Continued Cold in Northern Europe

[Radders]

Saw this when looking at some of the european guidance - Boy this is an impressive bomb forming from a PV dropping into the UK from the north. I think it is safe to say some blizzard conditions will be experienced somewhere in the British Isles

[varicweather]

Here it comes....

http://sat24.com/

[am19psu]

There is going to be a ton of snow across France and Germany. Southern Germany might pick up a widespread area of 18"

[nzucker]

This thread makes a good case for the forums to have special "read-only" threads that can only feature posts from professional meteorologists. I loathe having to sort through all of the garbage to find the valid points made by the experts on the forums.

Look at how cold the 12z ECM initialized the polar low, definitely some areas of -25C temperatures under that. Sort of becoming a recurring pattern on the backside of the monster block...first image is today, next one is Day 5.

[marsman]

The old-timers here are already saying how unprecidented this weather has been. Town salt and plow budgets are already in jeopardy. This far north, the sun angle doesn't help much either, when it rarely does come out. I saw the sun on Monday or Tuesday for the first time in 2 weeks.

DWD (Germany NWS) forecast through Friday morning is calling for about 10-20cm (4-8"), and about 30cm (12") in the hills. A heavy snow warning with blowing snow is up for most of western Germany. Further north towards Frankfurt, warnings of winds up to 65kph (40mph) are expected as the storm moves through, I can only believe that wind will move south.

Will be great for the cross-country skiers in the area.

Giggity!!

[A-L-E-X]

There is going to be a ton of snow across France and Germany. Southern Germany might pick up a widespread area of 18"

Is it true that this is one of the coldest and snowiest winters theyve had since the little ice age?

[ayuud]

The old-timers here are already saying how unprecidented this weather has been. Town salt and plow budgets are already in jeopardy. This far north, the sun angle doesn't help much either, when it rarely does come out. I saw the sun on Monday or Tuesday for the first time in 2 weeks.

DWD (Germany NWS) forecast through Friday morning is calling for about 10-20cm (4-8"), and about 30cm (12") in the hills. A heavy snow warning with blowing snow is up for most of western Germany. Further north towards Frankfurt, warnings of winds up to 65kph (40mph) are expected as the storm moves through, I can only believe that wind will move south.

Will be great for the cross-country skiers in the area.

Giggity!!

Enjoy!!!!!!!!

[Radders]

As a Brit who suffered a decade of non-winters from the mid 90s before I moved to the US, I am happy for them. Enjoy!!

[nzucker]

Congrats on the big winter to all the Europeans! European snow lovers suffered endlessly in the 90s and early 00s but are getting payback with a great winter in 08-09, an historic winter in 09-10, and another wonderful snowy start to Winter 10-11. Very impressive pattern with strong polar lows descending behind the Greenland block.

[Radders]

Congrats on the big winter to all the Europeans! European snow lovers suffered endlessly in the 90s and early 00s but are getting payback with a great winter in 08-09, an historic winter in 09-10, and another wonderful snowy start to Winter 10-11. Very impressive pattern with strong polar lows descending behind the Greenland block.

Yeah. I had pretty much given up. All of us just thought snowy winters were the thing of the past.

For potential snow in the UK, there is really nothing better than those potent polar lows dropping in from the north - the air is so unstable and with the relatively warm waters surrounding the UK you get small areas of low pressure that just pop up and are very difficult to forecast in terms of their location. Even so, typically snow can still be really hit and miss with where the showers form but I remember the best snowfall rates I have witnessed in those showers, even if they are brief. A bit like lake effect I guess. Just huge amounts of instability.

[nzucker]

Yeah. I had pretty much given up. All of us just thought snowy winters were the thing of the past.

For potential snow in the UK, there is really nothing better than those potent polar lows dropping in from the north - the air is so unstable and with the relatively warm waters surrounding the UK you get small areas of low pressure that just pop up and are very difficult to forecast in terms of their location. Even so, typically snow can still be really hit and miss with where the showers form but I remember the best snowfall rates I have witnessed in those showers, even if they are brief. A bit like lake effect I guess. Just huge amounts of instability.

