prinsburg_wx Posted October 1, 2012 Share Posted October 1, 2012 First significant snow of the season possible wed night/thu for parts of e ND & nw MN. HPC paints 4"+ for those areas...even a small area of 8" near GFK. The rest of the region will get much colder later this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted October 1, 2012 Share Posted October 1, 2012 I was waiting for you our someone else to get this going Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted October 2, 2012 Author Share Posted October 2, 2012 I was waiting for you our someone else to get this going From AFDFGF...they don't seem too enthused yet on the event. HPC WWD HAS PREDICTED 4+ INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN VALLEY AND NWMINNESOTA. OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF FALLS...MODELS HAVE OVERDONE PRECIPITATION AND SNOWFALL ON EARLY SEASON EVENTS SUCH AS THIS...MAKING CONFIDENCE EVEN LOWER AND ALTHOUGH THE NAM HAS BEEN AN OUTLIER...THE DRIER SOLUTIONS HAVE BEEN CORRECT MORE OFTEN THAN NOT. THUS...IF WE DO GET ANY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW I THINK IT WILL BE IN THE 09Z TO 15Z THURSDAY TIMEFRAME...WARM GROUND TEMPS WILL MELT THE MAJORITY OF IT...AND ANY SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION WILL RESULT FROM HIGHER RATES DUE TO BANDING. CURRENT SNOW GRIDS SHOWING UP TO AN INCH ACROSS THE NORTH...CALCULATED WITH ABOUT AN 8 TO 1 RATIO AS THIS WILL BE A WET SNOW IF IT OCCURS. REGARDLESS...THURSDAY WILL BE WET AND WINDY AS COLD ADVECTION PUTS WINDS BACK IN THE 20 TO 25 MPH RANGE WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 40S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted October 2, 2012 Share Posted October 2, 2012 From AFDFGF...they don't seem too enthused yet on the event. Purely from a synoptic/dynamic setup, I am not either. Very difficult to form a well developed deformation band given the strongly positive tilt longwave pattern.It very well may wrap up, but a well developed deformation band will be difficult...not even mentioning the poor spacing from the previous large upper low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted October 2, 2012 Author Share Posted October 2, 2012 Purely from a synoptic/dynamic setup, I am not either. Very difficult to form a well developed deformation band given the strongly positive tilt longwave pattern.It very well may wrap up, but a well developed deformation band will be difficult...not even mentioning the poor spacing from the previous large upper low. I agree and most likely on how this will play out...fwiw the wacky 18z NAM gives GFK 7.8" snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted October 2, 2012 Share Posted October 2, 2012 I agree and most likely on how this will play out...fwiw the wacky 18z NAM gives GFK 7.8" snow I am not sure what it is really doing, 00z doing the same thing. Highly unlikely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted October 2, 2012 Author Share Posted October 2, 2012 I am not sure what it is really doing, 00z doing the same thing. Highly unlikely. 0Z NAM looks awesome for GFK and points north & east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted October 2, 2012 Share Posted October 2, 2012 0Z GFS east of the 0Z NAM with heaviest precip. This thing looks like it gets more organized once it is in Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted October 2, 2012 Author Share Posted October 2, 2012 0Z GFS east of the 0Z NAM with heaviest precip. This thing looks like it gets more organized once it is in Canada. 0z ukie is south...northern half of MN gets a decent hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted October 2, 2012 Share Posted October 2, 2012 0z ukie is south...northern half of MN gets a decent hit. You arent kidding, well looks like the trend tonight is for a se shift. Will it hold? Who knows I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted October 2, 2012 Author Share Posted October 2, 2012 You arent kidding, well looks like the trend tonight is for a se shift. Will it hold? Who knows I guess. 0Z CMC looks good for c & n MN...rain to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted October 2, 2012 Share Posted October 2, 2012 Euro has the low dropping down out of Canada into the Northern States. This looks better than the GFS hanging the low in Canada then moving the low East. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MnWeatherman Posted October 2, 2012 Share Posted October 2, 2012 I find it bold for the HPC to put out a 40% 4+ probability when there's a great deal of uncertainty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iastfan112 Posted October 2, 2012 Share Posted October 2, 2012 Roommate from Maryland is a little freaked out. His words, "Snow in October, really? You gotta be kidding me!