Geos Posted May 7, 2013 Share Posted May 7, 2013 Ice out on Lake Minnetonka bordering on record breaking! http://minnesota.cbslocal.com/2013/04/17/ice-out-on-lake-minnetonka-bordering-on-record-breaking/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted May 7, 2013 Share Posted May 7, 2013 Ice out on Lake Minnetonka bordering on record breaking! http://minnesota.cbslocal.com/2013/04/17/ice-out-on-lake-minnetonka-bordering-on-record-breaking/ Ice-out on Minnetonka was May 1st/2nd, depending on whether you trust the Sheriffs office or Freshwater Society. All-time record is May 5th from the 1850s. This year basically matched the modern record of May 2nd. http://freshwater.org/ice-out-dates-for-lake-minnetonka/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZackH Posted May 11, 2013 Share Posted May 11, 2013 Here's Grand Forks and Oslo, MN video of the snowmelt flooding this year. Not impressive compared to some of the floods of years past, but thought you guys may want to see it. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lmbr_YeooS8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizznd Posted May 12, 2013 Share Posted May 12, 2013 Here's Grand Forks and Oslo, MN video of the snowmelt flooding this year. Not impressive compared to some of the floods of years past, but thought you guys may want to see it. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lmbr_YeooS8 Yeah sure was a tough forecast this year from the RFC. Models have a lot of tweeking left in these unusual events such as this years late melt.....way more water soaked in then thought... RFC was thinking maybe 30 pct soak in and 70 pct runoff -- it was the opposite. So basically a non event. The water levels this year at GF-EGF doesnt harm anyone.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZackH Posted May 13, 2013 Share Posted May 13, 2013 Oh yah, I don't envy the job of hydro modelers. We ran some models in our graduate hydro class to predict the crest in GFK... way off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted May 13, 2013 Share Posted May 13, 2013 How about those record high temperatures? With T850s possibly reaching 25C by 00Z today and 28C tomorrow in North Platte, today's record high of 91 (1932) should easily be broken, and tomorrow's record of 95 (1948) could very-well fall as well. Winds are out of the west for much of western NE, SD, KS and eastern CO and WY, so downsloping and adiabatic warming are likely contributing to the (dry) heat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted May 13, 2013 Share Posted May 13, 2013 Was just looking at the temperatures in SD. Rapid City hit 89° today, Pierre at 91°. Rapid City 3° shy of the 1955 record. Pierre record is pretty impressive for the date: 99°, 1941. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 14, 2013 Share Posted May 14, 2013 Snow at 189 hours on the GFS, International Falls, Lake of the Woods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted May 14, 2013 Share Posted May 14, 2013 North Platte broke the record with 93 today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxKevinM Posted May 14, 2013 Share Posted May 14, 2013 Eastern North Dakota skipped spring and hit a very windy 90o in Grand Forks and Fargo 93o! I think I'm finally out of winter mode... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 14, 2013 Share Posted May 14, 2013 Hey the RAP has 104 degrees for the Missouri River (Nebraska) tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted May 14, 2013 Share Posted May 14, 2013 Absolutely incredible stuff. In the 30s a few days ago, now the Twin Cities (my hometown area) pushing into the mid 90s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted May 14, 2013 Share Posted May 14, 2013 Sioux City, IA was at 104 earlier! With 30+ mph winds. A lot warmer than most places, I guess that area really gets maximized heating with these downsloping winds? Look like their May record is 105 from 1934. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted May 14, 2013 Share Posted May 14, 2013 Absolutely incredible stuff. In the 30s a few days ago, now the Twin Cities (my hometown area) pushing into the mid 90s. 100 in Owatonna, 11 days after their 16" of snow. My brother says that there are still parking lot piles of snow in places around there. I told him to get a picture of a pile with the car thermometer in the shot too. I'll post it here if he does it. Sioux City, IA was at 104 earlier! With 30+ mph winds. A lot warmer than most places, I guess that area really gets maximized heating with these downsloping winds? Look like their May record is 105 from 1934. They got the May record with 106°. What a whiplash from non-spring to summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted May 14, 2013 Share Posted May 14, 2013 100 in Owatonna, 11 days after their 16" of snow. My brother says that there are still parking lot piles of snow in places around there. I told him to get a picture of a pile with the car thermometer in the shot too. I'll post it here if he does it. They got the May record with 106°. What a whiplash from non-spring to summer. That 1934 heatwave was the king of all May heatwaves in the plains/upper Midwest: MSP: 106 St. Cloud: 105 Omaha: 103 Eau Claire: 107 Des Moines: 105 Fargo: 104 Topeka: 103 Madison: 101 Pierre: 105 Bismarck: 102 This one is definitely impressive as it is occurring 2 weeks earlier, but the 1934 one had much more widespread extreme records. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted May 14, 2013 Share Posted May 14, 2013 incredible, but with the models way over doing the dews, this was a good possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted May 14, 2013 Share Posted May 14, 2013 From the MPX afternoon AFD, interesting indeed MANKATO WENT FROM 84 TO 97 WITHIN AN HOUROF THE FRONT PASSING! NOT ONLY DOES IT LOOK LIKE MOST LOCATIONSOUTSIDE OF CENTRAL MN AND WRN WI WILL SET DAILY RECORD HIGHS...BUTTHE TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT DOWN SOUTH...BASED ON INFO FROM THE STATECLIMATOLOGIST WILL ALSO BREAK THE RECORD HIGH IN MN FOR THISDAY...THOUGH A DEFINITIVE ANSWER ON THAT WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTILTOMORROW AFTER WE GOT ALL OF THE COOP INFORMATION IN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted May 16, 2013 Share Posted May 16, 2013 Using NOAA's monthly climate rankings, I did a crude approximation of North Dakota's March/April ranking. I think 1899 is very safe as the coldest (that March was epic). 