Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,607
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    NH8550
    Newest Member
    NH8550
    Joined

October 2012 Observations & Discussions


earthlight

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 625
  • Created
  • Last Reply

The 18z GFS also has this system for next Monday-Tuesday. Probably is a cold rain on this frame, but it's something to watch in the medium range, especially with favorable teleconnections as I mentioned in my previous post.

Such a storm would also impact recovery efforts, but the intensity is progged to be MUCH weaker than Sandy. The energy associated with this storm still needs to be sampled, so there still remains a good deal of uncertainty with how far west the precipitation shield will get and if the storm heads OTS or not, but it is an interesting feature especially since we are progged to have a +PNA and -NAO during this timeframe.

Pretty chilly storm if this were to verify.

gfs_namer_147_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The energy behind that storm looks interesting to me. It's a long way out but i think we will atleast see something wintry before this crazy -NAO period ends

Hadn't even noticed that after the system moved through. It definitely does look interesting though.

Second storm also looks to have a bit of a cooler air mass than the first storm had.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Hadn't even noticed that after the system moved through. It definitely does look interesting though.

Second storm also looks to have a bit of a cooler air mass than the first storm had.

Yeah, something to watch in the weather world other than the devastation left behind by sandy

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Given the OK to access our beachhouse in Point Pleasant Beach, NJ. Leaving tomorrow at 7:00 am. House was 1 1/2 blocks form the beach. I know it's not going to be good because we are located just down from where Fox News was reporting from their Hotel on Ocean Ave. and Washington Ave.

Going on a Recon mission basically to see how bad the property is. You never know, maybe we got lucky somehow.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Given the OK to access our beachhouse in Point Pleasant Beach, NJ. Leaving tomorrow at 7:00 am. House was 1 1/2 blocks form the beach. I know it's not going to be good because we are located just down from where Fox News was reporting from their Hotel on Ocean Ave. and Washington Ave.

Going on a Recon mission basically to see how bad the property is. You never know, maybe we got lucky somehow.

good luck! I hope you find your house ok. Keep us updated it was a bad surge but they always tend to show the worst on the news.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The signal is there for another big storm along the coast. GGEM shows it. I just don't want one right now. Alot of people are still cleaning up.

I think the models will eventually become stronger with this storm, as we are in a very amplified pattern at the moment, with a +PNA and a -NAO. Unfortunately, this storm has the worst timing possible. The ECMWF also was more amplified, but it was a bit too far east for the NYC area to see any meaningful precipitation. The GFS continues to give the area a wet snow/cold rain event per the Cool WX precipitation type graphics, but whether any of these solutions will verify or not is still up for grabs. It does seem likely though that there will be some sort of storm around the coast, whether it is a coastal hugger or a more OTS scenario.

Here is the 06z GFS showing a modest storm of sub 996 mb just off the east coast of LI.

f162.gif

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Teleconnections give this threat a green light. We've got a fairly impressive Archambault signal w/ a rapid rise in both the AO and NAO index over the next 10 days. AO values will transition from 2 SD below normal to well into the positive territory. NAO is neutralizing quickly, and we have a MJO phase 2 wave which argues for Eastern troughing/storminess at this time of year. Obviously these factors don't make it a lock, but the risk is heightened, unfortunately poorly timed, for a nor'easter next week. At this early stage climo would favor the interior for frozen precip, but the pattern in place, as we know, has been very anomalous w/ the level of blocking. So I would not be surprised to see some white stuff in the air.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Teleconnections give this threat a green light. We've got a fairly impressive Archambault signal w/ a rapid rise in both the AO and NAO index over the next 10 days. AO values will transition from 2 SD below normal to well into the positive territory. NAO is neutralizing quickly, and we have a MJO phase 2 wave which argues for Eastern troughing/storminess at this time of year. Obviously these factors don't make it a lock, but the risk is heightened, unfortunately poorly timed, for a nor'easter next week. At this early stage climo would favor the interior for frozen precip, but the pattern in place, as we know, has been very anomalous w/ the level of blocking. So I would not be surprised to see some white stuff in the air.

Agreed. And I think after this storm the pattern will break down for a while. Its a long way out but the models have been trending stronger with the storm and it's consistently off the coast.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Teleconnections give this threat a green light. We've got a fairly impressive Archambault signal w/ a rapid rise in both the AO and NAO index over the next 10 days. AO values will transition from 2 SD below normal to well into the positive territory. NAO is neutralizing quickly, and we have a MJO phase 2 wave which argues for Eastern troughing/storminess at this time of year. Obviously these factors don't make it a lock, but the risk is heightened, unfortunately poorly timed, for a nor'easter next week. At this early stage climo would favor the interior for frozen precip, but the pattern in place, as we know, has been very anomalous w/ the level of blocking. So I would not be surprised to see some white stuff in the air.

the forecast was for the ao/nao to be a lot higher than it is...October probably ends up with the lowest AO monthly value on record or close to a record...It can only go up but how high and how long does it go positive?...One thing we don't need is a coastal storm...That would make things a lot worse...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

There's definitely going to be a bunch of cold air with this storm, and I think that there could be flakes into the area, especially into the NW Burbs. The ECMWF advertises a period in KTTN where there would be temperatures in the mid 30s when 850s are below 0 at the end of the storm.

So 0.6 QPF on the ECM in KTTN could be some wet snow mixed in, though it is definitely questionable/debatable with regard to whether some of that precipitation at the end actually is falling as frozen precipitation or not.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...