Isotherm Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 What a great day felt like I never left LA when I came home. Very california-like out there today. Now there's a nice chill in the air more northeast style. Looks like we ride cotinue warmer than normal through the end of next week with the las tfew days of the month potentially chilly. Yeah had the firepit going tonight, beautiful and chilly out there. Down to 49 now after a high of 70. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 Yeah had the firepit going tonight, beautiful and chilly out there. Down to 49 now after a high of 70. This cool night is nothing compared to the cold building in the long-range with the double block (-NAO/-EPO). It's interesting that the pattern since August has been rather Niña-ish, with cold air pouring into Central Canada and the Plains/Upper Midwest while the West Atlantic High/SE Ridge keeps us warmer than average. Still not much sign of a Niño pattern where the Southeast sees the coldest departures while the Northern Tier torches. It'll be interesting to see if we have a strong poleward Aleutian High as we did during Winter 10-11. That could create a decent gradient and some very cold airmasses, though global temperatures are doubtless warmer than that winter. Anyway, down to 53.5/45 here after a high of 69.6F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 DT declared Nino dead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 WOW: https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/257946287071170560/photo/1/large Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 WOW: https://twitter.com/...0/photo/1/large That's an old run of the Euro from 10/15. The new run, however does it show it very cold in the Intermountain West/High Plains around Day 7-8. 850s are -15C near the MT/Canada border; with snowcover, temperatures could easily get near 0F in the higher areas of the region. The coldest air does retreat from the US however as the trough looks to cut off while the main vortex migrates to Hudson Bay/Manitoba with 850s near -20C. Hopefully that starts the freezing of the Bay so our cold isn't modified by early December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 21, 2012 Author Share Posted October 21, 2012 The 00z CMC is still wild and has the big time phase between the tropical system and tremendous Central US trough. Highly unlikely but awesome to look at nonetheless Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 00z Euro is on board with the HurriSystem at 240 though and not as insane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 Looks like the Euro took a step towards the CMC in regards to the tropical system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 The 6z GFS washes New England away. Has the tropical system churning over new England for days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 It's going to be fun tracking the tropical development with so much blocking to the north coupled with the deep trough that the models are bring in near the end of the month. It will be interesting to see what the models come up with once this is declared a TD or TS by the NHC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 The 6z GFS is also honing in on the CMC's idea of phasing the tropical system with the trough in the east, though it is somewhat weaker than the CMC. It has a pretty substantial, (and cold) system for that matter for our area. The GFS has temperatures in the mid to upper 30s to the low 40s when it is precipitating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 21, 2012 Author Share Posted October 21, 2012 It's going to be fun tracking the tropical development with so much blocking to the north coupled with the deep trough that the models are bring in near the end of the month. It will be interesting to see what the models come up with once this is declared a TD or TS by the NHC. It sure is. The 12z GFS now has the tropical system being lifted north up the East Coast by 192 hours with a bit of a weaker trough over the Central US...but still a potent system and a threatening look to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 It sure is. The 12z GFS now has the tropical system being lifted north up the East Coast by 192 hours with a bit of a weaker trough over the Central US...but still a potent system and a threatening look to it. I see 1954 hazel comparisons on twitter& on the main forum, what do you think earthlight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 21, 2012 Author Share Posted October 21, 2012 I see 1954 hazel comparisons on twitter& on the main forum, what do you think earthlight? The upper level low moves north and then comes to a halt and drifts west over the Mid-Atlantic after 200 hours...total fantasy land but would be a wild solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 The upper level low moves north and then comes to a halt and drifts west over the Mid-Atlantic after 200 hours...total fantasy land but would be a wild solution. Yeah, something to track. Could be another wild Halloween around the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 The 12z GFS has ~970mb system that dumps anywhere from 10-15in of rain over 100 hours. Could only imagine the impact that this would have in terms of flooding, wind, beach erosion etc. And now the GFS, CMC and to some degree the Euro have a tropical system that interacts with a trough. Wild solution for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 What an awesome run. The tropical system is already off the SE coast in 5 days per the globals. This map right here would make up for a lame summer..Wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 It sure is. The 12z GFS now has the tropical system being lifted north up the East Coast by 192 hours with a bit of a weaker trough over the Central US...but still a potent system and a threatening look to it. The wind field really begins to expand on the 12 GFS when it is over the Bahamas. The models are showing the STJ cutting under the system and a coupled jet structure developing. If this verified, this would be a very large and powerful storm with the effects being felt a good distance from the center. It will be really interesting to see how the storm interacts with the trough coming in from the west beyond 120 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 So hawt if this came true. Winds would probably rival the March 2010 Nor'Easter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 The 12z GGEM has a 983mb low off SE FL at 144hr. Expect another big time phased solution. http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/595_100.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 Woahh...those hi-res images give a better idea of the storms strength. 960, with a 1032 high sitting in central canada. Geez. I think winds would beat March 2010, if this solution (or CMC with 954 over DC) verified. Its fun to look at but lets see some consistency. Its great we all have something to follow for a wk or so now though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 Wild, but this is 10 days away....definitely appears to be some potential however with more than one model showing a phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 21, 2012 Author Share Posted October 21, 2012 The wind field really begins to expand on the 12 GFS when it is over the Bahamas. The models are showing the STJ cutting under the system and a coupled jet structure developing. If this verified, this would be a very large and powerful storm with the effects being felt a good distance from the center. It will be really interesting to see how the storm interacts with the trough coming in from the west beyond 120 hrs. Great maps and illustration. One of the things I would watch carefully are the modeled height anomalies over the North Atlantic and even the extent of the high latitude blocking...both in relation to the tropical system moving north and the big trough forecast to shift through the Central US and capture it. At this range, both of those are so uncertain and that makes the entire solution complete fantasy at this point, still. Although, I will say it is very interesting to see the big global models all showing the same idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 12z Nogaps is on board http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NOGAPS_12z/nogapsloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 12z CMC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 Earthlight it isnt very often we see this many globals on board with a solution 10 days out. These runs taken as is would produce a storm to remember for lots of people, but tons of stuff to iron out as we head through this upcoming week. If the cold air is there we could certainly also see some good snows with this well inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 Great maps and illustration. One of the things I would watch carefully are the modeled height anomalies over the North Atlantic and even the extent of the high latitude blocking...both in relation to the tropical system moving north and the big trough forecast to shift through the Central US and capture it. At this range, both of those are so uncertain and that makes the entire solution complete fantasy at this point, still. Although, I will say it is very interesting to see the big global models all showing the same idea. Yeah, the blocking part of this story will be an important part of resolving the ultimate track and when the trough interaction occurs. I don't think that I have seen a TC coming north through the Bahamas with the type of 500 mb high latitude height anomalies that the models are showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 full moon at the end of the month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 Im in Central/Western NY This would make me happy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 21, 2012 Author Share Posted October 21, 2012 Yeah, the blocking part of this story will be an important part of resolving the ultimate track and when the trough interaction occurs. I don't think that I have seen a TC coming north through the Bahamas with the type of 500 mb high latitude height anomalies that the models are showing. I can't recall one either. The hype should really get going in the community if this stuff continues to be shown on the long range guidance tomorrow. The GFS has been pretty good in the medium range over the last couple of weeks, but the GEFS height anomalies have been a little overdone, or at least they were with the last positive height anomaly episode in the high latitudes. That being said, there is both a ridge over Greenland which extends towards the Davis Straight, and another being modeled north of the Aleutians with + anomalies extending even over the pole. So this could get pretty interesting . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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