2013 will probably be in the 2nd to 5th range. Maybe 4th behind '50 and '51? North Dakota finishes with the coldest April on record, and the 2nd coldest March/April combo. Nationwide, Mar-Apr was the 33rd coldest overall and coldest since 1996. What a whipsaw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted May 16, 2013 Share Posted May 16, 2013 North Dakota finishes with the coldest April on record, and the 2nd coldest March/April combo. Nationwide, Mar-Apr was the 33rd coldest overall and coldest since 1996. What a whipsaw ND Mar-Apr.png From second warmest last year to second coldest this year. Crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 17, 2013 Share Posted May 17, 2013 Anybody chasing in South Dakota today? If nothing else, South Dakota could get 1 to 4" of rain in these next days. Maybe some of the early focus of storms will be around Sheridan, Gillette, and Casper. There's sort of a dryline in Wyoming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted June 18, 2013 Share Posted June 18, 2013 From the SPC disco for the day 3 outlook. things appear to be in a flux as of tonight, however a moderate and possibly a high end event may be on the horizon over the Northern Plains and Upper Mississippi valley. We will have to see how things shake out, but this could get interesting. The Nam brings 3000 cape close to MPX and develops a large area of QPF Thursday evening, I don't know about the cape from the Euro, but it also develops a area of QPF near MPX, sometime after 0z Friday. The GFS appears to be further north. " ...NRN PLAINS...UPPER MIDWEST... GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED DISCREPANCIES IN THE HANDLING OF THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN...CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR HIGHLIGHTING SIGNIFICANT SEVERE OR HIGHER COVERAGE PROBABILITIES ATTM. IT APPEARS THAT AN MCS WILL PROBABLY BE ONGOING AT 12Z/THU INVOF MT/ND/SASKATCHEWAN BORDER. THIS MAY CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD WITHIN MODERATE MID-LEVEL WLY FLOW AND PERHAPS REDEVELOP/INTENSIFY E/SEWD INTO THE DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE WITH ALL MODES OF SEVERE POSSIBLE GIVEN A MODERATE TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS. A STOUT CAPPING INVERSION AND EXPANDING EML SHOULD LIMIT DIURNAL DEVELOPMENT WITH SRN EXTENT ALONG ANY OUTFLOW AND CONFINE ACTIVITY MAINLY TO PARTS OF ND AND NWRN MN. LOW-LEVEL WAA WILL STRENGTHEN THU NIGHT WITH A ROBUST LLJ FROM THE SRN PLAINS TO THE MID-MO VALLEY. ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE CAPPING INVERSION...EITHER A CONTINUATION OF DIURNAL CONVECTION OR DEVELOPMENT OF A RENEWED MCS APPEARS POSSIBLE WITH ATTENDANT SEVERE WIND/HAIL THREATS."I agree that confidence is low, but it's not zero. I don't know what the author considers low, but I would put the moderate chance at 30% and a high end event at 10% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted June 18, 2013 Share Posted June 18, 2013 Anybody chasing in South Dakota today? If nothing else, South Dakota could get 1 to 4" of rain in these next days. Maybe some of the early focus of storms will be around Sheridan, Gillette, and Casper. There's sort of a dryline in Wyoming. while SD may be so-so, I would say the next couple of days the best chasing will be between the yellowhead highway and i-90/94 in montana today, and the yellowhead hwy in SK into YDN and YBR for the northern edge tomorrow, with the southern edge in southern ND. day 3, north of i-80 in IA all the way to northwestern Ontario south of tch-16 and Armstrong, including maybe t-bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZackH Posted June 18, 2013 Share Posted June 18, 2013 while SD may be so-so, I would say the next couple of days the best chasing will be between the yellowhead highway and i-90/94 in montana today, and the yellowhead hwy in SK into YDN and YBR for the northern edge tomorrow, with the southern edge in southern ND. day 3, north of i-80 in IA all the way to northwestern Ontario south of tch-16 and Armstrong, including maybe t-bay. I believe his post about SD was from last month. Looked like it was from 5/17... and I remember that there was a threat in SD that day because I chased it... didn't do much, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted June 18, 2013 Share Posted June 18, 2013 I believe his post about SD was from last month. Looked like it was from 5/17... and I remember that there was a threat in SD that day because I chased it... didn't do much, though. sorry about that. forgot to read the date. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZackH Posted June 18, 2013 Share Posted June 18, 2013 sorry about that. forgot to read the date. Lol, no worries, I almost did a double take as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derek30 Posted June 18, 2013 Share Posted June 18, 2013 I would be wary about the NAM progressing things east so quickly. It is definitely the outlier with the GFS, Euro, and others taking their time ejecting the various features. At this point, I think western/central North Dakota up into southwestern Manitoba will be the place to be on Thursday afternoon before things shift east later. Friday could also be a decent severe weather event for eastern ND/western MN. I do like my position here in S MB for some good storms in the coming days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZackH Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 According to mesoanalysis, DCAPE values could be fairly impressive tonight when the line of storms is approaching eastern ND (in the range of 1000-1400 J/kg). If storms can organize into an MCS and survive as the sun goes down we could see some fairly impressive winds here in the eastern part of the state. Hoping for some big winds and some lightning shot opportunities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AgeeWx Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 Non-hydrostatic models really light up the eastern half of the state like Zack mentioned. I'd love a good light show tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AgeeWx Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 Public reporting a Tornado touched down outside of Minot just a few minutes ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZackH Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 Not much shear but the non supercell tornado parameter was pretty nice around that time. All that instability, I would bet it was a landspout. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.