be ripping." I believe the areas just north of the metro my also warrant a Blizzard warning if the winds at 850-925 can mix down to the surface, it will be interesting to see the headlines tomorrow morning Also, one of best Mets this year as far as snow fall is Novak Weather. His latest video is here. He explains things well. He used to be a broadcast met. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VWhL2vV4zys I think that is a pretty reasonable forecast. Obviously this will not come close to matching the bigger classic storms as the N stream is moving too fast for the deformation zone to expand west...there will be a sharp delineation with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 I think that is a pretty reasonable forecast. Obviously this will not come close to matching the bigger classic storms as the N stream is moving too fast for the deformation zone to expand west...there will be a sharp delineation with this one. yes I agree that the mid level lows are not favorable to expand the deformation zone further west, but if it were it would be classic. This may happen yet in March Edit: BTW I'm known as Randyinchamplin on the Minnesota Forecaster site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 yes I agree that the mid level lows are not favorable to expand the deformation zone further west, but if it were it would be classic. This may happen yet in March Edit: BTW I'm known as Randyinchamplin on the Minnesota Forecaster site. Just glancing at things I think the dryslot is really moving ahead to the N at a rapid pace...the WCB is really being stretched rapidly. Still a good event, but it looks like most of the cities will end up slightly on the lower end of the higher forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 21, 2014 Author Share Posted February 21, 2014 PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 807 PM CST THU FEB 20 2014 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... 0748 PM SNOW GOODHUE 44.40N 92.62W 02/20/2014 M8.0 INCH GOODHUE MN PUBLIC 0754 PM SNOW WACONIA 44.85N 93.79W 02/20/2014 M7.0 INCH CARVER MN NWS EMPLOYEE UPDATED TOTAL 0806 PM SNOW MANKATO 44.17N 93.99W 02/20/2014 M6.0 INCH BLUE EARTH MN BROADCAST MEDIA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARYNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN807 PM CST THU FEB 20 2014..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON.....DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... 0748 PM SNOW GOODHUE 44.40N 92.62W02/20/2014 M8.0 INCH GOODHUE MN PUBLIC0754 PM SNOW WACONIA 44.85N 93.79W02/20/2014 M7.0 INCH CARVER MN NWS EMPLOYEE UPDATED TOTAL0806 PM SNOW MANKATO 44.17N 93.99W02/20/2014 M6.0 INCH BLUE EARTH MN BROADCAST MEDIA I am not going to complain, a true beauty and it is nice to see a legit CO low again. Now the fun begins with the NW winds and true blizzard. How much snow your way? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 Lovely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 21, 2014 Author Share Posted February 21, 2014 I am not going to complain, a true beauty and it is nice to see a legit CO low again. Now the fun begins with the NW winds and true blizzard. How much snow your way? Around 4" but it's a blizzard going on here...wind gusting to 50 at times. Awesome storm even though i was in the area of lower snow totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 24" on the ground at MSP, now in rarefied air. Only years with more snowcover (after 1938) were : 1982, 1967, 1951, 1965, 1962 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 Long-term snow totals from GFS. Things should be active in the North. Over 24" for the mid-Montana area, much of that falls at forecast hour 168-192, so I would not expect it to be perfect on the QPF or timing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Siberian Express Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Another Blizz warning for ya Prinz.....good luck. Is this a record for Blizzard warning for a winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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