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Northern Plains Discussion


prinsburg_wx

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Definitely an annoying pattern sitting here in GFK :/ ... Every other day I've been looping through the 500mb hemispheric height anomalies. As a student, it has been really interesting to see the anomolies recycle themselves like being stuck in an loop if thats the correct way to describe it.

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URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN

817 PM CST WED JAN 29 2014

...THURSDAY MORNING COMMUTE EXPECTED TO BE SEVERELY IMPACTED BY

HEAVY SNOW...

.A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA AND SOUTHERN

MINNESOTA EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AND QUICKLY EXIT THE REGION

THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HEAVY SNOW ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM

WILL BRING SEVERAL INCHES DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE. THIS WILL BE

A HIGH IMPACT EVENT WITH SNOW RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR

POSSIBLE.

DUE TO THE HIGH IMPACT NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM...A WINTER STORM

WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM THE TWIN CITIES METRO EASTWARD ACROSS

MOST OF WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN WHERE THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL

FALL. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED ELSEWHERE.

MNZ051>053-059>063-066-068>070-WIZ014>016-023>025-027-301115-

/O.NEW.KMPX.WS.W.0002.140130T1100Z-140130T1800Z/

SHERBURNE-ISANTI-CHISAGO-WRIGHT-HENNEPIN-ANOKA-RAMSEY-WASHINGTON-

MCLEOD-CARVER-SCOTT-DAKOTA-POLK-BARRON-RUSK-ST. CROIX-PIERCE-DUNN-

CHIPPEWA-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ELK RIVER...CAMBRIDGE...CENTER CITY...

MONTICELLO...MINNEAPOLIS...BLAINE...ST. PAUL...STILLWATER...

HUTCHINSON...CHASKA...SHAKOPEE...BURNSVILLE...AMERY...

BALSAM LAKE...RICE LAKE...BARRON...LADYSMITH...HUDSON...

NEW RICHMOND...RIVER FALLS...PRESCOTT...MENOMONIE...BOYCEVILLE...

CHIPPEWA FALLS...BLOOMER

817 PM CST WED JAN 29 2014

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM TO NOON CST

THURSDAY...

* TIMING...SNOW WILL BEGIN AROUND 4 OR 5 AM AND QUICKLY BECOME

HEAVY BY 6 AM. THE HEAVY SNOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE ENTIRE

MORNING RUSH HOUR BEFORE TAPERING OFF IN THE MID TO LATE

MORNING.

* SNOW ACCUMULATION...4 TO 6 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS

POSSIBLE.

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URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN

817 PM CST WED JAN 29 2014

...THURSDAY MORNING COMMUTE EXPECTED TO BE SEVERELY IMPACTED BY

HEAVY SNOW...

.A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA AND SOUTHERN

MINNESOTA EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AND QUICKLY EXIT THE REGION

THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HEAVY SNOW ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM

WILL BRING SEVERAL INCHES DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE. THIS WILL BE

A HIGH IMPACT EVENT WITH SNOW RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR

POSSIBLE.

DUE TO THE HIGH IMPACT NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM...A WINTER STORM

WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM THE TWIN CITIES METRO EASTWARD ACROSS

MOST OF WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN WHERE THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL

FALL. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED ELSEWHERE.

MNZ051>053-059>063-066-068>070-WIZ014>016-023>025-027-301115-

/O.NEW.KMPX.WS.W.0002.140130T1100Z-140130T1800Z/

SHERBURNE-ISANTI-CHISAGO-WRIGHT-HENNEPIN-ANOKA-RAMSEY-WASHINGTON-

MCLEOD-CARVER-SCOTT-DAKOTA-POLK-BARRON-RUSK-ST. CROIX-PIERCE-DUNN-

CHIPPEWA-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ELK RIVER...CAMBRIDGE...CENTER CITY...

MONTICELLO...MINNEAPOLIS...BLAINE...ST. PAUL...STILLWATER...

HUTCHINSON...CHASKA...SHAKOPEE...BURNSVILLE...AMERY...

BALSAM LAKE...RICE LAKE...BARRON...LADYSMITH...HUDSON...

NEW RICHMOND...RIVER FALLS...PRESCOTT...MENOMONIE...BOYCEVILLE...

CHIPPEWA FALLS...BLOOMER

817 PM CST WED JAN 29 2014

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM TO NOON CST

THURSDAY...

* TIMING...SNOW WILL BEGIN AROUND 4 OR 5 AM AND QUICKLY BECOME

HEAVY BY 6 AM. THE HEAVY SNOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE ENTIRE

MORNING RUSH HOUR BEFORE TAPERING OFF IN THE MID TO LATE

MORNING.

