NEXtreme Posted October 8, 2012 Share Posted October 8, 2012 Not bad.... RECORD EVENT REPORT...UPDATE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK 935 AM CDT MON OCT 8 2012 ...NEW RECORD COLD LOW TEMPERATURE SET AT OKLAHOMA CITY... THE OFFICIAL LOW TEMPERATURE THIS MORNING AT WILL ROGERS WORLD AIRPORT IN OKLAHOMA CITY WAS 31 DEGREES. THIS BREAKS THE PREVIOUS RECORD LOW OF 34 DEGREES...WHICH WAS SET ON THIS DATE IN 2000. THIS IS OFFICIALLY THE EARLIEST FALL FREEZE ON RECORD FOR OKLAHOMA CITY. THE PREVIOUS EARLIEST FALL FREEZE WAS ON OCTOBER 9 BACK IN 2000. TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR OKLAHOMA CITY DATE BACK TO 1891. A record Low Max was set at Newark today...54...over 1,000 records in this cold snap across the nation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted October 8, 2012 Share Posted October 8, 2012 46 right now after a high of 53.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 8, 2012 Share Posted October 8, 2012 don't worry, it's going to get warm again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 8, 2012 Share Posted October 8, 2012 What are the chances we could hit 80F again? Is that at all likely. Signs point to some strong warming next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 9, 2012 Share Posted October 9, 2012 What are the chances we could hit 80F again? Is that at all likely. Signs point to some strong warming next week. the record high for 10/16 is 87 in 1897...10/17's record is 90 in 1938...it was 83 on 10/17/1963... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 9, 2012 Author Share Posted October 9, 2012 .06 rain...what a bust One would hope that these kind of posts will stop by the time winter comes. El busto on the rain for tonight outside of a shower here or there. Second friendly reminder in two days that these kinds of posts add nothing to the discussion, in fact they take away from it. Given the pinned thread at the top of the forum, take that hint for what it's worth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 9, 2012 Share Posted October 9, 2012 Sorry-thought this was banter for some reason-which it's not - Upton notes the 2 scenarios for tonight in their updated AFD - LOOKING AT REGIONAL RADAR TRENDS...APPEARS FOR NOW THAT WILL ONLY SEE SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN THROUGH THE EVENING. THE QUESTION BECOMES HOW THE OVERNIGHT PLAYS OUT. 18Z NAM AND 18Z GFS CONTINUE TO HAVE SIMILAR DIFFERENCES TO THEIR RESPECTIVE 12Z RUNS OVER PLACEMENT/STRENGTH OF 850-500 HPA FRONTOGENETIC AND Q-VECTOR FORCING. SINCE SO FAR IT IS NOT COMPLETELY APPARENT WHICH ONE OF THE TWO IS MORE LIKELY TO BE CORRECT - THOUGH THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT THE GFS MIGHT END UP BEING CLOSER TO REALITY...WILL CONTINUE WITH IDEA OF A BLENDED FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN OVER MOST OF THE TRI-STATE. HOPEFULLY WILL HAVE A BETTER IDEA WITH UPDATE AROUND 3 HOURS FROM NOW - BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO END UP NEEDING TO SCALE BACK ON QPF AMOUNTS OVERNIGHT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted October 9, 2012 Share Posted October 9, 2012 What are the chances we could hit 80F again? Is that at all likely. Signs point to some strong warming next week. Per the gefs map that forky posted, probably not. Average highs are now down into the mid 60s and a 3 to 6 degree departure like his map shows would put us at around 70 degrees at the very warmest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted October 9, 2012 Share Posted October 9, 2012 Per the gefs map that forky posted, probably not. Average highs are now down into the mid 60s and a 3 to 6 degree departure like his map shows would put us at around 70 degrees at the very warmest. Those are smoothed averages. If it's 6 degrees above normal and one day is normal, another day has to be 12 degrees above normal to be +6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 9, 2012 Share Posted October 9, 2012 Those are smoothed averages. If it's 6 degrees above normal and one day is normal, another day has to be 12 degrees above normal to be +6. So does that mean 80s are possible because one day can be well above normal and the averages could still be +3 if the other days around it are closer to normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted October 9, 2012 Share Posted October 9, 2012 So does that mean 80s are possible because one day can be well above normal and the averages could still be +3 if the other days around it are closer to normal. Models have near 80 degrees for Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 9, 2012 Share Posted October 9, 2012 Raining here...just like forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 9, 2012 Share Posted October 9, 2012 Saturday looks like it could be the coldest morning of the season for many. If the winds can go calm, then some interior-pine barrens spots may get down to around freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 9, 2012 Share Posted October 9, 2012 everyone outside the immediate nyc area is probably going to get a freeze saturday morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted October 9, 2012 Share Posted October 9, 2012 Those are smoothed averages. If it's 6 degrees above normal and one day is normal, another day has to be 12 degrees above normal to be +6. Okay, thanks for clearing that up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 9, 2012 Author Share Posted October 9, 2012 0-3km lapse rates are 7.0 c/km as the low topped line passes over with some moderately impressive forcing from the trough to our north and west with unimpressive instability. http://wxcaster4.com/nam/CONUS_ETA212_0-3KM_LAPSE-RATE_36HR.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 10, 2012 Author Share Posted October 10, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 Wow, the Nam has the city getting down into the 30's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 everyone outside the immediate nyc area is probably going to get a freeze saturday morning Awesome... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 Awesome... Can't wait to kill some ragweed and bugs off. Given we've already made the upper 30s with a not so ideal set-up, a 1032mb high parked overhead with sub 0c 850's should send us to 32F fairly easily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 .26" from last night's drizzle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 wow, belmar got 1.82" from that convergence band on the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 AO NAO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 wow, belmar got 1.82" from that convergence band on the coast when I saw that on radar I thought it was false echo's...Some of that brushed my area...Then the Sun came out for five minutes...it's overcast again... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 wow, belmar got 1.82" from that convergence band on the coast Over 3 inches there now....surprising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 The -NAO/AO mean that the warmth will probably not stay to long once it arrives and it doesn't look quite as impressive as it did a couple days ago. Before 80F seemed possible, now 75F might be the best we could do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 I doubt that all areas outside the city will see a freeze. If the winds don't lighten up, you can kiss that chance goodbye, especially for coastal locations. North winds on LI sound should keep LI above freezing. Even if the winds do lighten up, the ocean should keep all coastal locations from getting to near freezing. Anyway, much warmer than expected today. Maxed out at 71.5°F here in Bay Shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 Was looking at archives on foliagenetwork site, and I can't find a year since 1999 further along than right now at this point. Latest update has coastal locations into moderate - 30 to 61% change, which is definitely a solid week early. The pattern for foliage has been great the past month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 Was looking at archives on foliagenetwork site, and I can't find a year since 1999 further along than right now at this point. Latest update has coastal locations into moderate - 30 to 61% change, which is definitely a solid week early. The pattern for foliage has been great the past month. We are approaching peak right now up this way.. Anything above 1500' is probably at or slightly past peak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted October 11, 2012 Share Posted October 11, 2012 Cold morning esp with that wind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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