Alpha5 Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 I can't recall one either. The hype should really get going in the community if this stuff continues to be shown on the long range guidance tomorrow. The GFS has been pretty good in the medium range over the last couple of weeks, but the GEFS height anomalies have been a little overdone, or at least they were with the last positive height anomaly episode in the high latitudes. That being said, there is both a ridge over Greenland which extends towards the Davis Straight, and another being modeled north of the Aleutians with + anomalies extending even over the pole. So this could get pretty interesting . Also key is the progression of the trough coming in from the west. Depending on how that trough is oriented and how fast it comes through will highly alter the track of the storm. A negatively tilted trough could help bring in some cold air and maybe wintery weather on the back end before the storm becomes vertically stacked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 Euro at 174 looks awesome. Big storm just off the Carolinas. Big time trough energy diving in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 Wow, the storm is getting captured Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 Landfall just south of cape may. That trough is serious Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 talk about a complete disaster in many areas - this is unbelievable http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/12zgfsp72228.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 21, 2012 Author Share Posted October 21, 2012 talk about a complete disaster in many areas - this is unbelievable http://raleighwx.ame...2zgfsp72228.gif While we're in fantasy land the GFS also has a snowstorm for the suburbs on election day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 21, 2012 Author Share Posted October 21, 2012 Euro looks like 970-something over Ocean City MD at 186 hours. Crazy to see such wild solutions on all the globals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 21, 2012 Author Share Posted October 21, 2012 Lol, how about 90+kt winds at 850mb on the Euro. The ultimate autumn fantasy storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 Lol, how about 90+kt winds at 850mb on the Euro. The ultimate autumn fantasy storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 The high latitude blocking progged D7-10 makes this potential even more dramatic. Absolute tanking of the NAO by the end of October. That type of change alone would suggest increased chance of storminess along the East Coast. I think the main question is will we have a run of the mill autumn nor'easter / rainstorm pre fropa or perhaps something much more intense/tropical in nature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 The high latitude blocking progged D7-10 makes this potential even more dramatic. Absolute tanking of the NAO by the end of October. That type of change alone would suggest increased chance of storminess along the East Coast. I think the main question is will we have a run of the mill autumn nor'easter / rainstorm pre fropa or perhaps something much more intense/tropical in nature. NAO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 12z ECM NAO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 21, 2012 Author Share Posted October 21, 2012 Here's a closer look at it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 This is a weather weenie wet dream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 21, 2012 Author Share Posted October 21, 2012 The euro is much sharper/more amplified with the Central/Eastern US trough, which is interesting in comparison to the GFS. Both have the tropical system, but it is interesting to see how the amplification of the ridge out west plays into the eventual development of the Central/Eastern US trough and its interaction with the system in the Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 850 mb winds are even stronger over the NYC metro area by 186 hours. Pretty much a 12 hour period of very intense winds ranging from 80-100+ knots (at 850mbs) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 Anyone want to venture a guess as to what actual effects we would have if this beast verified? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 I think that confidence will probably start to go up on a specific track once this begins a northward move between 72-96 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 12Z KMA Hour 180. When the KMA, which is bad with tropical systems, and has a progressive bias, shows this, you know somethings up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 12Z KMA Hour 180. When the KMA, which is bad with tropical systems, and has a progressive bias, shows this, you know somethings up. yea alot of models showing a very intense storm on the east coast for this time frame. this is gonna be a downright crazy week here in forecasting this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 21, 2012 Author Share Posted October 21, 2012 The new GFS is a ways farther east with the tropical system -- just an idea of the variance we can see here at this range despite most global models showing something similar on one model guidance suite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 The new GFS is a ways farther east with the tropical system -- just an idea of the variance we can see here at this range despite most global models showing something similar on one model guidance suite. Well it is the 18Z GFS lol. Wouldn't ever use it to predict anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 The new GFS is a ways farther east with the tropical system -- just an idea of the variance we can see here at this range despite most global models showing something similar on one model guidance suite. It looks like the change form 12z was a result of the big cutoff to the east getting closer and breaking down the ridge to the NE. It will probably take several more days for the models to settle on a single solution. Should be interesting to watch over the next few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 7-8 days out you forecast becomes much more heavily weighted toward climo, a climo track for anythnig that forms in the caribbean is out to sea. Its actually an easy forecast at this stage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billgwx Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 It looks like the change form 12z was a result of the big cutoff to the east getting closer and breaking down the ridge to the NE. It will probably take several more days for the models to settle on a single solution. Should be interesting to watch over the next few days. That's pretty much it...and of course Bermuda reels it in. Then the upper trough to the west finally spins up its own strong low. Low predictability with high potential impact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 The storm eventually does phase with the trough and we still get a decent amount of precipitation from this system, but not nearly as much as the 12z gave the area. It's also colder than the 12z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 That's pretty much it...and of course Bermuda reels it in. Then the upper trough to the west finally spins up its own strong low. Low predictability with high potential impact. Yeah, the whole pattern is loaded with potential. I am guessing the details will probably come into better focus once the storm begins the anticipated northward move in a couple of days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 21, 2012 Author Share Posted October 21, 2012 Check out the massive North Atlantic omega block at the end of the Euro run..it's in la la land but pretty cool to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 That's pretty much it...and of course Bermuda reels it in. Then the upper trough to the west finally spins up its own strong low. Low predictability with high potential impact. With the huge blocking, it's almost a ticking time bomb for some storm to happen. Whether it's a typical strong nor'easter or something more substantial with Sandy remains to be seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 With the huge blocking, it's almost a ticking time bomb for some storm to happen. Whether it's a typical strong nor'easter or something more substantial with Sandy remains to be seen. i know this is amazing blocking. can only imagine the excitement in here if this was two months later and a fresh cold air mass to deal with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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