Stormlover74 Posted October 17, 2012 Share Posted October 17, 2012 Pretty cool sunset as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted October 18, 2012 Share Posted October 18, 2012 Another night in the 30's incoming 40.6/37 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted October 18, 2012 Share Posted October 18, 2012 Has a low of 36 degrees. Much cooler than forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted October 18, 2012 Share Posted October 18, 2012 Has a low of 36 degrees. Much cooler than forecast. Was going to post this - my forecast low was 45 as of last night, ended up at 37.3F this morning with scattered frost on the ground. That makes 3 consecutive mornings in the 30s here. Should really hasten foliage change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted October 18, 2012 Share Posted October 18, 2012 Didn't break 50 here in Astoria. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted October 18, 2012 Share Posted October 18, 2012 Didn't break 50 here in Astoria. had a low of 46 here in southern queens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted October 18, 2012 Share Posted October 18, 2012 Didn't break 50 here in Astoria. Down to 47 here. The weak winds from earlier in the night helped out, finally. They've stayed up like every other night and that in combination with the wind of the river, Long Island Sound has kept my temps higher than they should be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted October 18, 2012 Share Posted October 18, 2012 The 12z NAM has an embedded low-topped squall line moving through NYC area, with the warm front, during rush hour tomorrow morning. Also a decent LLJ, hitting the shores: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted October 18, 2012 Share Posted October 18, 2012 Dropped to 35 up here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted October 18, 2012 Share Posted October 18, 2012 The 12z NAM has an embedded low-topped squall line moving through NYC area, with the warm front, during rush hour tomorrow morning. Also a decent LLJ, hitting the shores: That should be fun to drive in tomorrow. Though we've had luck lately with decent commutes on days that hosted a lot of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted October 18, 2012 Share Posted October 18, 2012 It looks like that as we head into November on the 12z GFS, a pretty strong cool shot comes in after the the mid range warm spell. The GEFS agree with the Operational on such an occurance (though less anomalous and smoothed out). The Mid Range Warm Up: http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/12zGFS6-10day850mbTempAnomalyNA.gif The Long Range Cool Down: http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/12zGFS11-15day850mbTempAnomalyNA.gif The GEFS in agreement with the Operational on such a cool down: http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/12zENS11-15day850mbTempAnomalyNA.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted October 18, 2012 Share Posted October 18, 2012 I posted my thoughts about the pattern going forward, and I think we're looking fairly mild through early November. Some signs of a cold outbreak once into the first week of November, but the MJO may not make phase 2 (or be strong amplitude in that phase). Also, the PNA is negative and is more strongly correlated to our weather at this time of year as I illustrated here.This pattern wouldn't be bad a couple months from now; only problem is, can we keep the blocking until then? Not so sure about that one yet.. http://www.nymetrowe...tinue/#more-936 http://www.lightinthestorm.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted October 19, 2012 Share Posted October 19, 2012 NAM stil showing very heavy rain tomorrow morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted October 19, 2012 Share Posted October 19, 2012 NAM stil showing very heavy rain tomorrow morning Is that the only model showing that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted October 19, 2012 Share Posted October 19, 2012 The firehose of precip the NAM has even on the 6z run on sim radar doesn't look too hot right now in reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 19, 2012 Share Posted October 19, 2012 The Western Atlantic Ridge has been the dominant player for us this fall so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 19, 2012 Author Share Posted October 19, 2012 The SREF severe weather probabilities are lighting up at 21z today...so we'll have to see if it has to do with any potential recovery after this precipitation shifts through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted October 19, 2012 Share Posted October 19, 2012 The Western Atlantic Ridge has been the dominant player for us this fall so far. Maybe we can capitalize on the warmer SSTs by providing more fuel for low formation off the coast. If still there in a couple months that should produce a nice baroclinic zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 19, 2012 Share Posted October 19, 2012 another bad job by the nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 19, 2012 Share Posted October 19, 2012 another bad job by the nam it has most of the precip to the east of the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 19, 2012 Share Posted October 19, 2012 Long range shows a -NAO and a -PNA becoming positive http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/forecasts/teleconn/images/compare.pn.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted October 19, 2012 Share Posted October 19, 2012 1.60" of rain so far today.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted October 19, 2012 Share Posted October 19, 2012 it has most of the precip to the east of the city. Been pretty common recently, no? Even the 6z was off by a good amount today. What could be causing that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted October 19, 2012 Share Posted October 19, 2012 2.40 for the event total Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted October 19, 2012 Share Posted October 19, 2012 2.19" up this way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted October 19, 2012 Share Posted October 19, 2012 Sun is out in S. Queens, didn't get that much rain here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted October 19, 2012 Share Posted October 19, 2012 2.40 for the event total Where you been bud? Yea your area got nailed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted October 19, 2012 Share Posted October 19, 2012 Where you been bud? Yea your area got nailed. im a winter guy, i browse on occasion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 19, 2012 Share Posted October 19, 2012 1.3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted October 19, 2012 Share Posted October 19, 2012 Parents got 1.38" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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