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October 2012 obs and discussion


Ian

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Slight risk area for Western WV this afternoon. Feels like a Spring morning, warm with rain showers and DP creeping up into the 60s...0.45" since midnight. Had a rumble of thunder around midnight last night.

SLY WINDS WILL TRANSPORT MOISTURE /SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S/ NWD

ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR. MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST AN AREA OF

SURFACE HEATING WILL OCCUR WITHIN A MIDLEVEL DRY SLOT TO THE E/NE OF

THE WEAKENING SURFACE CYCLONE...CONTRIBUTING TO MUCAPE GENERALLY AOB

500 J/KG...GIVEN WEAK LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. DESPITE WEAKENING

SLY LOW LEVEL WINDS...STRENGTHENING SLY MIDLEVEL WINDS /50-60 KT/

WILL RESULT IN ELONGATED HODOGRAPHS WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR

ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS. FORCING FOR ASCENT IS

EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE OH VALLEY INTO THE AFTERNOON WITHIN

THE EXIT REGION OF THE STRENGTHENING MIDLEVEL JET PROMOTING AN

INCREASE IN CONVECTION AND DIURNAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY

WHERE DIABATIC HEATING IS GREATEST. DESPITE AN EXPECTED DECREASE IN

LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPH CURVATURE AS THE LLJ WEAKENS INTO THE

AFTERNOON...0-1 KM SRH AROUND 100 M2/S2 SUGGESTS A TORNADO THREAT

CANNOT BE RULED OUT. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT

AS WELL WITH THE MORE ROBUST TSTMS.

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Just clipped 1.00" for the day and 1.02" for the event in Ballenger Creek.

Nice. Up to 0.86" on the north side of the city.

Power out at most locations down here in Rockville from a power surge. Most traffic lights still out and businesses without power. Fun morning if you don't have to be on the roads.

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what are you, a snowman? it's 80, not 100. go walk, run, golf, paint the house. lol :sun:

Seriously!!! Some people here really need to be living up in the arctic circle. It's not like it's July and the forecast is for 100 degrees. Two or three days of 80 degrees in October is pleasant. Temps in the 20s and 30s with windchills much lower will be here soon enough, so why not enjoy the mild weather while we still have it.

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Over-performer? Models don't handle anomalous precipitable water values well I suppose... everything was pretty dry yesterday (a few tenths of an inch). DCA precip seems low compared to what I saw around here.

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