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted October 2, 2012 Share Posted October 2, 2012 i just took a look at this myself, as I have to come up with something for my company's blog this sunday and was looking for something interesting to talk about. and i happened to stumble on this storm. I'm thinking the main snow area is somewhere in northwestern Ontario as a first glance, especially away from lake superior. but the tracks of snowfall are interesting. I definitely will be keeping an eye on this one as things develop. mind you the following are broad extrapolations. Nam goes YWG > YRL > YPL GFS goes WDV > WYW > YYU Canadian global goes potentially FAR > INL > YHD and the euro is looking like JMS > GFK > ROX > YQK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted October 2, 2012 Author Share Posted October 2, 2012 i just took a look at this myself, as I have to come up with something for my company's blog this sunday and was looking for something interesting to talk about. and i happened to stumble on this storm. I'm thinking the main snow area is somewhere in northwestern Ontario as a first glance, especially away from lake superior. but the tracks of snowfall are interesting. I definitely will be keeping an eye on this one as things develop. mind you the following are broad extrapolations. Nam goes YWG > YRL > YPL GFS goes WDV > WYW > YYU Canadian global goes potentially FAR > INL > YHD and the euro is looking like JMS > GFK > ROX > YQK AFDDLH...EXTENDED...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY... MAIN ITEM OF INTEREST THIS PERIOD IS CYCLOGENESIS ASSOCIATED WITH AMPLIFYING NRN BRANCH OF WESTERLIES. MDL SUITE STILL HAS DIFFERENCES WITH EVOLUTION OF SFC LOW AND SPEED OF UPPER TROF. EC HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT THAT SYSTEM WOULD INITIALLY BE SLOWER IN ITS DEVELOPMENT AND THEN TRACK ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF SOLUTIONS. IT HAS MAINTAINED THAT RELATIONSHIP WITH OTHER MDLS BASED ON THE LATEST 00Z CYCLE. THE ACTUAL TRACK OF THE SFC LOW ACROSS THE CWA THURSDAY IS STILL UNCERTAIN HOWEVER THE GFS APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER WITH ITS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE/EASTWARD TRACK. NAM/EC BLEND LOOKS DECENT AND THIS WOULD THEN FOCUS HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACROSS NWRN QUADRANT OF MN ZONES. REGARDLESS OF VARIANCE IN MDL SOLUTIONS...THERE IS FAIRLY STRONG CONSENSUS THAT A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RIDE ACROSS THE WRN GT LAKES THUR/FRI WITH AN AREA OF MDT/HEAVY SNOW POTENTIAL FOCUSED ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST. MOST LIKELY OPPORTUNITY FOR SUFFICIENT COLD AIR DEPTH AND DGZ/OMEGA COUPLET WOULD BE THUR NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY NORTH AND WEST OF GRAND RAPIDS TO CRANE LAKE VICINITY. HOWEVER...STILL ENOUGH TIME AND DIFFERENCE BETWEEN MDLS TO BE A BIT WARY OF TRUMPETING THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL FOR THE CWA. AFDFGF... MODEL CONSENSUS STARTS TO FALL OFF THE CLIFF BY AROUND 48 HOURS OUT. BY 12Z THURSDAY...THE PLACEMENT OF THE SFC LOW CENTER RANGES FROM WISCONSIN TO INTERNATIONAL FALLS TO FERGUS FALLS. THE GFS IS MOST PROGRESSIVE...WITH THE MAIN PRECIP BAND MOVING EAST OF THE CWA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ONLY SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ON THURSDAY. THE ECMWF AND NAM ON THE OTHER HAND...ARE MUCH SLOWER AND STRONGER WITH THE SYSTEM. THEY BOTH WRAP THE SFC LOW UP JUST TO OUR EAST...PUTTING THE CWA IN THE BEST DEFORMATION ZONE ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. THE ECMWF IN PARTICULAR HAS INSANE AMOUNTS OF QPF RIGHT OVER GRAND FORKS. THE GEM IS SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF AND NAM...BUT FURTHER SOUTH. GIVEN THAT THE GFS IS AN OUTLIER...LEANED TOWARDS THE SLOWER AND WETTER SOLUTIONS AND INCREASED POPS...MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN CWA THURSDAY. THE NEXT QUESTION WILL BE PRECIP TYPE. THE NAM AND ECMWF BOTH DROP 925MB TEMPS DOWN BELOW ZERO BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THURSDAY. TEMPS ACROSS CANADA ARE NOT VERY COLD...BUT SOME DYNAMIC COOLING IS POSSIBLE AS THE SYSTEM WRAPS UP. SREF PROBABILITIES OF PRECIP TYPE HAVE SOME SNOW STARTING TO MIX IN AFTER 06Z THURSDAY. WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF SNOW MIXING IN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING ON THURSDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF STAYING ALL RAIN IN THE FAR SOUTH. THE NAM AND ECMWF...WITH THE COMMA HEAD OF THE LOW CONTINUING OVER THE CWA FOR QUITE A WHILE...HAVE VERY LARGE SNOW TOTALS. IN FACT...WITH THE QPF...LOW TEMPS AND STRONG WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW...IF THE ECMWF VERIFIES CONDITIONS WILL BE NEAR BLIZZARD THURSDAY. WILL HOLD OFF ON GOING THAT CRAZY...BUT THINK THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIP POSSIBLE TO BRING SOME ACCUMULATION DESPITE WARM SFC TEMPS. INCLUDED SOME 2 TO 4 INCH ACCUMS MAINLY IN THE NORTH CENTRAL TO NORTHEASTERN CWA FOR THE TIME BEING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted October 2, 2012 Share Posted October 2, 2012 12z model roundup now has most of the consensus a bit further south from near JMS/GFK/FAR to INL and YHD , except the more dynamic NAM. and if that verifies, it would depend on the rain/snow line that actually