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October 2012 obs and discussion


Ian

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2078

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0755 PM CDT THU OCT 18 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...N CENTRAL VA SWD INTO CENTRAL NC

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 190055Z - 190300Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STORM COVERAGE FORECAST TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE

OF HOURS...WITH LIMITED SEVERE THREAT POSSIBLY BECOMING SUFFICIENT

FOR WW ISSUANCE.

DISCUSSION...CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT AN INCREASE IN STORM

COVERAGE -- BEGINNING TO BE NOTED ON RADAR IMAGERY -- WILL CONTINUE

OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AS A WEAK/SUBTLE VORT MAX SHIFTS ENEWD

TOWARD THE SRN APPALACHIANS AND A SECOND AFFECTS WV/VA. VERY STRONG

FLOW ALOFT RESIDES ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA...AND THOUGH LOW-LEVEL

SHEAR IS SOMEWHAT WEAK /LIKELY TO LIMIT ANY TORNADO

POTENTIAL/...FAIRLY STEEP LAPSE RATES INDICATED WITHIN THE EVENING

GSO /GREENSBORO SC/ RAOB MAY COMBINE WITH THE FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER

SHEAR TO SUPPORT FAIRLY ROBUST/LOW-TOPPED STORMS. A FEW STRONGER

CELLS COULD PRODUCE MARGINAL HAIL...AND GUSTY WINDS MAY ALSO OCCUR

WITH ANY SMALL-SCALE BANDS OF STORMS WHICH MAY EVOLVE. ANY TORNADO

THREAT WILL LIKELY REMAIN WEAK/BRIEF...ATTM APPEARING MOST LIKELY

ACROSS NC INVOF A DIFFUSE WARM FRONT.

..GOSS/CORFIDI.. 10/19/2012

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* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...

NORTHEASTERN SHENANDOAH COUNTY IN NORTHWEST VIRGINIA...

NORTHWESTERN WARREN COUNTY IN NORTHWEST VIRGINIA...

CITY OF WINCHESTER IN NORTHWEST VIRGINIA...

SOUTHERN FREDERICK COUNTY IN NORTHWEST VIRGINIA...

NORTHERN CLARKE COUNTY IN NORTHWEST VIRGINIA...

SOUTHWESTERN JEFFERSON COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF WEST VIRGINIA...

SOUTHERN BERKELEY COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF WEST VIRGINIA...

* UNTIL 1000 PM EDT

* AT 916 PM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS DETECTED NEAR

STRASBURG...AND WAS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH. THIS STORM IS

CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS AND DAMAGING

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...

STEPHENS CITY...

GREENWOOD...

MILLWOOD PIKE...

WINCHESTER...

BERRYVILLE...

INWOOD...

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC

941 PM EDT THU OCT 18 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...

NORTHERN RAPPAHANNOCK COUNTY IN NORTHWEST VIRGINIA...

EASTERN SHENANDOAH COUNTY IN NORTHWEST VIRGINIA...

WARREN COUNTY IN NORTHWEST VIRGINIA...

SOUTHERN CLARKE COUNTY IN NORTHWEST VIRGINIA...

NORTHEASTERN PAGE COUNTY IN NORTHWEST VIRGINIA...

SOUTHERN JEFFERSON COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF WEST VIRGINIA...

WESTERN LOUDOUN COUNTY IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA...

NORTHWESTERN FAUQUIER COUNTY IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA...

* UNTIL 1030 PM EDT

* AT 938 PM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS DETECTED 7 MILES

SOUTHWEST OF FRONT ROYAL...AND WAS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH. THIS

STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS AND

DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...

FRONT ROYAL...

DELAPLANE...

ST. LOUIS...

BLUEMONT...

ROUND HILL...

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