Interesting thoughts...I've never been to Britain myself, but my mom lived outside London for six years in the 1970s working as a French teacher. She said it hardly ever snowed during her six years in Surrey, just occasional flurries and not particularly cold either; I guess the great European winters like 62-63 had passed by that point. Many people believed it was a result of global warming, either directly warming the climate or causing a +NAO pattern that keeps maritime flow moving into Britain. Although global warming is still around and a serious threat, it doesn't seem to have the expected effect on the NAO as the NAO has been historically negative since Summer 2008. All of Europe is benefiting from this pattern.

It seems the North Sea can cause something similar to our lake effect with the cold air from polar lows driving over the relatively mild SSTs and creating instability. The Adriatic Sea can also produce a similar effect in Le Marche and Italy's Appennini Mountains when NE winds bring cold air over the warm Adriatic, dumping feet of snow at the coast. Apparently in this cold outbreak, Le Marche has had a foot of snow down to the coast and several feet in the higher elevations. This current polar low is going to be incredibly intense...it's a 498dm low and originated with -25C 850s which have moderated some but not that much considering the change in latitude. The crazy thing is that the 0z ECM brings down another polar low, this one even colder, in the Sunday/Monday timeframe. Will be fascinating to watch as it's an incredibly amplified pattern with the west-based Greenland block and a huge trough forming ahead of that blocking ridge.

[kwt]

Well the 1970s were abit like the late 90s early 00s, there really was slim pickings. The snowy periods were from say 39-69, then we went through a poor phase during the 70s, we had a severe winter in 78-79 that put us back into a short period of say 8 winters that often had great cold spells, though none of the winters were a patch on 62-63, then we've had another spell since 88-2008 where the winters were often poor, only 90-91 and 95-96 really stand out at all, and even those were only average type winters in the 79-87 period...

The last 2 winters were a great blast from the past, and this December is looking like not just being memorable but possibly legendary...

[Radders]

For those interested in watching this evolve, below is a link to a really good site that I used to follow in the UK (this particular link is for latest ECMWF, that nzucker was referring to regarding the next polar low dropping in on Monday) . Actually, I think the owner of this site sometimes posts here, at least he did at Eastern.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=ecm;sess=

Cool stuff.

[marsman]

Picked up about 4", but the winds never came through. Elevation played a big role in the area - 500' higher in the hills had close to a foot.

[A-L-E-X]

Well the 1970s were abit like the late 90s early 00s, there really was slim pickings. The snowy periods were from say 39-69, then we went through a poor phase during the 70s, we had a severe winter in 78-79 that put us back into a short period of say 8 winters that often had great cold spells, though none of the winters were a patch on 62-63, then we've had another spell since 88-2008 where the winters were often poor, only 90-91 and 95-96 really stand out at all, and even those were only average type winters in the 79-87 period...

The last 2 winters were a great blast from the past, and this December is looking like not just being memorable but possibly legendary...

Im shocked 1995-96 wasnt a great winter there as the NAO was very negative for most of the winter. 00-01 and 03-04 were also like that.

[kwt]

1995-1996 was decent but nothing outlandish, December was pretty cold though compared to average (nearly 3C below average) Jan was close to average, Feb was cold as well...but that winter was cold without ever being that impressive.

2000-2001 had its moments but overall that was an average winter, 03-04 was actually not all that good at all....but that was in the peak of a series of frankly useless winters, where a 3-4 inch snow event was amazing and even 0.5C below average was impressive...no word of a lie!

Anyway more snow for me today, nothing too heavy but about 1cm today. Weekend looks complicated for the south of Engaldn and Wales, some areas could easily see 6-10 inches in the enxt few days. Interestingly some areas are already up at 14-16 inches of snow even in the SE of England for this winter and another load of snow will take a few areas above 20...which for the whole of the winter would be quite impressive for this part of England, yet alone before Xmas!

