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October 2012 Obs/Discussion Thread


WilkesboroDude

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Winter Weather Advisories are up for much of ND and a Winter Storm Watch is up for northern Minnesota! Dare I say... Winter is coming! Winter is coming! I'm looking forward to the nice cool down that's in store for most of us next week. While we may not get as cool as areas to our north, it will be a nice tease for the winter months! :)

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Winter Weather Advisories are up for much of ND and a Winter Storm Watch is up for northern Minnesota! Dare I say... Winter is coming! Winter is coming! I'm looking forward to the nice cool down that's in store for most of us next week. While we may not get as cool as areas to our north, it will be a nice tease for the winter months! :)

I am looking forward to the cool down also ^_^

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Whereas the recent very heavy rains have been great news for most and an exciting/fun thing to discuss, too much rain and clouds in Oct. wouldn't usually be good for a bright/colorful autumn leaf peak based on my experiences/leaf color diary. So, if you're hoping for a very pretty peak this year, your best bet would be a mainly dry period with clear/chilly nights over the next couple of weeks.

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To me, we've had a good start to fall. We've gotten some good rains, and not too warm. Our first major cool down will be this weekend. I'm expecting a low of 39 on Columbus Day morning. Meanwhile in the Upper Midwest, Winter Storm Warnings and Watches are in effect for North Dakota and Minnesota. Some areas could see up to 10 inches.

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Here comes the chill! From this morning's Raleigh AFD

FOR MONDAY NIGHT...LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES IN THE LOW 1340S AND GOOD

RADIATIONAL COOLING SUGGEST THAT THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON WILL

HELP TEMPERATURES TO DIVE DOWN INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS THE

WESTERN PIEDMONT AND USUALLY COLD ZONES. PATCHY FROST IS NOT OUT OF

THE QUESTION IN THESE AREAS...ESPECIALLY IF OPTIMUM RADIATIONAL

COOLING CONDITIONS ARE REALIZED. URBAN AREAS SHOULD BOTTOM OUT NEAR

40. FURTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD ONLY REACH

THE LOWER 40S.

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2 and a quarter for the year sucks, Cheston :) I hope ya'll are offering camel rides up there, to make extra bucks. Even Justin is beating the heck out of you! When the Moles bring the big, huge snow in Feb. you might only get a few flakes. Time to move, bud :) Now! Audio Guy isn't all that far away, and he got hammered too, so go north, or south, and you'll be ok :)

Seriously, the last time I remember training tropical down pours like this was TS Alberto. I was getting rain in 1/2 inch to one or more inch bursts, with steady lighter rains in between. A rain train has got to be one of the more impressive weather events available to the south. T

There have been times when it seams that I've only had 2.25" on the year judging by the moisture in my yard. When I first read your post I was wondering what you were talking about. I did add up my YTD recently and it is a paltry 30.5".

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CAE :wub:

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

LATEST ECMWF/GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE

MOVING INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY. A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE FASTER

GFS AND SLOWER ECMWF WILL BE USED. CONTINUED WITH A CHANCE OF

SHOWERS SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. SREF ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE INDICATED THE

BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN TO BE SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. TEMPERATURES

WILL BE TRICKY ON SUNDAY BASED ON THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONTAL

BOUNDARY...BUT EXPECT COOLER TEMPERATURES BY MONDAY. BEHIND THE

FRONT...COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION MONDAY

THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN TO GRADUALLY RISE

THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...BUT REMAIN BELOW

NORMAL. LOOKS LIKE THE AREA WILL SEE THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES OF

THE FALL PERIOD BY TUESDAY MORNING AS MANY AREAS WILL FALL INTO

THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. ANOTHER DRY COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM

THE WEST LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. EXPECT TEMPERATURES

TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

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Lets kill some bugs!! Maybe first frost for some come Monday night:

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC

545 AM EDT FRI OCT 5 2012

NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>077-083-084-061100-

PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-

ORANGE-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM-WAKE-

JOHNSTON-WILSON-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-LEE-HARNETT-ANSON-RICHMOND-

545 AM EDT FRI OCT 5 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION AND PRODUCE THE

COOLEST AIR OF THE SEASON EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY

NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO DIP INTO THE UPPER...TO PERHAPS EVEN MIDDLE

30S. THESE TEMPERATURES MAY SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY

FROST...PARTICULARLY IN NON-URBAN AREAS OF THE PIEDMONT.

$$

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First time snow mentioned in the forecast discussion this season...

NWS Blacksburg

There is some minor concern for S- in the higher elevations of our WV

mountains...noting that rlx has included S- across Pocahontas

County. 850mb temperatures do drop into the -2c range sun across this

region...but current thinking is that the depth of the cold air

will not be sufficient to support ice Crystal growth to any extent.

Thus...have not included any mention of S- at this point.

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First time snow mentioned in the forecast discussion this season...

NWS Blacksburg

There is some minor concern for S- in the higher elevations of our WV

mountains...noting that rlx has included S- across Pocahontas

County. 850mb temperatures do drop into the -2c range sun across this

region...but current thinking is that the depth of the cold air

will not be sufficient to support ice Crystal growth to any extent.

Thus...have not included any mention of S- at this point.

Lets be accurate. It's the first official mention of not mentioning snow in the forecast. :)

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