SnowGoose69 Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 I love the monstrous GOA low at 240 hours on the Euro...I'm surprised nobody anywhere started shaking when they saw that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
okie333 Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 7-8 days out you forecast becomes much more heavily weighted toward climo, a climo track for anythnig that forms in the caribbean is out to sea. Its actually an easy forecast at this stage. And exactly how is a -2SD NAO climo? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 I love the monstrous GOA low at 240 hours on the Euro...I'm surprised nobody anywhere started shaking when they saw that. that thing is the kiss of death for us if it sticks around for a while like "cough-cough 2011-12 winter" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 It does also have ensemble support per one of the mets in the New England forum, but the ensembles also show it starting to erode away towards the end of their run. Something to keep an eye on. I love the monstrous GOA low at 240 hours on the Euro...I'm surprised nobody anywhere started shaking when they saw that. that thing is the kiss of death for us if it sticks around for a while like "cough-cough 2011-12 winter" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Euro has one of the best phases you will ever see on a model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 1938, Jersey style. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Again when the KMA does this (00Z), it gets your attention. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 6z GFS continues with the OTS theme. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 I think the models are showing their biases at this range, with future Sandy. The GFS breaking down the West Atlantic ridge too much. The ECMWF and GGEM being overphased. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 I think the models are showing their biases at this range, with future Sandy. The GFS breaking down the West Atlantic ridge too much. The ECMWF and GGEM being overphased. It looks like the Euro ensembles are showing an intermediate option of a track between the OP and GFS instead of getting pulled in to our SW and back into the Lakes. I will like to see what the models are showing once this starts moving north and the trough details begin to come into a little better focus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 The nam has a much sharper trough out west like the candaian. GFS flattens it out still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 I think the models are showing their biases at this range, with future Sandy. The GFS breaking down the West Atlantic ridge too much. The ECMWF and GGEM being overphased. Remember the Euro did very well with boxing day in the longer range so I wouldn't write it off completely. At the same time what its showing today is just insane and it would take one hell of a miracle to verify. Im going with the middle of the road idea with a typical not 100 year esk noreaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 HPC has the low near the coast on their 7 day outlook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Remember the Euro did very well with boxing day in the longer range so I wouldn't write it off completely. At the same time what its showing today is just insane and it would take one hell of a miracle to verify. Im going with the middle of the road idea with a typical not 100 year esk noreaster. I think the Euro had the boxing day storm for 4 straight runs, before losing it. So far it's only 2 straight runs with this one. For now, I like a solution somewhere in between too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 HPC has the low near the coast on their 7 day outlook. HPC has a 992 low off of Hatteras at day seven - how it interacts with the system coming in from the west is still a mystery http://www.hpc.ncep....fcst_wbgpre.gif \ 12Z GFS shows another east out to sea solution and no phase http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/12zgfs850mbTSLPp06162.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 12z GGEM continues to show a bomb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 12z GGEM continues to show a bomb Yeah... 944mb low slamming into ACY @ h168 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 22, 2012 Author Share Posted October 22, 2012 Crazy to see so much activity on the boards for a threat that still remains 7 days out. It is important to remember the potential fluctuations on guidance even at this range can have incredible implications down the road, especially when you're dealing with this phased solution as advertised. I suppose the potential is higher than usual for something big given the blocking pattern both in the high latitudes and even down into the North Atlantic...but we won't know anything for a few days at least. The GFS is still fluctuating with the upper level low in the North Atlantic/Newfoundland and that has big implications on the storm as well. Anyway...here's your daily GGEM superstorm graphic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Crazy to see so much activity on the boards for a threat that still remains 7 days out. It is important to remember the potential fluctuations on guidance even at this range can have incredible implications down the road, especially when you're dealing with this phased solution as advertised. I suppose the potential is higher than usual for something big given the blocking pattern both in the high latitudes and even down into the North Atlantic...but we won't know anything for a few days at least. The GFS is still fluctuating with the upper level low in the North Atlantic/Newfoundland and that has big implications on the storm as well. Anyway...here's your daily GGEM superstorm graphic. now thats a graphic worth saving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Crazy to see so much activity on the boards for a threat that still remains 7 days out. It is important to remember the potential fluctuations on guidance even at this range can have incredible implications down the road, especially when you're dealing with this phased solution as advertised. I suppose the potential is higher than usual for something big given the blocking pattern both in the high latitudes and even down into the North Atlantic...but we won't know anything for a few days at least. The GFS is still fluctuating with the upper level low in the North Atlantic/Newfoundland and that has big implications on the storm as well. Anyway...here's your daily GGEM superstorm graphic. Probably a breezy day with that tight pressure gradient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 22, 2012 Author Share Posted October 22, 2012 The Canadian is still very different aloft despite having a similar solution at the surface -- there are still major changes in the handling of the trough over the Central US. Before 132 hrs the trough is definitely flatter and less energetic than the 00z run, but by 138hrs a strong shortwave is just racing south and east from the plains..which eventually scoops up the tropical storm and ignites the phase. Here's a graphic to keep...what a solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 12z nogaps is a monster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Gfs likes to flatten out trough energy. We all know this from winter. On the other hand, the cmc and euro both have a reputation of going crazy with storms and phases. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 lol the NOGAPS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Every subforum has its own thread but us lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 22, 2012 Author Share Posted October 22, 2012 Every subforum has its own thread but us lol. Do the honors if you wish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 If the ECM has the bomb...by all means start a thread. Sent from Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 The latest gfs came further west and is more amped, The fact that a majority of models show a crazy storm 6-7 days out usually means somethings going to happen, it's unlikely just a strange coincidence. The -NAO that's expected to continue if not get a bit more negative strongly suggests a storm near the east coast and if we're dealing with a tropical influence, then things could get very interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 22, 2012 Author Share Posted October 22, 2012 The fact that a majority of models show a crazy storm 6-7 days out usually means somethings going to happen This is a total fallacy/misconception that I hope we can forget about by winter. Just because all of the global models show something similar at Day 7 does not mean it has an increased chance of happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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