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October 2012 Observations & Discussions


earthlight

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Impressive thunderstorms for October, especially after dark.

One cell SE of ACY was showing signs of rotation a little while ago, but has since weakened. MCS maintenance values are pretty good, so a lot of these storms may hold together. The only big problem I see, however, is CIN...

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Don't forget KHWV (Shirley) and KMTP (Montauk Point), they are still above 50 since 9PM obs. They may not be in the NYC metro area, but not far from it.

EDIT: Scratch that, the 50 degree reading at KHWV is old.

KMTP is an entirely exposed location, virtually buoy-like, so clearly it would be reluctant to cool off at night there.

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The strong Western Atlantic Ridge kept the coldest anomalies to our west like it has since the late summer.

Otherwise, this pattern is similar to ones that we saw on other Nino years in October. The other Nino Octobers

also featured -EPO/-NAO/-AO patterns. You can see how the US cold really stood out in 2009 which was the last

cooler year that we saw here before the warming since 2010.

2012

2009

2006

2002

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The strong Western Atlantic Ridge kept the coldest anomalies to our west like it has since the late summer.

Otherwise, this pattern is similar to ones that we saw on other Nino years in October. The other Nino Octobers

also featured -EPO/-NAO/-AO patterns. You can see how the US cold really stood out in 2009 which was the last

cooler year that we saw here before the warming since 2010.

2002

When was the last time we saw so many cold anomalies around the world?

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When was the last time we saw so many cold anomalies around the world?

For example, they had record breaking cold last February across Eurasia and North Africa with the

big block over the Russian Arctic.

December 2010 featured record breaking cold in the SE US and across Eurasia with the

plunge that we saw in the NAO.

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For example, they had record breaking cold last February across Eurasia and North Africa with the

big block over the Russian Arctic.

December 2010 featured record breaking cold in the SE US and across Eurasia with the

plunge that we saw in the NAO.

Sweet. Let's hope blocking sets up on our side of the globe this year.

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The blocking signals on the medium range ensembles are still impressive. Medium range ensemble means have a 552 dm ridge just north of the the Aleutians. This combined with another huge positive anomaly working from Greenland to the Davis Straight almost assures us a shot of cold air by around Halloween.

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What a great day felt like I never left LA when I came home. Very california-like out there today. Now there's a nice chill in the air more northeast style.

Looks like we ride cotinue warmer than normal through the end of next week with the las tfew days of the month potentially chilly.

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