BxEngine Posted October 4, 2012 Share Posted October 4, 2012 wow wow you are so funny apologies, forgot who I was talking to. http://www.accuweather.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted October 4, 2012 Share Posted October 4, 2012 apologies, forgot who I was talking to. http://www.accuweather.com/ Now that's funny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 4, 2012 Share Posted October 4, 2012 Feels like summer out. Really humid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted October 4, 2012 Share Posted October 4, 2012 Some places, will go from 70s on Saturday to 40s with rain on Sunday. A wave develops along the cold front Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 4, 2012 Share Posted October 4, 2012 Some places, will go from 70s on Saturday to 40s with rain on Sunday. A wave develops along the cold front Sunday. Very chilly rain on the 12z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted October 4, 2012 Share Posted October 4, 2012 Radar shows rain drying up over northern NJ/NYC/LI. Sun trying to break out here in southern Brooklyn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted October 5, 2012 Share Posted October 5, 2012 looks like the first real extended cool down of the season starts sunday - no 70 degree temps in site after saturday on the 6Z GFS for the next 16 days with the NAO forecasted to stay in neg territory http://wxweb.meteost...shtml?text=KEWR looks very 1976ish - even earlier if it holds where the last 70 degree reading that year was Oct 15th scroll down on this to see the monthly calendar http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KEWR/1976/10/15/MonthlyHistory.html?req_city=NA&req_state=NA&req_statename=NA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 5, 2012 Share Posted October 5, 2012 00z ECM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted October 5, 2012 Share Posted October 5, 2012 Wow some pretty anomalous negative departures....540dm line makes a visit as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted October 5, 2012 Share Posted October 5, 2012 looks like the first real extended cool down of the season starts sunday - no 70 degree temps in site after saturday on the 6Z GFS for the next 16 days with the NAO forecasted to stay in neg territory http://wxweb.meteost...shtml?text=KEWR looks very 1976ish - even earlier if it holds where the last 70 degree reading that year was Oct 15th scroll down on this to see the monthly calendar http://www.wundergro...eq_statename=NA If it holds through the rest of the month I like 2002 as the better anlaog for this upcoming stretch. The 2002 switch occurred almost to the exact same day here in 2012!: Ocotober 2002: October 2012 so far: The other thing I'd like to compare 2012 to 2002 is the look/setup in the GOA during this same stretch in October of 2002. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted October 5, 2012 Share Posted October 5, 2012 2002/03 was such a fun winter.. I can't believe it's 10 years ago.. I remember it like it was yesterday.. December 25, 2002, and Mid February 2003.. Great winter.. Where on earth did 10 years go.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 5, 2012 Share Posted October 5, 2012 Tell me about it..getting old sucks :-) 2002/03 was such a fun winter.. I can't believe it's 10 years ago.. I remember it like it was yesterday.. December 25, 2002, and Mid February 2003.. Great winter.. Where on earth did 10 years go.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 5, 2012 Share Posted October 5, 2012 better hope this goes away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 5, 2012 Share Posted October 5, 2012 Yeah, the mid-month pattern is starting to look more La Nina than El Nino with the EPO rising positive again after the cool down. If the EPO stays positive to neutral for the rest of the month, then the cool departures around the 13th will be the lowest for the whole month as the temperatures rebound after. It may be due to the Nino peaking early in the Pacific as we head into a possibly neutral winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 5, 2012 Share Posted October 5, 2012 1976 had a cooler September and August... year........Aug...Sep...Oct...Nov...Dec...Jan... 1976......74.3...66.6...52.9...41.7...29.9...22.1 2012......76.7...68.8... 1981- 2010 average. 75.5...68.4...57.5...48.0...37.9...33.1 1976... 8/31...50 degrees ties the all time lowest temperature for August...61 was the lowest in 2012... 9/14...89 degrees...Highest September Temperature...91 in 2012... 9/23...47 degrees...Lowest September temperature...53 in 2012 10/8...73 degrees...Highest temperature for October... 10/19 34 degrees...near record low... 10/27 29 degrees...record low and one degree off the all time October low...max was 42... 10/28 29 degrees again... 11/9...24 degrees...Record low for the date...below normal from the 5th to 25th... 11/27 61 degrees...Highest for November... 11/30 17 degrees...27 degrees max... 12/3.....9 degrees...Record low for the date... 12/7...55 degrees...Highest for December... 12/14 12 degrees...record low for the date... 12/26 3.1" of snow...First measurable snowfall... 1/17....-2 degrees...record low for the date... I don't see 2012-13 being as cold as 1976-77... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted October 5, 2012 Share Posted October 5, 2012 1976 had a cooler September and August... year........Aug...Sep...Oct...Nov...Dec...Jan... 1976......74.3...66.6...52.9...41.7...29.9...22.1 2012......76.7...68.8... 1981- 2010 average. 75.5...68.4...57.5...48.0...37.9...33.1 1976... 8/31...50 degrees ties the all time lowest temperature for August...61 was the lowest in 2012... 9/14...89 degrees...Highest September Temperature...91 in 2012... 9/23...47 degrees...Lowest September temperature...53 in 2012 10/8...73 degrees...Highest temperature for October... 10/19 34 degrees...near record low... 10/27 29 degrees...record low and one degree off the all time October low...max was 42... 10/28 29 degrees again... 11/9...24 degrees...Record low for the date...below normal from the 5th to 25th... 11/27 61 degrees...Highest for November... 11/30 17 degrees...27 degrees max... 12/3.....9 degrees...Record low for the date... 12/7...55 degrees...Highest for December... 12/14 12 degrees...record low for the date... 12/26 3.1" of snow...First measurable snowfall... 