sets up for the snow amounts. and given how warm lake superior and lake nipigon are as well as most of the larger MN lakes, it'll probably be a question up north of how much actually sticks, not whether we get it in a dynamic and/or visibility range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted October 2, 2012 Share Posted October 2, 2012 Toss the NAM, not sure where it is getting its deep solutions or 2+" qpf from. 12z ECMWF shifted back to a more reasonable solution given the setup. Snow is likely across portions of eastern Nodak through N MN with a favored track for 2-3"+ across N central MN. Thermals look suspect elsewhere, especially farther south. While colder farther NW across Grand Forks, etc., I just don't see this storm wrapping up as intensely as NAM suggests. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted October 2, 2012 Share Posted October 2, 2012 Roommate from Maryland is a little freaked out. His words, "Snow in October, really? You gotta be kidding me!" How are things going up there in GFK? I am glad we have a couple new folks up there on the boards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted October 2, 2012 Share Posted October 2, 2012 Toss the NAM, not sure where it is getting its deep solutions or 2+" qpf from. 12z ECMWF shifted back to a more reasonable solution given the setup. Snow is likely across portions of eastern Nodak through N MN with a favored track for 2-3"+ across N central MN. Thermals look suspect elsewhere, especially farther south. While colder farther NW across Grand Forks, etc., I just don't see this storm wrapping up as intensely as NAM suggests. that's what i am thinking, unless i see a big change quickly. GFS/euro solution looking best attm, imho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted October 2, 2012 Share Posted October 2, 2012 looking at the 18z NAM out now, and Wow, the nam is seeming like it's going "all in" with its scenario, giving top snowfall potential for GFK, JMS, and YWG as well as areas north of YRL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted October 2, 2012 Share Posted October 2, 2012 THe hi-res WRF guidance (SREF) and NAM all seem to be simulating something nothing else is. Seems they are hinting at strong feedback via relatively stout frontogenesis enhancing the synoptic storm. My question is where all the moisture for latent processes is coming from. SREF 12 hr probs of 1", 4", 8", 12" snow over 12 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted October 2, 2012 Share Posted October 2, 2012 Should be worth noting the SREF was revamped a couple months ago...ditching the ETA and RSM models with all WRF-NMM and WRF-ARW perturbations. Interesting to see how they fare this winter...and what new biases develop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted October 2, 2012 Share Posted October 2, 2012 Every single SREF run is blowing up that frontogenetic band in the NW quad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted October 2, 2012 Author Share Posted October 2, 2012 18z RGEM came in wetter & further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted October 2, 2012 Share Posted October 2, 2012 THe hi-res WRF guidance (SREF) and NAM all seem to be simulating something nothing else is. Seems they are hinting at strong feedback via relatively stout frontogenesis enhancing the synoptic storm. My question is where all the moisture for latent processes is coming from. SREF 12 hr probs of 1", 4", 8", 12" snow over 12 hours. probably from the warm and wide open Lake Superior and Hudson Bay as well as maybe a bit from the Manitoba Lakes. i don't know if they should be feeding back that much. But they are your most likely moisture sources here, given that gulf is not really selling too much to this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iastfan112 Posted October 2, 2012 Share Posted October 2, 2012 GFS definitely went in the NAM's direction on the 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iastfan112 Posted October 2, 2012 Share Posted October 2, 2012 How are things going up there in GFK? I am glad we have a couple new folks up there on the boards. Going well, like all of my classes except Calculus. Especially depressing since there's still a lot of math left for me to take. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted October 2, 2012 Share Posted October 2, 2012 Yeah the 18z GFS came in much better for a good snow event...closes off the mid-level wave, stronger sfc low obviously and much better looking deformation zone on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted October 2, 2012 Share Posted October 2, 2012 I've been keeping tabs on this storm as well. Just fun to see snow potential again in the Midwest, seems far NW Minnesota is the most likely spot imo. While it's hard to think that this storm will wrap up and intensify as much as the NAM and SREF are suggesting, the trend has been a bit NW overall, and wouldn't be surprised to see further minor adjustments NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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