Some areas of course are already double that figure and they are obviously just going to add to that total with this cold spell...

[Sock Puppet]

Pic my friend sent me from this morning in London

[kwt]

One other thing by the way...

Both the 12z GFS and the 06z GFS would probably give us the coldest December on record if it came off...the CET zone has over 350 years of records...so that should give you a picture of how exceptionally cold we are at the moment!!

[tacoman25]

One other thing by the way...

Both the 12z GFS and the 06z GFS would probably give us the coldest December on record if it came off...the CET zone has over 350 years of records...so that should give you a picture of how exceptionally cold we are at the moment!!

Truly amazing. Funny how many "experts" were blaming AGW for the dearth of cold winters 1997-2008, when in reality the main issue was a lack of blocking. Not a problem the last few years.

I still remember some Brit scientist in 2004 or 2005 talking about how children born then may never see a snowfall...

[Whacker77]

Does the core of the cold headed for England and the continent of Europe teleconnect to cold in the eastern third of the US? I know Bastardi has central Europe staying cold all winter while the eastern third of the US warming in January. Just an uniformed question looking for a little help.

[Nikolai]

Does anyone have data on how much it snowed in London and Paris the past few days? News reports are talking about how this cold snap is very severe, particularly in Germany.

[Roger Smith]

There were widespread falls of 7-12 inches in the London region on Saturday, not much in England on Sunday. Severe cold (by their standards) in the Midlands, for example -19 C (-2 F) at a station northwest of Oxford on Sunday morning and the high not much better than 7 F (-14 C). It was a lot milder than that in London which rarely falls below 20 F, but as you may have heard, this December is on course to equal or almost equal the coldest on record in the CET series, not a very spectacular mark by our standards, -0.8 C set in 1890.

Meanwhile, on Sunday another small low brought 8-12 inch snowfalls to northern France mostly north of Paris which saw a rain-snow mixture.

The cold is fairly severe across most of northern Europe and Germany, and cuts off pretty much with the northern Alps.

If you want to see a lot of details, I would recommend visiting

http://meteociel.fr

and

http://metoffice.gov.uk

and if you want a weather forum perspective, the U.K. Net-weather forum is almost identical to this forum in both structure and appearance (only not as many pro mets) ...

http://net-weather.co.uk/forum

There has also been a lot of snow in the north and northwest of Ireland in the past few days and people there are saying it's the most they have ever seen, which works out to about a level foot of snow. Following that, some very cold nights with -19 C at the town of Castlederg which is in the far west of Northern Ireland (part of the U.K. so on the site given above). For Irish weather you could visit

http://met.ie

and there is a large weather forum at

http://boards.ie

(look under science in the headers and find weather ... this forum is a national forum for every kind of discussion.)

The big discussion today is whether the cold will break down rapidly on Christmas Day from the storm that is now off the New England coast moving in, or whether some model runs showing this storm diving under a block are more accurate. The talk in British weather circles is that the pattern looks quite locked-in despite what the models are showing in the past few runs. The GFS has been routinely busting at day 5-6 every time it shows low pressure moving into the region, then reality has the low moving more east into the Mediterranean. This has happened maybe four times since late November. The ECM has been handling it a bit better but is now going for the mild breakdown solution. The UKMO and GEM are a bit more conservative. I'm thinking eventual snowstorm from this but maybe a big mess in the south.

[kwt]

Does anyone have data on how much it snowed in London and Paris the past few days? News reports are talking about how this cold snap is very severe, particularly in Germany.

Well Roger has done a good job summing it up in the last few days.

If we are talking the winter thus far...London region probably about 20 inches (though parts of the region is going to probably be close to 25 by the end of tonight!) Sw of the country probably 15-20 inches, Wales between 25-35, Western Midlands 20-30...but its really E.Scotland and the Ne of England thats been hammered over and over again, even low level has had probably 40-50 inches and high level ground very likely close to 100 now...