1/17....-2 degrees...record low for the date... I don't see 2012-13 being as cold as 1976-77... How cold was 2002-03 in relation to 1976-77? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 5, 2012 Share Posted October 5, 2012 year........Aug...Sep...Oct...Nov...Dec...Jan... 1976......74.3...66.6...52.9...41.7...29.9...22.1 2002......77.7...70.2...55.2...46.0...36.0...27.5 2012......76.7...68.8... 1981- 2010 average. 75.5...68.4...57.5...48.0...37.9...33.1 I don't have 2002's dailies in front of me...I remember the early sleet we got on two consecutive evenings in late October 2002... Aug max/min was 98/60... Sep max/min was 91/54 Oct max/min was 84/36 Nov max/min was 68/24 Dec max/min was 60/19 Jan max/min was 50/7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted October 5, 2012 Share Posted October 5, 2012 year........Aug...Sep...Oct...Nov...Dec...Jan... 1976......74.3...66.6...52.9...41.7...29.9...22.1 2002......77.7...70.2...55.2...46.0...36.0...27.5 2012......76.7...68.8... 1981- 2010 average. 75.5...68.4...57.5...48.0...37.9...33.1 I don't have 2002's dailies in front of me...I remember the early sleet we got on two consecutive evenings in late October 2002... Aug max/min was 98/60... Sep max/min was 91/54 Oct max/min was 84/36 Nov max/min was 68/24 Dec max/min was 60/19 Jan max/min was 50/7 Thank you! Very interesting. It will begin to get more interesting if October 2012 comes in between the 52.9-55.2 mark lol. Looking at December and January 1976 and I've got to think seeing something like that would be quite dramatic so I agree with you that 2012-13 being as cold as 1976-77 would be quite the feat. By the way I used to have all this in a spreadsheet but it got erased from my thumb drive accidentally so thanks for taking the time to do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted October 5, 2012 Share Posted October 5, 2012 The way its looking "currently" this winter may end up not being much better than the last. We all should know that can change quickly though. No GOA low again like last winter though, that was the kiss of death Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 5, 2012 Share Posted October 5, 2012 October 2009 had a cold damp (snowy Mountains) mid month event...It was one of the coolest mid month periods on record...I hope this years mid month cool down equals that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted October 5, 2012 Share Posted October 5, 2012 October 2009 had a cold damp (snowy Mountains) mid month event...It was one of the coolest mid month periods on record...I hope this years mid month cool down equals that... I am starting to like the fall of 1963 as an analog... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted October 5, 2012 Share Posted October 5, 2012 October 2009 had a cold damp (snowy Mountains) mid month event...It was one of the coolest mid month periods on record...I hope this years mid month cool down equals that... 6Z GFS had something like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted October 5, 2012 Share Posted October 5, 2012 It looks like for the next 2 weeks or so we average below normal and the last 10 days of October look around average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 5, 2012 Share Posted October 5, 2012 I am starting to like the fall of 1963 as an analog... October and November 63 were way above average...October 63 had a week of record or near record highs the second half of the month...1963-64 was an epic winter...One of my all time favorites... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 5, 2012 Share Posted October 5, 2012 Coldest five day periods for October... mean........dates.........max/min... 40.2...10/27-31/1925...56...29 41.2...10/18-22/1940...55...30 41.8...10/21-25/1889...51...32 42.6...10/18-22/1974...63...31 42.7...10/26-30/1876...55...34 43.0...10/26-30/1976...60...29 43.0...10/27-31/1936...56...28 43.5...10/15-19/2009...55...37 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 5, 2012 Share Posted October 5, 2012 Looks like if the GFS is right we'll see our first widespread frost next weekend (outside urban areas of course) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted October 5, 2012 Share Posted October 5, 2012 Mid October 2009 was pretty sweet.. Very cold/stormy period.. I was up in RI during that event and saw some snowflakes.. As someone else said- the interior did okay w/ that event.. We all know how December 2009 (For Long Island) and Feb 2010 turned out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 5, 2012 Share Posted October 5, 2012 The way its looking "currently" this winter may end up not being much better than the last. We all should know that can change quickly though. No GOA low again like last winter though, that was the kiss of death To me this winter is highly uncertain, there is no clear ENSO signal. It's probably going to be very variable and highly dependent on short term features that we can barely predict for than 1-2 weeks out. And given how things turned out last October to winter, it doesn't really matter what happens this month because it will mean absolutely nothing for the winter. The only thing that will really matter is how quickly the ice can refreeze and snowcover can build up north really, we got a lot of catching up to do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted October 5, 2012 Share Posted October 5, 2012 To me this winter is highly uncertain, there is no clear ENSO signal. It's probably going to be very variable and highly dependent on short term features that we can barely predict for than 1-2 weeks out. And given how things turned out last October to winter, it doesn't really matter what happens this month because it will mean absolutely nothing for the winter. The only thing that will really matter is how quickly the ice can refreeze and snowcover can build up north really, we got a lot of catching up to do. I heard in another forum that the eurasian snowcover (which is very important) is looking better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 5, 2012 Share Posted October 5, 2012 I heard in another forum that the eurasian snowcover (which is very important) is looking better. Do you know which forum or where I could find that info. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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