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October 2012 Obs/Discussion Thread


WilkesboroDude

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Picked up 0.21 from a thunderstorm that just moved through. Was in a warning breifly but it just missed me. Few good ground strikes near by with this cell.

It always irritates me when the heaviest stuff skirts around me....lol

I guess the NAM was right :lol: The front took forever to get here and I got lucky enough to get some much needed rainfall :hug:

0.29" overnight

Me too ^_^

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:lol: We only picked up 0.01" from the rain yesterday... The heaviest rains went to our north and south. :axe: It was refreshing this morning, though! We made it down to 48° this morning while La Grange saw 39°! :) I'm looking forward to having hot chocolate on my porch the next few mornings! Yay for weekend cool downs! :D
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Special Statement SPE.gif

Statement as of 3:02 PM EDT on October 19, 2012

... A dust plume may spread over the western North Carolina

mountains late this afternoon...

Strong winds over the Central Plains yesterday kicked up a large plume of

dust. Circulation around low pressure centered over the southern

Great Lakes has pushed the dust plume eastward today. At 245 PM... high

resolution satellite images indicated that the leading edge of the

dust plume reached the western slopes of the southern Appalachian

Mountains... and southwest across northern Georgia and Alabama. The

dust plume will continue to move east... resulting in hazy

conditions across the North Carolina mountains. A few areas could

see visibility limited to a few miles at times.

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Saw that. Big drought in Nebraska has led to massive plume of dust traveling on the outer periphery of closed low in the Midwest. Unless Nebraska and South Dakota get heavy rain (or significant snow cover) sometime soon (unlikely in the short term, snow likely eventually sometime this winter), then any cold front could drive more blowing dust onto the Southern Plains and even into the American South and other regions.

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It always irritates me when the heaviest stuff skirts around me....lol

I guess the NAM was right :lol: The front took forever to get here and I got lucky enough to get some much needed rainfall :hug:

Me too ^_^

Hey again :)

Didn't pick up but a few drops here. I haven't been posting much here in the SE forum but when it's this boring with no real interesting weather on the horizon there isn't anything I find worthy enough to talk about... but I'm still around folks....for anyone who is wondering. It's just hard to sit here and discuss dry day after dry day with 70s for highs and 40s/50s for lows. I hate this time of yea..weather wise. God I can't for winter.

Anyway, 46 this morning.

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43.3 here this morning. I think I'm getting jealous of LaGrange :) I may have to set the Moles to work on that fantasy gulf low. That could work out to be another duzy! I'm ready for another 6 inches of rain! Only got .15 the other day. T

Save the moles for January and make it 6" of snow. :P

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Hey again :)

Didn't pick up but a few drops here. I haven't been posting much here in the SE forum but when it's this boring with no real interesting weather on the horizon there isn't anything I find worthy enough to talk about... but I'm still around folks....for anyone who is wondering. It's just hard to sit here and discuss dry day after dry day with 70s for highs and 40s/50s for lows. I hate this time of yea..weather wise. God I can't for winter.

Anyway, 46 this morning.

I have to disagree with Lookout. ;) Dry, cool autumn weather like this is some of my favorite wx. It is such a refeshing change from the long hot and humid summer, it is great for walking, it is optimal for pretty leaf colors, and it reminds me that winter is not too far away.

The 12Z GFS out 9-11 days is a dream run for those who want a shot at record lows. Enjoy the fantasy because it will almost definitely be warmer on the 18Z.

For the fun of it, it has 850's getting down to -4 C at KATL on 10/29 and down to -14 C in the upper Midwest (MSP), very cold for Oct.! The 12Z GFS gets KATL down to ~28 F on 10/29 (and TD's of ~19 F), which would tie the 1976 record low. Even the 12Z Euro gets KATL's 850 down to -2 C on 10/30.

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I have to disagree with Lookout. ;) Dry, cool autumn weather like this is some of my favorite wx. It is such a refeshing change from the long hot and humid summer, it is great for walking, it is optimal for pretty leaf colors, and it reminds me that winter is not too far away.

I share your sentiments. Yeah, I'm psyched for winter, but it's hard to beat this great fall weather recently: Every high temp at my house has been between 67 F and 72 F for the past ten days! The lows have been daily in the mid 40s. That is awesome weather! The yard is so green with the fescue no longer struggling in the summer heat, and the leaves are turning yellow, orange, and red. I love it!

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I have to disagree with Lookout. ;) Dry, cool autumn weather like this is some of my favorite wx. It is such a refeshing change from the long hot and humid summer, it is great for walking, it is optimal for pretty leaf colors, and it reminds me that winter is not too far away.

