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BRR? Oct 7-12


arlwx

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GFS is claiming chances for a possible frost in the DC area (and freeze at IAD/BWI) the week of Oct 7-13. RIC may also get some frost.

Time to get furnaces checked...

A possibility, but I wouldn't bank on it. Euro Ensemble is about 10 degrees warmer, and while it will probably end up somewhere between the two, I gotta lean a bit more to the Euro. Big -EPO dip will help bring cold to the Great Lakes, but neutral/slightly positive NAO will make it harder for the strong cold to sink into the Mid-Atlantic. PNA flips to weakly positive, but that develops in a split-flow pattern and doesn't really help us much.

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As I posted in the NE thread re the fall weather, at this point in the season I just want to see cold/stormy patterns advertised on 7-10 model progs to verify. In decent winters they usually do, and in lousy ones they usually don't by getting pushed back or lost all together. Verifying now vs. not would make me feel a whole lot more confident about the winter.

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