SnoSki14 Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 This is a total fallacy/misconception that I hope we can forget about by winter. Just because all of the global models show something similar at Day 7 does not mean it has an increased chance of happening. I disagree, I think if the all the models are sniffing something out then there is definitely something on the horizon. Large pattern changes are brought upon by a big storm sometimes, models can sense pattern shifts in the medium ranges and nobody complains, why can't it mean the same thing for storm systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 I disagree, I think if the all the models are sniffing something out then there is definitely something on the horizon. Large pattern changes are brought upon by a big storm sometimes, models can sense pattern shifts in the medium ranges and nobody complains, why can't it mean the same thing for storm systems. It's much harder to accurately forecast surface low pressure systems when compared to conditions aloft. That's why you see people looking at changes at 500mb when tracking a potential snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Crazy to see so much activity on the boards for a threat that still remains 7 days out. One word: Boredom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 High temp of 59º so far here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 High of 54 today with about .11" of rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 starting next week a wide area of extended period of below normal temps forecasted http://www.cpc.ncep....day/fxus06.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 If the Sun-Wed period is well below normal it could be enough to push us below for the month despite highs in the 70s Fri-Sat...though the lack of clear cool nights will probably mean we finish above by around a degree. Looks like we'll be in mostly cloudy or wet conditions for the remainder of the month with the exception of Friday afternoon starting next week a wide area of extended period of below normal temps forecasted http://www.cpc.ncep....day/fxus06.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 High of 56 here so far today. Not exactly a torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 70s aren't that far south of here High of 56 here so far today. Not exactly a torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 70s aren't that far south of here Ok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 70s aren't that far south of here Doesn't matter if they're only 10 miles south of here. We're all sitting in the 50s, which for most of us is a little below normal if anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Blocking is saving CNJ northward from the torch, but believe me, it's hot as hell down here in Villanova PA right now. We had a high of 76F today, 72F right now. After the cooler days/nights this month, 70+ feels so warm. So it is very much a torch from PHL area and even western NJ / Lehigh Valley southwestward. SW NJ temps are near 80 right now. Looks like a classic spring backdoor with eastern NJ NE in the low clouds and mist with temps in the 50s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Blocking is saving CNJ northward from the torch, but believe me, it's hot as hell down here in Villanova PA right now. We had a high of 76F today, 72F right now. After the cooler days/nights this month, 70+ feels so warm. So it is very much a torch from PHL area and even western NJ / Lehigh Valley southwestward. SW NJ temps are near 80 right now. Looks like a classic spring backdoor with eastern NJ NE in the low clouds and mist with temps in the 50s. 54 for a high here.. On and off lgt rain as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 I hit 71 today...nice to still be working in shorts and short sleeves...I would think that october positive departures are much different and much warmer in Trenton/New Brunswick than NYC/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 64 for the high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 I hit 71 today...nice to still be working in shorts and short sleeves...I would think that october positive departures are much different and much warmer in Trenton/New Brunswick than NYC/ Whats ur plan after the storm? We are having a early falll, every leaf is going to fall....might just do storm clean-up/fall from here on out....going to be to many leaves to do a daily mow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 I hit 71 today...nice to still be working in shorts and short sleeves...I would think that october positive departures are much different and much warmer in Trenton/New Brunswick than NYC/ Thru the 26th, +2.1 at TTN versus NYC's +1.0. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Whats ur plan after the storm? We are having a early falll, every leaf is going to fall....might just do storm clean-up/fall from here on out....going to be to many leaves to do a daily mow We pretty much mow and take care of some of the leaves each time we go, some places we blow beds out every time, some we dont, it depends. Yeah pretty much now weekly cutting of everyone is over though and I would imagine we might not get back to work until Thursday with all the wetness, hopefully there are not too many limbs and branches to pick up but Im really dreaming there. the leafs were dropping early this year and Sandy will take care of the rest, and I dont mind that, the earlier the better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted October 31, 2012 Share Posted October 31, 2012 I think the flooding broke the ASOS at LGA. They're 5 degrees warmer than the next station and this time there's no wind off the water excuse to explain their warmth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted October 31, 2012 Share Posted October 31, 2012 I think the flooding broke the ASOS at LGA. They're 5 degrees warmer than the next station and this time there's no wind off the water excuse to explain their warmth. Well, that's assuming the ASOS isn't STILL in the river. Based on some of the photos from LGA, it may be. The temperature directly over the water, if there is still water, could well be influencing the ASOS significantly. There didn't seem to be issues with it yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted October 31, 2012 Share Posted October 31, 2012 Well, that's assuming the ASOS isn't STILL in the river. Based on some of the photos from LGA, it may be. The temperature directly over the water, if there is still water, could well be influencing the ASOS significantly. There didn't seem to be issues with it yesterday. Yea I didn't think of that. They're a stone's throw away from the water. The temperatures throughout the tristate stations are pretty uniform also, with a range of only 2 or 3 degrees. Its not like we had an intense radiational cooling night. LGA just doesn't sound right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted October 31, 2012 Share Posted October 31, 2012 The day 6 through day 7 timeframe looks pretty interesting for the area. The teleconnections look to be favorable, and there is some potential for a storm system IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmyB Posted October 31, 2012 Share Posted October 31, 2012 Lol, how about 90+kt winds at 850mb on the Euro. The ultimate autumn fantasy storm. hmm.. went back through this thread after seeing a story on the Today show this morning.. they had a piece about the Euro this morning and how it had this storm 10 days ago.. crazy.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JonClaw Posted October 31, 2012 Share Posted October 31, 2012 hmm.. went back through this thread after seeing a story on the Today show this morning.. they had a piece about the Euro this morning and how it had this storm 10 days ago.. crazy.. Think the Euro is going to be the favorite model this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmyB Posted October 31, 2012 Share Posted October 31, 2012 Think the Euro is going to be the favorite model this winter. most certainly! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 31, 2012 Share Posted October 31, 2012 I ended up with 0.85" of rain from sandy...the winds were the strongest I ever experienced...many trees down and there is no power a few blocks from be... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted October 31, 2012 Share Posted October 31, 2012 if you believe the 12z GFS we'll be -5 for november by mid month...as well as several frozen threats especially for NW burbs. (needed to get my mind off the devastation from sandy) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted October 31, 2012 Share Posted October 31, 2012 if you believe the 12z GFS we'll be -5 for november by mid month...as well as several frozen threats especially for NW burbs. (needed to get my mind off the devastation from sandy) Hopefully power is restored to all before any of these frozen threats... Alot of ppl in Orange Cty still in the dark.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted October 31, 2012 Share Posted October 31, 2012 if you believe the 12z GFS we'll be -5 for november by mid month...as well as several frozen threats especially for NW burbs. (needed to get my mind off the devastation from sandy) The -NAO seems to mitigate any warmth that the -PNA is trying to pull into the eastern part of the United States on the 12z GFS towards the long range. Blocking into November is a very good sign going into the winter season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted October 31, 2012 Share Posted October 31, 2012 Wow. Temperature only reached 46 Degrees here in C NJ. Down to 44 Degrees. Solid -12 degree departure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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