The 12Z GFS out 9-11 days is a dream run for those who want a shot at record lows. Enjoy the fantasy because it will almost definitely be warmer on the 18Z.

For the fun of it, it has 850's getting down to -4 C at KATL on 10/29 and down to -14 C in the upper Midwest (MSP), very cold for Oct.! The 12Z GFS gets KATL down to ~28 F on 10/29 (and TD's of ~19 F), which would tie the 1976 record low. Even the 12Z Euro gets KATL's 850 down to -2 C on 10/30.

Just saw that....Hmmmm. Well at least both of the models are in agreement. I am sure it will be tempered somewhat before verification time.

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Hey again :)

Didn't pick up but a few drops here. I haven't been posting much here in the SE forum but when it's this boring with no real interesting weather on the horizon there isn't anything I find worthy enough to talk about... but I'm still around folks....for anyone who is wondering. It's just hard to sit here and discuss dry day after dry day with 70s for highs and 40s/50s for lows. I hate this time of yea..weather wise. God I can't for winter.

Anyway, 46 this morning.

Hi!!! :hug: I'm looking forward to the day/night when I'm up late reading some awesomely hawt PBP's and scolding the :weenie: 's when they start asking how much for mby :lol::wub:

The older I get the more I disagree with this statement. Dry is good.

:lol:

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The 12Z GFS out 9-11 days is a dream run for those who want a shot at record lows. Enjoy the fantasy because it will almost definitely be warmer on the 18Z.

For the fun of it, it has 850's getting down to -4 C at KATL on 10/29 and down to -14 C in the upper Midwest (MSP), very cold for Oct.! The 12Z GFS gets KATL down to ~28 F on 10/29 (and TD's of ~19 F), which would tie the 1976 record low. Even the 12Z Euro gets KATL's 850 down to -2 C on 10/30.

Well, what do I know? Not only was the 18Z GFS not warmer than the 12Z GFS at 850, it was actually colder! It gets as low as an incredible -7 C at KATL (on 10/29)! Going all the way back to 1948, the coldest I've been able to find in Oct. at KATL at 850 is the -7 C of 10/31/1993, a day that included flurries (almost unheard of in Oct.) and the coldest Oct. high on record (41 F). MeteoStar has lows of 28, 28, and 29 on 10/28-30. This would be a record tieing low followed by a new record low followed by another record tieing low! Actually, 28 would tied for the coldest in all of Oct. on record. So, this is the second GFS run in a row giving KATL a tie for the coldest alltime Oct. low on record! I fully expect a warmer run at 0Z..does that sound familiar? ;) Actually, the coldest 850's could warm ~4 C to ~-3 C and still possibly be cold enough for a tie of the alltime Oct low of 28 F based on looking at old 850 maps.

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Dipped down to 36 here in Sylva this morning. A nice inversion going on with temps in the upper 30's above 3500'. Frost reports coming in from many wnc locations. Looking forward to the slopes opening up here in the next few weeks (traditional date for Cataloochee is Nov 4th, last yr it was the 12th).

Got down to 32 here this morning. Nice little frost.

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Well, what do I know? Not only was the 18Z GFS not warmer than the 12Z GFS at 850, it was actually colder! It gets as low as an incredible -7 C at KATL (on 10/29)! Going all the way back to 1948, the coldest I've been able to find in Oct. at KATL at 850 is the -7 C of 10/31/1993, a day that included flurries (almost unheard of in Oct.) and the coldest Oct. high on record (41 F). MeteoStar has lows of 28, 28, and 29 on 10/28-30. This would be a record tieing low followed by a new record low followed by another record tieing low! Actually, 28 would tied for the coldest in all of Oct. on record. So, this is the second GFS run in a row giving KATL a tie for the coldest alltime Oct. low on record! I fully expect a warmer run at 0Z..does that sound familiar? ;) Actually, the coldest 850's could warm ~4 C to ~-3 C and still possibly be cold enough for a tie of the alltime Oct low of 28 F based on looking at old 850 maps.

Well, Larry, I am assuming that an all time record low at the end of Oct. would be equal too, or better than two record lows earlier in the month? As far as getting a good winter? And LaGrange has already been in the 30's several nights...so that means lots of sleet down here, right?

And, I guess I'm going to back up Chris as far as the dry is concerned. I mean wouldn't you rather be walking in a nice endless cad regime? Weeks without sun, with a stiff ne cad wind, 38 for daytime highs, and endless drizzle? Hard to see how you can beat a situation like that, lol, unless you were walking the beach in a cold cad drizzle. That would be better! Well, ok, ice cream on the beach in a cold cad drizzle.....that's even better :) T

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