* SNOW ACCUMULATION...4 TO 6 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS

POSSIBLE.

 

Looks like southern metro busted, but it verified everywhere else.

post-999-0-77000000-1391134119_thumb.png

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  • 2 weeks later...

Pretty excited about this CO low. These are the classic ones with a perfect track near the IA/MN/WI border for heavy snow over E MN. Top CIPS analog is a classic from 2006...one of two in a row I believe.

 

Baro....I think you might appreciate this.  My snowfall forecast that I posted on the Minnesota Forecaster site:

 

"Based off the very consistent Reg GEM, UKMET, coupled with tonight's run of the NAM ( which had ingested some wacky tabacy data earlier today) and the GFS. My snow fall totals are these. The far western metro 6-8 inches, the 169 corridor 7-10, and east of I35 10-12" . This is well supported by the RUC back up model which is a high resolution 24 hour model. By tomorrow night at 7pm it shows a wide area of 6-8" over the metro with simulated radar at the same time showing 30-37 dbz returns wide spread over the metro, which simply means the snowfall will still be ripping."

 

I believe the areas just north of the metro my also warrant a Blizzard warning if the winds at 850-925 can mix down to the surface, it will be interesting to see the headlines tomorrow morning

 

Also, one of best Mets this year as far as snow fall is Novak Weather.  His latest video is here. He explains things well.  He used to be a broadcast met.

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VWhL2vV4zys

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Baro....I think you might appreciate this.  My snowfall forecast that I posted on the Minnesota Forecaster site:

 

"Based off the very consistent Reg GEM, UKMET, coupled with tonight's run of the NAM ( which had ingested some wacky tabacy data earlier today) and the GFS. My snow fall totals are these. The far western metro 6-8 inches, the 169 corridor 7-10, and east of I35 10-12" . This is well supported by the RUC back up model which is a high resolution 24 hour model. By tomorrow night at 7pm it shows a wide area of 6-8" over the metro with simulated radar at the same time showing 30-37 dbz returns wide spread over the metro, which simply means the snowfall will still be ripping."

 

I believe the areas just north of the metro my also warrant a Blizzard warning if the winds at 850-925 can mix down to the surface, it will be interesting to see the headlines tomorrow morning

 

Also, one of best Mets this year as far as snow fall is Novak Weather.  His latest video is here. He explains things well.  He used to be a broadcast met.

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VWhL2vV4zys

I think that is a pretty reasonable forecast. Obviously this will not come close to matching the bigger classic storms as the N stream is moving too fast for the deformation zone to expand west...there will be a sharp delineation with this one. 

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I think that is a pretty reasonable forecast. Obviously this will not come close to matching the bigger classic storms as the N stream is moving too fast for the deformation zone to expand west...there will be a sharp delineation with this one. 

 

yes I agree that the mid level lows are not favorable to expand the deformation zone further west, but if it were it would be classic.  This may happen yet in March

 

Edit:  BTW I'm known as Randyinchamplin on the Minnesota Forecaster site.

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yes I agree that the mid level lows are not favorable to expand the deformation zone further west, but if it were it would be classic.  This may happen yet in March

 

Edit:  BTW I'm known as Randyinchamplin on the Minnesota Forecaster site.

 

 

Just glancing at things I think the dryslot is really moving ahead to the N at a rapid pace...the WCB is really being stretched rapidly. Still a good event, but it looks like most of the cities will end up slightly on the lower end of the higher forecasts.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN

807 PM CST THU FEB 20 2014

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...

..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....


0748 PM SNOW GOODHUE 44.40N 92.62W

02/20/2014 M8.0 INCH GOODHUE MN PUBLIC

0754 PM SNOW WACONIA 44.85N 93.79W

02/20/2014 M7.0 INCH CARVER MN NWS EMPLOYEE

UPDATED TOTAL

0806 PM SNOW MANKATO 44.17N 93.99W

02/20/2014 M6.0 INCH BLUE EARTH MN BROADCAST MEDIA

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARYNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN807 PM CST THU FEB 20 2014..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON.....DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
0748 PM     SNOW             GOODHUE                 44.40N 92.62W02/20/2014  M8.0 INCH        GOODHUE            MN   PUBLIC0754 PM     SNOW             WACONIA                 44.85N 93.79W02/20/2014  M7.0 INCH        CARVER             MN   NWS EMPLOYEE            UPDATED TOTAL0806 PM     SNOW             MANKATO                 44.17N 93.99W02/20/2014  M6.0 INCH        BLUE EARTH         MN   BROADCAST MEDIA

 

 

 

I am not going to complain, a true beauty and it is nice to see a legit CO low again. Now the fun begins with the NW winds and true blizzard. How much snow your way?

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