Avdave Posted October 18, 2012 Share Posted October 18, 2012 Its dark out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted October 18, 2012 Share Posted October 18, 2012 Its dark out Observation of the year! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 18, 2012 Share Posted October 18, 2012 So it looks like a few storms after dark, maybe isolated severe. Until then a beautiful day. Here's a shot from Towson today looking off the top of a six story garage. Beautiful fall wx! Here's a shot way up in northern MD near the PA border from this past Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted October 18, 2012 Share Posted October 18, 2012 Strong/severe storms developing in WV: VERY little CAPE and low surface dews just gives you an appreciation of how strong the dynamics are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted October 18, 2012 Share Posted October 18, 2012 Observation of the year! Indeed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted October 18, 2012 Share Posted October 18, 2012 Too bad instability is low. SREF tornado ingredients gives C/SE VA a fairly large 50 area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted October 18, 2012 Share Posted October 18, 2012 Fall sucks when you know winter is going to suck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CranberryWX Posted October 18, 2012 Share Posted October 18, 2012 A cool rainy day with some thunder. Needed the rain, but only got 0.14". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted October 18, 2012 Share Posted October 18, 2012 Some low clouds over Shenandoah natl park right now, but cool view from there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted October 18, 2012 Share Posted October 18, 2012 -RA and 65* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted October 18, 2012 Share Posted October 18, 2012 Decent downpour just moved through here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted October 18, 2012 Share Posted October 18, 2012 tis raining Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 19, 2012 Share Posted October 19, 2012 Too bad there isnt more instability http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/soundings/12101900_OBS/RNK.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 19, 2012 Share Posted October 19, 2012 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2078 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0755 PM CDT THU OCT 18 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...N CENTRAL VA SWD INTO CENTRAL NC CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 190055Z - 190300Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT SUMMARY...STORM COVERAGE FORECAST TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...WITH LIMITED SEVERE THREAT POSSIBLY BECOMING SUFFICIENT FOR WW ISSUANCE. DISCUSSION...CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT AN INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE -- BEGINNING TO BE NOTED ON RADAR IMAGERY -- WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AS A WEAK/SUBTLE VORT MAX SHIFTS ENEWD TOWARD THE SRN APPALACHIANS AND A SECOND AFFECTS WV/VA. VERY STRONG FLOW ALOFT RESIDES ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA...AND THOUGH LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS SOMEWHAT WEAK /LIKELY TO LIMIT ANY TORNADO POTENTIAL/...FAIRLY STEEP LAPSE RATES INDICATED WITHIN THE EVENING GSO /GREENSBORO SC/ RAOB MAY COMBINE WITH THE FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR TO SUPPORT FAIRLY ROBUST/LOW-TOPPED STORMS. A FEW STRONGER CELLS COULD PRODUCE MARGINAL HAIL...AND GUSTY WINDS MAY ALSO OCCUR WITH ANY SMALL-SCALE BANDS OF STORMS WHICH MAY EVOLVE. ANY TORNADO THREAT WILL LIKELY REMAIN WEAK/BRIEF...ATTM APPEARING MOST LIKELY ACROSS NC INVOF A DIFFUSE WARM FRONT. ..GOSS/CORFIDI.. 10/19/2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 19, 2012 Share Posted October 19, 2012 SPC has reintroduced SLGT risk for BWI south... 15% hail 5% wind 2% hail Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TradeWinds Posted October 19, 2012 Share Posted October 19, 2012 I think I felt some of that strong flow aloft. Hit some moderate turbulence on the descent into IAD somewhere in Central VA. It's one thing to have chop but when you go from smooth into moderate turbulence, it wakes you up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 19, 2012 Share Posted October 19, 2012 Severe warned storm in Shenendoah has golf ball sized hail Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 19, 2012 Author Share Posted October 19, 2012 Too bad there isnt more instability http://www.spc.noaa....900_OBS/RNK.gif heh there's almost no cape.. but it's advecting in with the convection a bit. if we had cape we'd have like 5 mini supercells tornado warned coming at us. that svr warned storm might get one soon either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 19, 2012 Share Posted October 19, 2012 Thunder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 19, 2012 Author Share Posted October 19, 2012 Thunder in mid oct thunder is a win Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrs.J Posted October 19, 2012 Share Posted October 19, 2012 Getting a lot of lightning and thunder up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 19, 2012 Share Posted October 19, 2012 * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... NORTHEASTERN SHENANDOAH COUNTY IN NORTHWEST VIRGINIA... NORTHWESTERN WARREN COUNTY IN NORTHWEST VIRGINIA... CITY OF WINCHESTER IN NORTHWEST VIRGINIA... SOUTHERN FREDERICK COUNTY IN NORTHWEST VIRGINIA... NORTHERN CLARKE COUNTY IN NORTHWEST VIRGINIA... SOUTHWESTERN JEFFERSON COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF WEST VIRGINIA... SOUTHERN BERKELEY COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF WEST VIRGINIA... * UNTIL 1000 PM EDT * AT 916 PM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS DETECTED NEAR STRASBURG...AND WAS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH. THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... STEPHENS CITY... GREENWOOD... MILLWOOD PIKE... WINCHESTER... BERRYVILLE... INWOOD... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted October 19, 2012 Share Posted October 19, 2012 Getting a lot of lightning and thunder up here. Just started here too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 19, 2012 Author Share Posted October 19, 2012 Storm passing NW of Madison VA trying to get interesting too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrs.J Posted October 19, 2012 Share Posted October 19, 2012 Got a strong thunderstorm advisory for the storm to my West. I think I am a bit south of it but not by much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 19, 2012 Share Posted October 19, 2012 00z KIAD sounding -- http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/soundings/12101900_OBS/IAD.gif CAPE atrocious... but decent SRH and mid-level lapse rates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 19, 2012 Share Posted October 19, 2012 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 941 PM EDT THU OCT 18 2012 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... NORTHERN RAPPAHANNOCK COUNTY IN NORTHWEST VIRGINIA... EASTERN SHENANDOAH COUNTY IN NORTHWEST VIRGINIA... WARREN COUNTY IN NORTHWEST VIRGINIA... SOUTHERN CLARKE COUNTY IN NORTHWEST VIRGINIA... NORTHEASTERN PAGE COUNTY IN NORTHWEST VIRGINIA... SOUTHERN JEFFERSON COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF WEST VIRGINIA... WESTERN LOUDOUN COUNTY IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA... NORTHWESTERN FAUQUIER COUNTY IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA... * UNTIL 1030 PM EDT * AT 938 PM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS DETECTED 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF FRONT ROYAL...AND WAS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH. THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... FRONT ROYAL... DELAPLANE... ST. LOUIS... BLUEMONT... ROUND HILL... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 19, 2012 Share Posted October 19, 2012 Intermittent hail cores showing up in that line that just got warned above... with another line of separate cells going up along and just west of the I95 corridor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted October 19, 2012 Share Posted October 19, 2012 Got a strong thunderstorm advisory for the storm to my West. I think I am a bit south of it but not by much. What is a 'strong thunderstorm advisory'? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted October 19, 2012 Share Posted October 19, 2012 Radar actually looks fairly impressive lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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