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October 2012 Obs/Discussion Thread


WilkesboroDude

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NWS Raleigh

The earlier long and straight forecast

hodographs become increasingly cyclonically-curved in the lowest

km...which when combined with the strong bulk shear oriented

relatively parallel to the surface front...would support a broken

line of storms -including supercells conditional upon

destabilization west of the earlier

wcb - all of which would be capable of producing damaging winds. A

threat of large hail and non-zero tornado threat would also

accompany any supercell.

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I gained 0.87 inch in the rain department this morning. It all fell between 7 AM and 10 AM. It was much more than expected based on the width and speed of the line of precipitation according to radar returns. So, I am very pleasantly surprised with this total. For the month of October, I have now registered 1.96 inches of rainfall.

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I like to sleep with a 120 lb cat on top of me!?

I got a solid half inch yesterday morn, and I slept right through what was, by all accounts, a very noisey event.

45.3 this morning meant I slept good last night too :) Window open, and under a blanket, with 20 lbs. of cat on top of me. A sure sign winter is coming, lol. T

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day2.prob.gif

Sounds halfway promising the other day didnt really pan out down here so we will see what this one can do

From SPC

.THUNDERSTORM APPEAR LIKELY TO INITIATE IN THE

FOOTHILLS OF THE APPALACHIAN MTNS. THE NAM SOLUTION NOW FORECASTS A

LINE OF STORMS TO ORGANIZE ALONG THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH ON THE WRN

EDGE OF AN INTENSIFYING LOW-LEVEL JET IN CNTRL VA AND ERN NC DURING

THE LATE AFTERNOON. SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS CONCERNING CONVECTIVE

COVERAGE MAINLY DUE TO THE CONSERVATIVE GFS SOLUTION. AT THIS

POINT...WILL FAVOR THE MORE AGGRESSIVE NAM WHICH DEVELOPS STORMS

FURTHER SOUTH IN THE UNSTABLE AIR.

THE LOW-LEVEL JET SHOULD HELP WITH MOISTURE RETURN AND SFC DEWPOINTS

ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE MID 60S F ACROSS ERN VA AND ERN NC BY MID

AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...A POCKET OF MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD

DEVELOP NEAR RALEIGH NC WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING MLCAPE

VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG AT 21Z. THIS COMBINED WITH 45 TO 50 KT OF

DEEP LAYER SHEAR MAY BE ENOUGH FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT. THE

MAIN THREAT WOULD BE WIND DAMAGE DUE TO STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES

AND ABOUT 30 KT OF FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SFC. WILL ADD A SLIGHT RISK

TO ERN VA AND ERN NC TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR

SEVERE STORMS. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH WITH NWD EXTENT

ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC WHERE INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO BE WEAK.

THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD ALSO DECREASE SSWWD ACROSS SC AND ERN GA

WHERE LARGE-SCALE ASCENT IS FORECAST TO BE WEAK.

..BROYLES.. 10/17/2012

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