So by our standards its been a very snowy spell...even by the US standards those totals aren't bad for just November and December...

[NorEaster27]

How much snow did London receive? My cousin is stuck in London and the airport has been closed for 3 days? I heard the city picked up 6 inches this weeknd but that cant be right.

[Ellinwood]

Saw the temps this morning coming out of the UK... just redonkulous. -14C at Manchester?!? Dang.

[marsman]

After 4 hours of rain yesterday evening, back to snow in SW Germany. 6-8 inches expected, with more in the hills.

Local trains are offline, they're putting people on buses. There's only about 3 inches on the ground!

The cold is supposed to hit here on Sunday, forecast high temps around 10F, lows at 0F.

[kwt]

Even down in Londonm the mins were something like -9C which is very impressive...

Numerous reports of -12/13/14C , with our lowest temp last night of -19.6C...very cold but not that close to our coldest ever really...we had colder mins for example last winter...

However its the nature of how widespread those very cold temps are which is impressive, its amazing what widespread snow cover can do, its probably shaved 5-7C off the temps you'd expect in this sort of airflow normally.

Noreaster27, sounds about right to me, the western part of the city weren't far off a foot from Saturday's snowfall, there was precip rates of 10cms an hour at one point in NW London...

That was the 3rd major snowfall in London this winter, all three events gave between 6-10 inches generally, plus there have been numerous small events, thats why I said maybe 20-25 inches for the London region now for the winter. Of course we aren't even in the same league as E.Scotland, they've easily had double what we've had...

[Nikolai]

Even down in Londonm the mins were something like -9C which is very impressive...

Numerous reports of -12/13/14C , with our lowest temp last night of -19.6C...very cold but not that close to our coldest ever really...we had colder mins for example last winter...

However its the nature of how widespread those very cold temps are which is impressive, its amazing what widespread snow cover can do, its probably shaved 5-7C off the temps you'd expect in this sort of airflow normally.

Noreaster27, sounds about right to me, the western part of the city weren't far off a foot from Saturday's snowfall, there was precip rates of 10cms an hour at one point in NW London...

That was the 3rd major snowfall in London this winter, all three events gave between 6-10 inches generally, plus there have been numerous small events, thats why I said maybe 20-25 inches for the London region now for the winter. Of course we aren't even in the same league as E.Scotland, they've easily had double what we've had...

That sounds incredible, and is definitely impressive by Eastern US standards (especially for December, jeez... our record December monthly totals along the East Coast are generally in the 24" range, so London's total is very very respectable).

I'm just so surprised that this has happened there, as it is seemingly unprecedented in recent history. We've had the cold, but not the snow (another story in the Midwest). Where would you rank this period of wintry weather among all periods since 1950?

[tacoman25]

http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/snowfalls-are-now-just-a-thing-of-the-past-724017.html

Oops.

[kwt]

The thing is though under a cold regime its not all that surprising the region has had so much snow. I mean you have a still somewhat North Sea which will develop a softer version of Lake effect snowfall for the region, you've got an even warmer channel to the south which helps the fronts pep up and obviously you've got the Atlantic just to the west...

Our problem usually is simply we don't get enough cold air lasting long enough to get to the stage where nearly any frontal system from any direction will be snow...it is somewhat unusual.

As for where it ranks...well Boxing Day 62 through to Early March 63 is the benchmark really for severe cold in the 20th Century, still has a long way to go to beat that. Jan 79 was probably a little more severe, Feb 1956 was probably similar and at the moment probably because of likely length it may just beat Dec-Jan 1981.

It is though by any standards an extreme winter so far...and even if it breaks down soon it'll go down in the record books I suspect...if somehow we can pick the cold up very quickly if it does breakdown...then my word anything is possible...maybe even a shot at 62-63...